soonerxii's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/103213/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/153056-recreational-vehicle-sector-seriously-overbought?source=feed#comment-614574 614574



On Aug 03 10:06 PM David White wrote:

> HOG was one of five companies listed in a recent Motley Fool article
> about companies in which you need to protect your gains. This bodes
> well for a downturn.]]> Tue, 04 Aug 2009 10:50:10 -0400



On Aug 03 10:06 PM David White wrote:

> HOG was one of five companies listed in a recent Motley Fool article
> about companies in which you need to protect your gains. This bodes
> well for a downturn.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131732-3x-etfs-are-wealth-destroyers?source=feed#comment-469425 469425 Mon, 20 Apr 2009 08:33:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129144-beaten-down-natural-gas-likely-to-stay-down-making-producers-a-short?source=feed#comment-450617 450617
Also, I'm worried that we just had one of the coldest national winters in a while, and nat gas fell all winter long. Nat gas should never dip below 5 in a cold winter.

We hit 2.80/mcf a couple of years ago, and Chesapeake shut off their valves and help get the price back up immediately. This time, Chesapeake is struggling to keep their doors open right now, so they aren't shutting off anything, but outside landmen.

Green initiatives will take several years to have any real effect on prices in my opinion.

Nat Gas will rule the roost one day, but I'm afraid that the author might just be right for the time being.

I will say this though, as a guy in the landman business, I still have a job in the Fayettville, but other than that, most of the plays are so shut down, it's not even funny.

I'm not getting short, but I'm covering my longs.]]> Fri, 03 Apr 2009 09:22:45 -0400
Also, I'm worried that we just had one of the coldest national winters in a while, and nat gas fell all winter long. Nat gas should never dip below 5 in a cold winter.

We hit 2.80/mcf a couple of years ago, and Chesapeake shut off their valves and help get the price back up immediately. This time, Chesapeake is struggling to keep their doors open right now, so they aren't shutting off anything, but outside landmen.

Green initiatives will take several years to have any real effect on prices in my opinion.

Nat Gas will rule the roost one day, but I'm afraid that the author might just be right for the time being.

I will say this though, as a guy in the landman business, I still have a job in the Fayettville, but other than that, most of the plays are so shut down, it's not even funny.

I'm not getting short, but I'm covering my longs.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125259-still-substantial-risk-in-credit-card-investments?source=feed#comment-421669 421669 Wed, 11 Mar 2009 09:36:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/119571-chesapeake-energy-peaking-for-now?source=feed#comment-383746 383746
Yes, you SWNs and your XTOs and CHKs will do very well under an Obama (Rom Emanuelle) admin. But I think the author is right to consider that the drivers of these stocks are still many quarters out.

It's simple people...we have had a nationally cold winter starting in October. Some of the highest populated areas have been cold most of the winter... and yet the wellhead price of nat gas at the henry hub is like 2 bucks?!? Do you think that price is going to go up in March when everyone is turning off their heaters?]]> Wed, 11 Feb 2009 09:36:10 -0500
Yes, you SWNs and your XTOs and CHKs will do very well under an Obama (Rom Emanuelle) admin. But I think the author is right to consider that the drivers of these stocks are still many quarters out.

It's simple people...we have had a nationally cold winter starting in October. Some of the highest populated areas have been cold most of the winter... and yet the wellhead price of nat gas at the henry hub is like 2 bucks?!? Do you think that price is going to go up in March when everyone is turning off their heaters?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117925-simon-property-group-time-to-go-short?source=feed#comment-374775 374775 Tue, 03 Feb 2009 15:54:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117259-amazon-guidance-miracle-is-not-in-the-cards?source=feed#comment-370980 370980 Fri, 30 Jan 2009 09:55:36 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108541-3-reasons-this-rally-has-no-legs?source=feed#comment-318164 318164 Mon, 01 Dec 2008 11:20:09 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108124-shorting-u-s-government-risk?source=feed#comment-315485 315485
Greenspan's Bubbles is a great book for understanding how we got to where we are today.


