GaryD's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/103178/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/99809-dow-upswing-getting-back-in-the-game?source=feed#comment-282604 282604
ECL ratios: www.reuters.com/financ...

Thanks!]]> Tue, 14 Oct 2008 23:52:31 -0400
ECL ratios: www.reuters.com/financ...

Thanks!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99460-is-gold-a-sucker-s-bet?source=feed#comment-280118 280118
That being said, I just sold all my gold since I am guessing that we are in a deflationary period right now. Historically, the first thing that happens in a deflation is that money "disappears" (ie is horded). I believe that this is what is happening at the retail level with gold and at the banking level with US dollars.

The growth in the money supply is massive right now. It is not leading to rises in consumer prices because the banks are hoarding money. If Paulson and company don't have a plan to get all that money back we could be in for a severe inflationary shock once money gets flowing again.

If I don't see the monetary base dropping when credit starts flowing again I'll be back into gold all the way.]]> Sat, 11 Oct 2008 19:47:11 -0400
That being said, I just sold all my gold since I am guessing that we are in a deflationary period right now. Historically, the first thing that happens in a deflation is that money "disappears" (ie is horded). I believe that this is what is happening at the retail level with gold and at the banking level with US dollars.

The growth in the money supply is massive right now. It is not leading to rises in consumer prices because the banks are hoarding money. If Paulson and company don't have a plan to get all that money back we could be in for a severe inflationary shock once money gets flowing again.

If I don't see the monetary base dropping when credit starts flowing again I'll be back into gold all the way.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97930-new-bank-data-latest-lending?source=feed#comment-269656 269656
The St. Louis Fed data series cited only goes to the end of July...not exactly a reflection of what is going on in the markets right now. Our fine Doctor of Piled High and Deep is looking at lagging and outdated numbers when he should be looking at interest rate spreads to get an idea of what is happening. He clearly has no functioning knowledge of capital markets. Does he think that Washington Mutual just decided to close up shop for the hell of it?

]]> Tue, 30 Sep 2008 12:20:25 -0400
The St. Louis Fed data series cited only goes to the end of July...not exactly a reflection of what is going on in the markets right now. Our fine Doctor of Piled High and Deep is looking at lagging and outdated numbers when he should be looking at interest rate spreads to get an idea of what is happening. He clearly has no functioning knowledge of capital markets. Does he think that Washington Mutual just decided to close up shop for the hell of it?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97583-worrying-about-large-deposit-bank-runs?source=feed#comment-266554 266554 Fri, 26 Sep 2008 21:33:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/96705-5-things-you-can-bet-on-following-the-treasury-s-plan?source=feed#comment-262828 262828 Tue, 23 Sep 2008 16:00:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/96041-is-the-current-crisis-really-as-bad-as-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-259740 259740
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Six days later (Six Freaking Days!) he says that we are in a banking crisis. What a complete and utter moron.

I am hereby proposing a "Mark Perry Contra Fund". The fund will take whatever dumbass statement Perry has made in the past week and bet on the opposite coming true.

For example, when he called a bottom in the housing market a couple months ago, you could have made a killing betting against him. If you bet against the dollar after his insane comments that the dollar was going to roar back you would have made a killing. The list goes on.

Of course, his bum chum buddies have banned short selling so it'll be tough to execute on this strategy, but where there's a will there's a way! Or is it "where there's a public toilet there's a neocon?" I can't remember...]]> Fri, 19 Sep 2008 22:42:23 -0400
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Six days later (Six Freaking Days!) he says that we are in a banking crisis. What a complete and utter moron.

I am hereby proposing a "Mark Perry Contra Fund". The fund will take whatever dumbass statement Perry has made in the past week and bet on the opposite coming true.

For example, when he called a bottom in the housing market a couple months ago, you could have made a killing betting against him. If you bet against the dollar after his insane comments that the dollar was going to roar back you would have made a killing. The list goes on.

