Rite Aid: The Retail Stock Under $5 You Should Buy [View article]
Folks ,
I am reading through all recent comments and I am just stating I remain still bullish over that stock. Of course , maybe should we be aware of this'' dump into Q4 accounting ajustment'' that are maybe overflating net results , it is accounting ghibberish , I am an head accountant for a raw metal/scrap manufacturer of steel alloy , I play, cook with my numbers on a periodical basis. I am a very small co Under $ 15M business turnover , but there are zallotte of playing the game of numbers of all bigger & publicaly based concerns. Also I dont really care if they use LIFO, FIFO , phoqueFO , coutmoyen per unit or any other means , at least they correct depreciancy issues and Thats what it really count.
I am still Bullish for those reasons:
a) despite an awful balance sheet , they have maintained their competitive edge , Sales are maintain/sustain and they had increase their gross margin over 30% last QT. If RAD want to get out of the HOLE , it have to maintain GM over 30% . If you look onto last 10-12 last quarters ( before october 2012 ) , RAD was inferior at 23-27 % and subsequently loosing money.So they are on the mend.
b) they got that new re-Financing , the high finance ( wall street ) have confidence in the RAD turnaround. It will stabilise their finances & maybe with coming positive quarters ( QT ) a recapitalisation that would push the stock into the $ 3.75-$ 5 range in the Fall/13 winter 2014.
c) I will be in my THIRD speculation with this one , I intend to take October $ 2.50 Stk @ $.55 to .70/call : With the money maid on the 2 last specs , I am betting ( as Cramer would say ) on the house money.
This price of Gold at $ 1388.80 us / oz should not stay forever that low price :
A) no big miners will be encourage to produce/ develop new mines & onces at such a low return. If gld is not coming back at $ 1550+ , it will be a diminution of supplies. Even existing pruducing mines can reduce/close production to sustain higher prices.
B) Considering where in the world you are gonna develop a new mine at $ 1 G + ( poor countries or developped ) , who are gonna dispose of large amount of cash for a such risky & poorly profitable investment. Also you have to explore & finds those reserves , hundreds of millions necessary just for finding.
C) Even today with interest rate on loan at their lowest % seen last 30 years , it is foreseeable to have an increase of interest rate. So when financiers are valuating feasabilité of gold producing project , they have to increase the rate of return on investments & NPV
D ) Bernanke, Bk of Japan, China , new UK marc Carney on the printing press printing dollars like AL Capone & any crisis looming ( if Monténégro is defaulting on his sovereign loan , ha,ha,ha !!??!! ) , all elements to pressure up the price of gold.
Today , somebody with a $ million dollars to loan & getting a lousy 3 1/2 % return , such lousy & risky investment. To dump it in the equity market ....... ho ho ..... danger , danger ,,,,, it can swindle down when interest rate to go up.
Also , collateral damage the risk of deflating real estate ( that are grossely overflated valued ( here in Canada & in the rest of Europe, middle east & mostly the rest of world .... !! ).
I am not bearrish , but realist , this price of GOLD have to go up.
Otherwise , supply will reajust & have this thing set right.
And I am sure , Interest rate , equity , real estate too gonna have to get their ................. Pendules a l' heure ...... !!
These 3 Stocks Have A History Of Q1 Gains [View article]
to TC ,
I just discovering PRXL through my IBD subscription. What it is attracting me into that stock , they have a Marketvalue to Sales ratio of only 1.39 x which is the lowest compared to peers like ( CRL,UTHR,CBST,JAZZ ). Also quarter to quarter , they are experimenting increases in Sales , I will not be surprised to see reachinne the $ 2.0 G mark. At that point , the share should climb to $ 50 ish by yearend
Ball Corporation: A True Sustainable Enterprise [View article]
I am re-reading myself , I forgot to mention I took 5 calls exp 0813 stk $ 43.00 & 4 calls, same exp, stk $ 44.00 @ aver cost of $ 2.40 & $ 1.82 . It just to mention to readers how I can make 50% et plus on every '' cuvette '' trades.
It is difficult ( non senses ) to make high % return on simply buying stock. I use , A LOT , option calls ( & sometime puts )
Sorry the stock went up today , I would have add up more calls on my positions.
When the stock , will reach +/- $ 46.25-.75 , I will seell my stk $ 44.00 in the sense of recuperate most ( if not all ) my cost of both positions.( in consideration of payback method )
( This measure to do just in case something very bad will happen after that traddinne day , my possible loss is reduced to to a low hundreds balance ) so the loss will simply dissappear ( pas sur de ce mot ) ... I sometime loose english grammar !!?? ) if ever a really small loss..
