soonerxii

Recreational Vehicle Sector: Seriously Overbought

that's funny and true




On Aug 03 10:06 PM David White wrote:

> HOG was one of five companies listed in a recent Motley Fool article
> about companies in which you need to protect your gains. This bodes
> well for a downturn.

3x ETFs Are Wealth Destroyers

everyone is starting to get wise of these 2x and 3x vehicles. I'm not so sure that the 1x vehilcles are that much better. I'm staying away from all of them.

Beaten Down Natural Gas Likely to Stay Down, Making Producers a Short

It appears that I was mistakenly under the impression that LNG was not cost effective to ship across the ocean at these prices.

Also, I'm worried that we just had one of the coldest national winters in a while, and nat gas fell all winter long. Nat gas should never dip below 5 in a cold winter.

We hit 2.80/mcf a couple of years ago, and Chesapeake shut off their valves and help get the price back up immediately. This time, Chesapeake is struggling to keep their doors open right now, so they aren't shutting off anything, but outside landmen.

Green initiatives will take several years to have any real effect on prices in my opinion.

Nat Gas will rule the roost one day, but I'm afraid that the author might just be right for the time being.

I will say this though, as a guy in the landman business, I still have a job in the Fayettville, but other than that, most of the plays are so shut down, it's not even funny.

I'm not getting short, but I'm covering my longs.

Still Substantial Risk in Credit Card Investments

nice piece. good job changing the creepy sig pic also.

Chesapeake Energy: Peaking for Now?

CHK and many other energy companies are good short term shorts imo.

Yes, you SWNs and your XTOs and CHKs will do very well under an Obama (Rom Emanuelle) admin. But I think the author is right to consider that the drivers of these stocks are still many quarters out.

It's simple people...we have had a nationally cold winter starting in October. Some of the highest populated areas have been cold most of the winter... and yet the wellhead price of nat gas at the henry hub is like 2 bucks?!? Do you think that price is going to go up in March when everyone is turning off their heaters?

Simon Property Group: Time to Go Short

There are probably a few other names besides SPG that will go down with this group. Though, I'm avoiding the ETF

Amazon: Guidance Miracle Is Not in the Cards

Back when AMZN was 35 bucks a share in 07 I shorted it based on similar reasoning, and that sob went triple digit on me. I'll be a put buyer in amazon eventually, but not right now.

3 Reasons This Rally Has No Legs

What rally?

Shorting U.S. Government Risk

That's a pretty good post. It is really kind of ignorant to blame short sellers for any of this mess. Why does no one blame the pumpers who thought that stocks should only go up? Or even the real culprit....Alan Greenspan.

Greenspan's Bubbles is a great book for understanding how we got to where we are today.


On Nov 26 10:16 AM random2348 wrote:

> apppro,
>
> If confidence returns to the stock market and the credit markets,
> then Treasuries are likely to sell off. To some degree, shorting
> Treasuries is a bet that financial markets will normalize and risk
> aversion will decline. But it is also bet that stands to gain if
> the U.S. government issues such a massive amount of debt in order
> to finance the bailouts that the new supply of Treasuries overwhelms
> the flight-to-safety demand.

Is It Time to Short Bonds?

shorting America...lol. That's funny comrade

Commodities Still Have Downside - Barron's

Jim Rogers Vs. jegan???

I'll take the rich guy.

The Case for Shorting Long Dated U.S. Treasuries

I still trying to wrap my head around this trade, but I've got a core DXKSX position now. So, I would certainly read more articles on this subject.

The Case for Shorting Long Dated U.S. Treasuries

I hadn't heard of DXKSX before this article. I'm going to build a position up starting tomorrow.

The Case for Shorting Long Dated U.S. Treasuries

Bill Fleckenstein has predicted pretty much everything that is happening now. He was actually about a year early. Anyways, I recomend him to people who want to drop about 120 a year for a daily roundup.
This is an email he answered on his site about a week ago. He is ramping up his shorts on long term treasuries I believe, but his trades can come and go fast....I'm not trying to pimp Fleck here, but I am posting something from a paid site, so I need to reflect that, (but also, I will pimp Fleck, because has been fricking invaluable this past year).

"Bill,

It's probably a good thing in the very short term that the "flight to safety" has permitted the Treasury (and ultimately the Fed) to fund the bailing out of the world, because the rate of interest on those short-term Treasuries being bought is REALLY low (as low as one tenth of one percent yield). That reduces the interest-rate burden created by the selling of so much government debt into the markets.

However, this surge of bailout debt is another "weapon of mass destruction" that is going to fall on us somewhere down the road. There is absolutely no way that the bailout debt (like all other U.S. debt since WWII) will be payed down. To quote Dick Cheney, describing the political stupidity of the American electorate, "Reagan proved deficits don't matter."

Now, all this short-term bailout debt has to be rolled over each time it falls due. Once the credit panic is over and the "flight to safety" ebbs, the interest rate on Treasuries will snap upward as the debt is rolled over with fewer buyers bidding on it. As a result, the 10 year yield will rise at least to it's fifty-year average of 7% (not even counting possible conventional bombs going off like inflation from so much liquidity injection or the major devaluing of the dollar).

In other words, the panic has created a "bubble" specific to Treasuries as an asset, and when the bubble pops, the cost of the interest payments on the trillions of dollars in new debt will become a fiscal disaster. With some real bad luck, this can be unfolding just about the time the Boomers are depleting the Social Security trust fund reserves and all that off-the-books Social Security liability will start seriously devastating our already-deeply-underwa... annual fiscal budgets.

How high can interest rates go? Can you say 1979?
• Thanks for that-- I agree-- foks who don't understand how rates can rise given the economy should read this twice. "

The Case for Shorting Long Dated U.S. Treasuries

A lot of people have been calling for this trade. I guess you can short the TLT or buy RRPIX also. When people say long term Treasuries, do they mean 10, 20, or 30? Or all 3?