Of course, his bum chum buddies have banned short selling so it'll be tough to execute on this strategy, but where there's a will there's a way! Or is it "where there's a public toilet there's a neocon?" I can't remember...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96169-since-when-is-getting-a-loan-being-bailed-out?source=feed#comment-258254 258254 Thu, 18 Sep 2008 14:32:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/96002-trying-to-find-a-buyer-for-wamu?source=feed#comment-257662 257662 Thu, 18 Sep 2008 02:08:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/96002-trying-to-find-a-buyer-for-wamu?source=feed#comment-257660 257660 Thu, 18 Sep 2008 02:06:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95425-demand-for-gas-you-can-t-have-it-both-ways?source=feed#comment-255230 255230 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 16:29:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95232-we-re-still-a-long-way-from-a-real-banking-crisis?source=feed#comment-255167 255167 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 15:18:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95232-we-re-still-a-long-way-from-a-real-banking-crisis?source=feed#comment-253069 253069
ml-implode.com/

I doubt that this guy has even a basic working knowledge of capital markets. Your tax dollars at work, folks!

]]> Fri, 12 Sep 2008 17:02:36 -0400
ml-implode.com/

I doubt that this guy has even a basic working knowledge of capital markets. Your tax dollars at work, folks!

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93822-economic-facts-u-s-economy-is-doing-quite-well?source=feed#comment-246497 246497 ]]> Fri, 05 Sep 2008 15:29:53 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93309-real-disposable-income-up-by-11-4-in-q2?source=feed#comment-245954 245954 Fri, 05 Sep 2008 02:13:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93434-investing-in-biotech-the-3-phases-of-clinical-trials?source=feed#comment-243592 243592 Mon, 01 Sep 2008 23:50:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93428-playing-the-market-as-delinquencies-continue-to-rise?source=feed#comment-243339 243339 Mon, 01 Sep 2008 14:57:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92844-gold-coin-rationing-where-there-s-smoke-there-s-fire?source=feed#comment-240602 240602 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 01:27:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92299-annual-m2-growth-is-nothing-like-the-1970s?source=feed#comment-239797 239797
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Check out what academic publishers think about this practice (see the section entitled "Ethics" towards the bottom of the page):

www.bioline.org.br/req...]]> Wed, 27 Aug 2008 02:09:50 -0400
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Check out what academic publishers think about this practice (see the section entitled "Ethics" towards the bottom of the page):

www.bioline.org.br/req...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92509-prominent-economists-make-up-data-that-doesn-t-exist?source=feed#comment-238778 238778 Mon, 25 Aug 2008 16:26:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92509-prominent-economists-make-up-data-that-doesn-t-exist?source=feed#comment-238773 238773
This is not at all accurate. The Fed has never said this. They do collect the data that underlies M3 (they even publish it; this is there those re-constituted M3 sites get their data), they just don't calculate M3 anymore since it doesn't seem to tell them anything useful. They still need to collect the underlying data for other purposes.

I doubt that the author has even a basic understanding of how the federal reserve system works:
-He mis-states the Fed's stance on M3
-He describes the current Fed stance as "hawkish", which would imply a funds rate higher than inflation, which it is not.
-He does not understand that the data to calculate M3 is available to anyone who wants to examine it on the Federal Reserve site and accuses the people who take the time to dig up the data and calculate M3 as either liars or whack-jobs. They are whack jobs, but the M3 data is coming straight from the Fed, not from thin air.

Is is Mark Sunshine who is making things up by (a) attempting to pass himself off as knowledgeable on the subject of monetary policy, (b) mis-stating the Fed's monetary stance, (c) mis-representing the Fed's policies around data collection and dissemination, and (d) launching an ill-conceived straw-man attack on a nebulous, undefined group of "prominent economists".