Then when the stock to climb to $ 47.80 to $ 48+ , to sell my Stk $ 43.00. In average , it make me around 70% north of my cost.
Then , I look for my next cuvette and repeat the same tradinne pattern over & over & over.
Ball Corporation: A True Sustainable Enterprise [View article]
Bonsoir Dr J. St-Pierre ,
For the use of this site , I'll answer in english.
Nice article about your theory of execution; also positive comments on Ball industries corp. To have a rough look on the company , it look to be compétitive and have an uptrend long term direction of the stock. I always want to trade on this one , but the danger is when ongoing upward graphic , you never when a dip gonna whack you down. But this week , earning miss a significant drop & then a '' point de résistance '' vers le bas ..... then to wait to see a leg up . Even today it getting up ( maybe temporary to see up/down in a week or two ) then a consistent trend upward. I will not be surprised to see BLL at +/- 47-48 as it was 2 weeks ago. This trade pattern is what I call ( une cuvette ) , whatzza Jim Cramer will say a cup & handle , a pettern that keep making 50% & more , with a small reasonable amount time ( 6 wks to 3 mths ) on each transaction. On this , what do you think ?
By the way , it seem that nobody commenting on a such nice quality compagnie like this one and I have legion of bloggers talking about RAD,F,INTC,MSFT and even obscure & small NEPT.
The Weekly Dow: 5 Cheapest Price-to-Book Stocks [View article]
I am eager to see at what price up the LME graphic will show me tomorrow Apr 25th ( for the trades of the 24th ) . To see a sudden rise in price of AA from $ 8.12 to $ 8.41 , this graph should an increase of at least $ 100 $ 1884 to $ 1985 or maybe more !!??!!
The way this graphic is set , it look that ALU will climb to $ 2050 or more by start mai 2013. At that point , I will not be surprised to see AA trading around $ 9.15 to $ 9.40.
The only issue is if this LME price can stabilise , so AA can sit on a price to do nice profits & so the sustanabilité of maintaining the price of share at $ 9.25 to $ 10
But , it is a while I am observing this graphic, I feel right to take a play as 25 Long calls AA strike $ 8 exp 0813. I took my position when the stock was languishing around $ 7.96 to $ 8.06 ( Apr 15 to Apr 23 )
Do you observing the LME graph/chart for 3 months ABR ?
Extend the graphic from Jan 2 2012 to today , it look that this Cup & Handle / ( Cuvette ) is going to turn up. When the price to be in the $ 1945 or more ? . It look to be imminent ( 1 week to 1 month to the max )
Also to thank you for your excellent article.
Disclosure : I have calls stk $ 8.00 , expiration 0713
Just yesterday , Groupe Jean Coutu inc. solld 40 % of their holding in RAD ( 72.5 Mshs @ $ 2.20 ) in a one shot transaction. Who' s hedge fund or outside interest is purchasing this big chunk of Shares.
I dont think PJC want to takeover this whole company. It will weaken the whole conglomerate ( PJC with RAD ) as one company. If it was PJC , this would had happened years ago. Now PJC want to unload those shares from their books & to erase off the mistakes of purchasing Brooks & eckerd ( made by Francois Jean )
PJC is the past. PJC transfert their problem to RAD. RAD get mostly destroyed by this move but consolidate & operate better & survived throught.
Now , a weaken RAD is maybe attractive to any competitor & vertical integrator. I will not be surprised to see the same interest buying PJC shares to buy on the low shares from the market.
And then make an official price takeover when they are in position ( like 34 % of the o/s shares ) to lauch it. At that moment , I am sure PJC will deliverer their remaining interest to them.
For that consideration , price will sustain around $ 2.30 to $ 3
A possible takeover bid by end summer to fall / 2013 @ $ 4.25-50 will end Rite-Aid saga.
This purchase of PJC shares on a one shot deal look to me that an outside interest is looking to make a takeover bid.
Rite Aid Is Looking Solid In Battle With Stronger Rivals [View article]
I look throught your Jones Cola ,
Very too small and always loosing money year per year Even , I dont see the quarterly results , so I can observe somme kind of improvment tant au sujet of Sales that to operating results
This little thing shoud be privatized.
Sorry for Jones Cola , too smallish to represent an interest !!
Swallowing The Bitter Rite-Aid Pill [View article]
If ever debt is strangling the company , they can go Chap 11 bankrupcy code & reorganise with court approval
I dont wish them to go there, it will be toobad for actual shareholders
But to consider cutting RAD in several parts to pay off some of the debt holders , it look unlikely for me. If they managed to to carry over this restructuring of product/locations/logi... into actual profitabilité ..... And keeping the company together .... they should finish it in one SOLID part only.
