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wagneb

wagneb
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  • Paragon Offshore: A Spin-Off With Minimum 40% Upside Potential [View article]
    "I cannot find any real reason for this selloff." The stock is off mainly because of the lack of dividend yield support. People now understand that the $1per share dividend proposed by NE will actually start out closer to say 45cents, which is a current dividend yield of 5.6%. Secondly, EBITDA will be about $850m this year, possibly falling to $500m (the low, per management). Considering D&A and interest expense, that brings eps to about zero. That's a worst case, and even then an appropriate EV/EBITDA multiple would put the stock 50% higher. But that's my attempt to answer your question.
    Sep 6, 2014. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short AmerisourceBergen: There's No Easy Cure For What Ails This Drug Wholesaler [View article]
    A search of your article does not turn up the word "LIFO" once, which has an impact on your eps estimate for 2013 and thus your price target. You estimate 1.34eps in 2014, 64% below the consensus estimate of 3.69. You are projecting operating income dollars to fall 37% this coming year, while management projects it to grow over 12%. Much of the discrepancy comes from your unrealistic estimates for COGS and op margin, b/c you used the recent quarter to project the full year. 2nd half of '14 will see generics business at WAG ramp up and boost margins. In some ways it is similar to using the first 30days' margins in a newly opened, underutilized manufacturing facility to project that facility's profit margins 12months out... I don't suggest listening to management or the sell side without skepticism, but you may want to dig into your model a bit to see why your estimate of operating income dollars differ so drastically from the company's estimates. Best of luck.
    Mar 21, 2014. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg: Read Now, Buy Later [View article]
    14.4million shares are being offered. There will be 86million outstanding, so your eps calculations are off.
    Nov 15, 2013. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Value Investors Are Going To Cash [View article]
    The Shiller PE ratio is a fatally flawed metric, and you are now using it to incorrectly conclude that the market is more expensive than it is. The Shiller eps figure for Apple is $11.10, versus the $44.15 they earned in the recent year. So a fair PE value for this company would be say 12times Shiller 10year avg earnings or $133 per share. That figure is less than the cash and investments per share on Apple's balance sheet!!! Apple is just one example of why market valuation takes a little more work than Shiller's 10year average PE.
    Apr 4, 2013. 06:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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