]]> Mon, 25 Aug 2008 16:20:47 -0400
This is not at all accurate. The Fed has never said this. They do collect the data that underlies M3 (they even publish it; this is there those re-constituted M3 sites get their data), they just don't calculate M3 anymore since it doesn't seem to tell them anything useful. They still need to collect the underlying data for other purposes.

I doubt that the author has even a basic understanding of how the federal reserve system works:
-He mis-states the Fed's stance on M3
-He describes the current Fed stance as "hawkish", which would imply a funds rate higher than inflation, which it is not.
-He does not understand that the data to calculate M3 is available to anyone who wants to examine it on the Federal Reserve site and accuses the people who take the time to dig up the data and calculate M3 as either liars or whack-jobs. They are whack jobs, but the M3 data is coming straight from the Fed, not from thin air.

Is is Mark Sunshine who is making things up by (a) attempting to pass himself off as knowledgeable on the subject of monetary policy, (b) mis-stating the Fed's monetary stance, (c) mis-representing the Fed's policies around data collection and dissemination, and (d) launching an ill-conceived straw-man attack on a nebulous, undefined group of "prominent economists".

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92300-real-estate-bubble-is-only-in-4-states-ca-fl-nv-az?source=feed#comment-237983 237983 Sun, 24 Aug 2008 19:42:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92005-alnylam-and-rnai-the-truth-hurts?source=feed#comment-236108 236108 www.pharmaweek.com/Exc...

He must be more buffoon than tycoon!

In all seriousness, it takes a long time to get all the details of a new drug technology worked out. Monoclonal antibody technology was invented in the 1970s but drugs based on these technologies took another 20 to 30 years to come to market. Now, they are hugely important and profitable.

Alnylam has a long road ahead of it and admittedly it might fail, but it has an unbelievable scientific and business team behind it, is very well funded, and has collaborations from here to China. They have completed a Phase II study of their lead drug for respiratory syncytial virus infection of the lungs (ALN-RSV01: clinicaltrials.gov/ct2...) and have initiated a second one (see clinicaltrials.gov/ct2...).

To see the kind of hurdles that Alnylam must clear, you can read this article: www.rnainews.com/issue...

RNAi is a very exciting and promising technology. I own ALNY and hope very much that they are able to commercialize this incredibly promising technology. Humanity will be better off if Alnylam is successful.]]> Thu, 21 Aug 2008 23:17:35 -0400 www.pharmaweek.com/Exc...

He must be more buffoon than tycoon!

In all seriousness, it takes a long time to get all the details of a new drug technology worked out. Monoclonal antibody technology was invented in the 1970s but drugs based on these technologies took another 20 to 30 years to come to market. Now, they are hugely important and profitable.

Alnylam has a long road ahead of it and admittedly it might fail, but it has an unbelievable scientific and business team behind it, is very well funded, and has collaborations from here to China. They have completed a Phase II study of their lead drug for respiratory syncytial virus infection of the lungs (ALN-RSV01: clinicaltrials.gov/ct2...) and have initiated a second one (see clinicaltrials.gov/ct2...).

To see the kind of hurdles that Alnylam must clear, you can read this article: www.rnainews.com/issue...

RNAi is a very exciting and promising technology. I own ALNY and hope very much that they are able to commercialize this incredibly promising technology. Humanity will be better off if Alnylam is successful.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90317-who-is-really-printing-money?source=feed#comment-227915 227915 Mon, 11 Aug 2008 13:07:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90084-king-dollar-roars-back?source=feed#comment-227481 227481
bp3.blogger.com/_H2DeP...

Like most academics, he probably wants a job at the fed, so he is showing that he is a good little soldier with his posts. He waves his hand over data noise and makes hints about the future. In previous ages he would be reading chicken entrails, or tea leaves, or palms, or conjuring spirits to reveal the future, or...you get the point.]]> Mon, 11 Aug 2008 03:00:11 -0400
bp3.blogger.com/_H2DeP...