I already discussed previously that this company want to show SEQUENTIAL quarterly profit to buy time ( Maybe to restructure the capital ) or to get bought out correctly.
Swallowing The Bitter Rite-Aid Pill [View article]
Now If RAD can maintain Sales at decent +/- 6.2 to 6.5 B per Quarter & have over 29%+ gross margin , the step to RAD out of the hole and joining their peers in the legit club ( WAG,CVS,WMT ) is to restructure the balance sheet.
They proved that they can survive in such awful situation. Capital will be restructure.
I can see the stock move a little higher. But just waiting to see the detail of capital restructuring and how much dilution on actual shareholding.
Unless the plaan is to wait for a richer suitor , so no need to restructure.
Ford: 5 Reasons Why This Stock Is A Buy [View article]
I am 100% behind author's comments
But to put your in INTC instead of F ???!! . I dont know what peoples eat,drink or sniffing ??
From whaat I see , F will worth around $ 30+ in spring 2015 ( or even before ) , but I am not sure will INTC be worth the same or less by that time ??!!
I bought those calls 0713 stk 1.50 in beg feb @ average $ 0.36/ea and $ 0.125 0713 stk 2.00 , now today I sold 1/2 my position , recuperate 98 % my cost.
I am sure peoples gonna swallow up this new info and push the stock higher. I will finish $ 1 to $ 3 on this trade.
Rite Aid: The Retail Stock Under $5 You Should Buy [View article]
I am reading through all recent comments and I am just stating I remain still bullish over that stock.
Of course , maybe should we be aware of this'' dump into Q4 accounting ajustment'' that are maybe overflating net results , it is accounting ghibberish , I am an head accountant for a raw metal/scrap manufacturer of steel alloy , I play, cook with my numbers on a periodical basis. I am a very small co Under $ 15M business turnover , but there are zallotte of playing the game of numbers of all bigger & publicaly based concerns. Also I dont really care if they use LIFO, FIFO , phoqueFO , coutmoyen per unit or any other means , at least they correct depreciancy issues and Thats what it really count.
I am still Bullish for those reasons:
a) despite an awful balance sheet , they have maintained their competitive edge , Sales are maintain/sustain and they had increase their gross margin over 30% last QT. If RAD want to get out of the HOLE , it have to maintain GM over 30% . If you look onto last 10-12 last quarters ( before october 2012 ) , RAD was inferior at 23-27 % and subsequently loosing money.So they are on the mend.
b) they got that new re-Financing , the high finance ( wall street ) have confidence in the RAD turnaround. It will stabilise their finances & maybe with coming positive quarters ( QT ) a recapitalisation that would push the stock into the $ 3.75-$ 5 range in the Fall/13 winter 2014.
c) I will be in my THIRD speculation with this one , I intend to take October $ 2.50 Stk @ $.55 to .70/call : With the money maid on the 2 last specs , I am betting ( as Cramer would say ) on the house money.
So , Long RAD long and go up !!
Pierre Bouillon
Montréal, Canada
What Is The Cost Of Mining Gold? [View article]
A) no big miners will be encourage to produce/ develop new mines & onces at such a low return. If gld is not coming back at $ 1550+ , it will be a diminution of supplies. Even existing pruducing mines can reduce/close production to sustain higher prices.
B) Considering where in the world you are gonna develop a new mine at $ 1 G + ( poor countries or developped ) , who are gonna dispose of large amount of cash for a such risky & poorly profitable investment. Also you have to explore & finds those reserves , hundreds of millions necessary just for finding.
C) Even today with interest rate on loan at their lowest % seen last 30 years , it is foreseeable to have an increase of interest rate. So when financiers are valuating feasabilité of gold producing project , they have to increase the rate of return on investments & NPV
D ) Bernanke, Bk of Japan, China , new UK marc Carney on the printing press printing dollars like AL Capone & any crisis looming ( if Monténégro is defaulting on his sovereign loan , ha,ha,ha !!??!! ) , all elements to pressure up the price of gold.
Today , somebody with a $ million dollars to loan & getting a lousy 3 1/2 % return , such lousy & risky investment. To dump it in the equity market ....... ho ho ..... danger , danger ,,,,, it can swindle down when interest rate to go up.
Also , collateral damage the risk of deflating real estate ( that are grossely overflated valued ( here in Canada & in the rest of Europe, middle east & mostly the rest of world .... !! ).
I am not bearrish , but realist , this price of GOLD have to go up.