On Nov 26 10:16 AM random2348 wrote:

> apppro,
>
> If confidence returns to the stock market and the credit markets,
> then Treasuries are likely to sell off. To some degree, shorting
> Treasuries is a bet that financial markets will normalize and risk
> aversion will decline. But it is also bet that stands to gain if
> the U.S. government issues such a massive amount of debt in order
> to finance the bailouts that the new supply of Treasuries overwhelms
> the flight-to-safety demand.]]> Wed, 26 Nov 2008 10:36:51 -0500
Greenspan's Bubbles is a great book for understanding how we got to where we are today.


On Nov 26 10:16 AM random2348 wrote:

> apppro,
>
> If confidence returns to the stock market and the credit markets,
> then Treasuries are likely to sell off. To some degree, shorting
> Treasuries is a bet that financial markets will normalize and risk
> aversion will decline. But it is also bet that stands to gain if
> the U.S. government issues such a massive amount of debt in order
> to finance the bailouts that the new supply of Treasuries overwhelms
> the flight-to-safety demand.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107554-is-it-time-to-short-bonds?source=feed#comment-314059 314059 Mon, 24 Nov 2008 17:40:10 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/104981-commodities-still-have-downside-barron-s?source=feed#comment-302425 302425
I'll take the rich guy.]]> Mon, 10 Nov 2008 18:57:49 -0500
I'll take the rich guy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101103-the-case-for-shorting-long-dated-u-s-treasuries?source=feed#comment-301896 301896 Mon, 10 Nov 2008 10:49:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/101103-the-case-for-shorting-long-dated-u-s-treasuries?source=feed#comment-289130 289130 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 17:28:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/101103-the-case-for-shorting-long-dated-u-s-treasuries?source=feed#comment-289060 289060 This is an email he answered on his site about a week ago. He is ramping up his shorts on long term treasuries I believe, but his trades can come and go fast....I'm not trying to pimp Fleck here, but I am posting something from a paid site, so I need to reflect that, (but also, I will pimp Fleck, because has been fricking invaluable this past year).

"Bill,

It's probably a good thing in the very short term that the "flight to safety" has permitted the Treasury (and ultimately the Fed) to fund the bailing out of the world, because the rate of interest on those short-term Treasuries being bought is REALLY low (as low as one tenth of one percent yield). That reduces the interest-rate burden created by the selling of so much government debt into the markets.

However, this surge of bailout debt is another "weapon of mass destruction" that is going to fall on us somewhere down the road. There is absolutely no way that the bailout debt (like all other U.S. debt since WWII) will be payed down. To quote Dick Cheney, describing the political stupidity of the American electorate, "Reagan proved deficits don't matter."

Now, all this short-term bailout debt has to be rolled over each time it falls due. Once the credit panic is over and the "flight to safety" ebbs, the interest rate on Treasuries will snap upward as the debt is rolled over with fewer buyers bidding on it. As a result, the 10 year yield will rise at least to it's fifty-year average of 7% (not even counting possible conventional bombs going off like inflation from so much liquidity injection or the major devaluing of the dollar).

In other words, the panic has created a "bubble" specific to Treasuries as an asset, and when the bubble pops, the cost of the interest payments on the trillions of dollars in new debt will become a fiscal disaster. With some real bad luck, this can be unfolding just about the time the Boomers are depleting the Social Security trust fund reserves and all that off-the-books Social Security liability will start seriously devastating our already-deeply-underwa... annual fiscal budgets.

How high can interest rates go? Can you say 1979?
• Thanks for that-- I agree-- foks who don't understand how rates can rise given the economy should read this twice. "
]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 16:12:07 -0400 This is an email he answered on his site about a week ago. He is ramping up his shorts on long term treasuries I believe, but his trades can come and go fast....I'm not trying to pimp Fleck here, but I am posting something from a paid site, so I need to reflect that, (but also, I will pimp Fleck, because has been fricking invaluable this past year).

"Bill,

It's probably a good thing in the very short term that the "flight to safety" has permitted the Treasury (and ultimately the Fed) to fund the bailing out of the world, because the rate of interest on those short-term Treasuries being bought is REALLY low (as low as one tenth of one percent yield). That reduces the interest-rate burden created by the selling of so much government debt into the markets.