Like most academics, he probably wants a job at the fed, so he is showing that he is a good little soldier with his posts. He waves his hand over data noise and makes hints about the future. In previous ages he would be reading chicken entrails, or tea leaves, or palms, or conjuring spirits to reveal the future, or...you get the point.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89174-fomc-forking-over-more-currency?source=feed#comment-223709 223709 Wed, 06 Aug 2008 01:30:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/88164-get-smart-on-u-s-economic-policy?source=feed#comment-219537 219537
Ooo boy, a quiz, let's see.

1. Yes, the US government is a unitary body when it comes to financial affairs. Votes in Congress on how to deal with the financial crisis have been bipartisan.

2. Yes the government props up shares *in certain financials*. How else do you explain the existence of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets?

3. Yes financials systematically lied about their financial assets. Here's some evidence that the deception was coming from the top:

www.portfolio.com/news...

4. I would report to my chief that the US is run by a bunch of over-bred, silver-spoon-reared, spoiled, short-sighted, corrupt, selfish country-club boys who wouldn't know an honest statement or a day of hard work if it kicked them in the ass, and who despise small business and entepreneurialism. I would further report that it is lucky for Americans that the constitution continues to afford some measure of protection against these yaks, although even that is being gradually eroded. I would conclude that the the question about the inevitable cleansing is silly since, under the Keynesian system that the US operates under, the government is allegedly able to avert financial collapse in a credit-based economy by increasing spending and liquidity.

How'd I do?]]> Thu, 31 Jul 2008 14:34:08 -0400
Ooo boy, a quiz, let's see.

1. Yes, the US government is a unitary body when it comes to financial affairs. Votes in Congress on how to deal with the financial crisis have been bipartisan.

2. Yes the government props up shares *in certain financials*. How else do you explain the existence of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets?

3. Yes financials systematically lied about their financial assets. Here's some evidence that the deception was coming from the top:

www.portfolio.com/news...

4. I would report to my chief that the US is run by a bunch of over-bred, silver-spoon-reared, spoiled, short-sighted, corrupt, selfish country-club boys who wouldn't know an honest statement or a day of hard work if it kicked them in the ass, and who despise small business and entepreneurialism. I would further report that it is lucky for Americans that the constitution continues to afford some measure of protection against these yaks, although even that is being gradually eroded. I would conclude that the the question about the inevitable cleansing is silly since, under the Keynesian system that the US operates under, the government is allegedly able to avert financial collapse in a credit-based economy by increasing spending and liquidity.

How'd I do?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88091-swf-stands-for-stocks-weaken-faster?source=feed#comment-218928 218928 Wed, 30 Jul 2008 22:27:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87186-second-quarter-homeownership-rate-has-largest-increase-in-four-years?source=feed#comment-215782 215782
Looking at your chart and using your own methodology, you would have called a housing market bottom in Q1 '05 and Q4 '05 and a top in Q2 '01 and Q4 '02. Great analysis. The fact that you think a 0.3% move on a single data point is meaningful and actionable demonstrates yet again your monumental stupidity. Census data typically has an error of +/-0.5%, so you are looking at noise, doofus. Go blow Larry.
]]> Sun, 27 Jul 2008 14:01:21 -0400
Looking at your chart and using your own methodology, you would have called a housing market bottom in Q1 '05 and Q4 '05 and a top in Q2 '01 and Q4 '02. Great analysis. The fact that you think a 0.3% move on a single data point is meaningful and actionable demonstrates yet again your monumental stupidity. Census data typically has an error of +/-0.5%, so you are looking at noise, doofus. Go blow Larry.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86768-bill-gross-the-housing-gse-bill-is-best-way-out-of-credit-crisis?source=feed#comment-213259 213259 Thu, 24 Jul 2008 10:29:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/86712-this-can-t-be-helping-real-estate?source=feed#comment-213224 213224 Thu, 24 Jul 2008 10:03:24 -0400