Otherwise , supply will reajust & have this thing set right.
And I am sure , Interest rate , equity , real estate too gonna have to get their ................. Pendules a l' heure ...... !!
Pierre Bouillon
Montréal,Canada
These 3 Stocks Have A History Of Q1 Gains [View article]
I just discovering PRXL through my IBD subscription.
What it is attracting me into that stock , they have a Marketvalue to Sales ratio of only 1.39 x which is the lowest compared to peers like ( CRL,UTHR,CBST,JAZZ ).
Also quarter to quarter , they are experimenting increases in Sales , I will not be surprised to see reachinne the $ 2.0 G mark. At that point , the share should climb to $ 50 ish by yearend
TC , what do you think ?
Pierre Bouillon
Montréal, Canada
Ball Corporation: A True Sustainable Enterprise [View article]
It is difficult ( non senses ) to make high % return on simply buying stock. I use , A LOT , option calls ( & sometime puts )
Sorry the stock went up today , I would have add up more calls on my positions.
When the stock , will reach +/- $ 46.25-.75 , I will seell my stk $ 44.00 in the sense of recuperate most ( if not all ) my cost of both positions.( in consideration of payback method )
( This measure to do just in case something very bad will happen after that traddinne day , my possible loss is reduced to to a low hundreds balance ) so the loss will simply dissappear ( pas sur de ce mot ) ... I sometime loose english grammar !!?? ) if ever a really small loss..
Then when the stock to climb to $ 47.80 to $ 48+ , to sell my Stk $ 43.00. In average , it make me around 70% north of my cost.
Then , I look for my next cuvette and repeat the same tradinne pattern over & over & over.
Bonne soirée
Pierre Bouillon
Montréal,Canada
Ball Corporation: A True Sustainable Enterprise [View article]
Bonsoir Dr J. St-Pierre ,
For the use of this site , I'll answer in english.
Nice article about your theory of execution; also positive comments on Ball industries corp. To have a rough look on the company , it look to be compétitive and have an uptrend long term direction of the stock.
I always want to trade on this one , but the danger is when ongoing upward graphic , you never when a dip gonna whack you down.
But this week , earning miss a significant drop & then a '' point de résistance '' vers le bas ..... then to wait to see a leg up . Even today it getting up ( maybe temporary to see up/down in a week or two ) then a consistent trend upward. I will not be surprised to see
BLL at +/- 47-48 as it was 2 weeks ago.
This trade pattern is what I call ( une cuvette ) , whatzza Jim Cramer will say a cup & handle , a pettern that keep making 50% & more , with a small reasonable amount time ( 6 wks to 3 mths ) on each transaction.
On this , what do you think ?
By the way , it seem that nobody commenting on a such nice quality compagnie like this one and I have legion of bloggers talking about RAD,F,INTC,MSFT and even obscure & small NEPT.
Bonne soirée
Pierre Bouillon
Montréal,Canada
The Weekly Dow: 5 Cheapest Price-to-Book Stocks [View article]
I am eager to see at what price up the LME graphic will show me
tomorrow Apr 25th ( for the trades of the 24th ) . To see a sudden rise in price of AA from $ 8.12 to $ 8.41 , this graph should an increase of at least $ 100 $ 1884 to $ 1985 or maybe more !!??!!
The way this graphic is set , it look that ALU will climb to $ 2050 or more by start mai 2013. At that point , I will not be surprised to see AA trading around $ 9.15 to $ 9.40.
The only issue is if this LME price can stabilise , so AA can sit on a price to do nice profits & so the sustanabilité of maintaining the price of share at $ 9.25 to $ 10
But , it is a while I am observing this graphic, I feel right to take a play as 25 Long calls AA strike $ 8 exp 0813. I took my position when the stock was languishing around $ 7.96 to $ 8.06 ( Apr 15 to Apr 23 )
Nice article and argumentation Mr Fu
Pierre Bouillon
Montreal,Canada
3 High-Risk, High-Reward Stocks [View article]
Mr Fu ,
Do you observing the LME graph/chart for 3 months ABR ?
Extend the graphic from Jan 2 2012 to today , it look that this Cup & Handle / ( Cuvette ) is going to turn up. When the price to be in the $ 1945 or more ? . It look to be imminent ( 1 week to 1 month to the max )
Also to thank you for your excellent article.
Disclosure : I have calls stk $ 8.00 , expiration 0713
Pierre Bouillon
Montréal,Canada
Can Rite Aid Sustain Its Momentum? [View article]
I have a big concern over the future of RAD
Just yesterday , Groupe Jean Coutu inc. solld 40 % of their holding in RAD ( 72.5 Mshs @ $ 2.20 ) in a one shot transaction. Who' s hedge fund or outside interest is purchasing this big chunk of Shares.