However, this surge of bailout debt is another "weapon of mass destruction" that is going to fall on us somewhere down the road. There is absolutely no way that the bailout debt (like all other U.S. debt since WWII) will be payed down. To quote Dick Cheney, describing the political stupidity of the American electorate, "Reagan proved deficits don't matter."

Now, all this short-term bailout debt has to be rolled over each time it falls due. Once the credit panic is over and the "flight to safety" ebbs, the interest rate on Treasuries will snap upward as the debt is rolled over with fewer buyers bidding on it. As a result, the 10 year yield will rise at least to it's fifty-year average of 7% (not even counting possible conventional bombs going off like inflation from so much liquidity injection or the major devaluing of the dollar).

In other words, the panic has created a "bubble" specific to Treasuries as an asset, and when the bubble pops, the cost of the interest payments on the trillions of dollars in new debt will become a fiscal disaster. With some real bad luck, this can be unfolding just about the time the Boomers are depleting the Social Security trust fund reserves and all that off-the-books Social Security liability will start seriously devastating our already-deeply-underwa... annual fiscal budgets.

How high can interest rates go? Can you say 1979?
• Thanks for that-- I agree-- foks who don't understand how rates can rise given the economy should read this twice. "
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101103-the-case-for-shorting-long-dated-u-s-treasuries?source=feed#comment-287687 287687 Wed, 22 Oct 2008 09:25:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97061-retail-sector-doomed-weak-holiday-sales-will-destroy-under-armour?source=feed#comment-263872 263872 Wed, 24 Sep 2008 14:31:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/96968-hedge-funds-finding-new-ways-to-short?source=feed#comment-263864 263864 Wed, 24 Sep 2008 14:26:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/96363-are-short-sellers-to-blame-for-the-financial-crisis?source=feed#comment-259618 259618
and 2. for blaming all of this on short selling. Even naked shorting. The uptick rule has nothing to do with any of this either. Paulson and Cox are sooooo bad for our country. "The only difference between us an the Soviets, is that they don't pretend to be capitalists".]]> Fri, 19 Sep 2008 19:08:44 -0400
and 2. for blaming all of this on short selling. Even naked shorting. The uptick rule has nothing to do with any of this either. Paulson and Cox are sooooo bad for our country. "The only difference between us an the Soviets, is that they don't pretend to be capitalists".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96285-sec-bans-shorting-financials?source=feed#comment-258869 258869 Fri, 19 Sep 2008 09:13:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94784-massive-opportunity-to-short-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-250497 250497 Wed, 10 Sep 2008 11:35:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93370-brunswick-corporation-is-the-bad-news-over?source=feed#comment-243875 243875 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:46:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90160-capital-one-a-different-short-case?source=feed#comment-228549 228549
Also, people would be better served to quit using the term sub-prime, as if that is the only category of loans that are going bad or are going to go bad. Alt-A is Waaaaaaaaaaay bigger than subprime, and it is headed for disaster as well.
COF and RIMM are the shorts of the century. And AMZN. Any week now it's going to pop, imo.]]> Tue, 12 Aug 2008 09:47:15 -0400
Also, people would be better served to quit using the term sub-prime, as if that is the only category of loans that are going bad or are going to go bad. Alt-A is Waaaaaaaaaaay bigger than subprime, and it is headed for disaster as well.
COF and RIMM are the shorts of the century. And AMZN. Any week now it's going to pop, imo.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83115-marvel-s-in-for-a-hulk-of-a-lawsuit-barron-s?source=feed#comment-195141 195141 Sun, 29 Jun 2008 10:35:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/45280-subprime-mess-credit-excess-this-aint-my-american-dream?source=feed#comment-94285 94285 Wed, 22 Aug 2007 09:41:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/45141-vizio-leads-lcd-sales-syntax-brillian-remains-in-seventh-place?source=feed#comment-94256 94256 I short stocks. I go long. Whatever. The market is full of snakes, but not necessarily because they are shorts.]]> Tue, 21 Aug 2007 17:40:55 -0400 I short stocks. I go long. Whatever. The market is full of snakes, but not necessarily because they are shorts.]]>