I dont think PJC want to takeover this whole company. It will weaken the whole conglomerate ( PJC with RAD ) as one company. If it was PJC , this would had happened years ago.
Now PJC want to unload those shares from their books & to erase off the mistakes of purchasing Brooks & eckerd ( made by Francois Jean )
PJC is the past. PJC transfert their problem to RAD. RAD get mostly destroyed by this move but consolidate & operate better & survived throught.
Now , a weaken RAD is maybe attractive to any competitor & vertical integrator. I will not be surprised to see the same interest buying PJC shares to buy on the low shares from the market.
And then make an official price takeover when they are in position ( like 34 % of the o/s shares ) to lauch it. At that moment , I am sure
PJC will deliverer their remaining interest to them.
For that consideration , price will sustain around $ 2.30 to $ 3
A possible takeover bid by end summer to fall / 2013 @ $ 4.25-50 will end Rite-Aid saga.
This purchase of PJC shares on a one shot deal look to me that an outside interest is looking to make a takeover bid.
Maybe I am wrong, what you folks think ??!!
Pierre Bouillon
Montreal,Canada
Rite Aid: The Retail Stock Under $5 You Should Buy [View article]
RAD is a bankrupt style company , you could not have the same set of evaluation compared to companies with sound balance sheet.
You will see comparable évaluation when RAD will address the balance sheet problem.
Before that , it is normal to have that stock tradinne at fraction of its peers
Imagine , 2 weeks ago , I was the only bull in this Bear play and now I have to calm down overexitation !!
But I agree , RAD have ways to go close to $ 3
Pierre Bouillon
Montréal,Canada
Rite Aid Is Looking Solid In Battle With Stronger Rivals [View article]
Very too small and always loosing money year per year
Even , I dont see the quarterly results , so I can observe somme kind of improvment tant au sujet of Sales that to operating results
This little thing shoud be privatized.
Sorry for Jones Cola , too smallish to represent an interest !!
Pierre Bouillon
Montreal,Canada
Rite Aid Is Looking Solid In Battle With Stronger Rivals [View article]
Now that is funny :
The very conservative Hulbert Interactive is stating RAD as Strong Buy and even Standard & Poors is buy from Hold.
Nobody ( from big rating/research agencies ) were caring a week ago
and now , they decided they found the new '' Coqueluche ''
Now this turnaround story will interest mainstreet . it will involve soon very interesting development in a foresee future
Pierre Bouillon
Montreal,Canada
Swallowing The Bitter Rite-Aid Pill [View article]
I dont wish them to go there, it will be toobad for actual shareholders
But to consider cutting RAD in several parts to pay off some of the debt holders , it look unlikely for me. If they managed to to carry over this restructuring of product/locations/logi... into actual profitabilité ..... And keeping the company together .... they should finish it in one SOLID part only.
I already discussed previously that this company want to show SEQUENTIAL quarterly profit to buy time ( Maybe to restructure the capital ) or to get bought out correctly.
Pierre Bouillon
Montreal,Canada
Swallowing The Bitter Rite-Aid Pill [View article]
Now If RAD can maintain Sales at decent +/- 6.2 to 6.5 B per Quarter & have over 29%+ gross margin , the step to RAD out of the hole and joining their peers in the legit club ( WAG,CVS,WMT )
is to restructure the balance sheet.
They proved that they can survive in such awful situation. Capital will be restructure.
I can see the stock move a little higher. But just waiting to see the detail of capital restructuring and how much dilution on actual
shareholding.
Unless the plaan is to wait for a richer suitor , so no need to restructure.
Pierre Bouillon
Montreal,Canada
Ford: 5 Reasons Why This Stock Is A Buy [View article]
I am 100% behind author's comments
But to put your in INTC instead of F ???!! . I dont know what peoples
eat,drink or sniffing ??
From whaat I see , F will worth around $ 30+ in spring 2015 ( or even before ) , but I am not sure will INTC be worth the same or less by that time ??!!
Pierre Bouillon
Montreal,Canada
Rite Aid Sales Continue To Erode [View article]
I bought those calls 0713 stk 1.50 in beg feb @ average $ 0.36/ea
and $ 0.125 0713 stk 2.00 , now today I sold 1/2 my position , recuperate 98 % my cost.
I am sure peoples gonna swallow up this new info and push the stock higher. I will finish $ 1 to $ 3 on this trade.
Cannot be down on this one
Pierre Bouillon
Montreal,Canada