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  • Bombardier CSeries gets reboot? [View news story]
    If you have $$$ to GAMBLE , buy some Long Puts !!
    Jul 15, 2015. 10:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bombardier CSeries gets reboot? [View news story]
    NO,NO,NO , It' s a bad idea !!

    They should sell ( or spinoff Aircraft ) & leave Railcar alone in the company.

    The only problem is to valuate what' s Worth Airplanes ?

    In my view , they would not have very much for it , Cross finger that
    BA or Airbus to pay handsomely to save that company ( BBD )
    Jul 15, 2015. 10:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bombardier CSeries gets reboot? [View news story]
    They are right to B negative about BBD

    BBD is in competition with Boeing , Airbus & else.

    BA is very much more powerful , financially than BBD.

    Compare : ( BA vs BBD ) for 2014 & CAD vs USD respectively (dec 31/14)

    Sales ................... $ 20.1 ....... ...... $ 90.76 Billions
    % Gross margin..... 12.81% ..... 15.43%
    Operating profit 923 millions ..... 7.14 Billions
    Net income (1246 millions ) ..... 5.44 billions
    paid dividend 182 millions .... 2.12 billions
    Working Capital ( 316 millions )..... 11.07 billions
    Shareholders equity 55 millions ..... 8.79 Billions
    Long term debt 14.1Billion......s 33.69 Billions
    Cash flow 791 Millions ..... 7.96 Billions
    Capex 1,95 Billions ..... 2.24 Billions
    Price of
    common shares
    July 15/2015 $ 1.90 cad ...... $ 147.00 USD

    The only sour number on BA' s books are intangibles are Worth mostly the
    same as Shareholders equity. But , it produces consistent Cash flow, I dont
    have doubts on values of those assets in BA' s books. BBD carry over 5.0 B
    in intangibles ( BA 8.5 B ) compare to an insignificant S/H equity.

    Also BBD spent as ( mostly ) much in Capex 1.95B vs 2.24B for BA with
    only a company with one fifth of BA' s sales.

    BA have a good W/C , BBD have to adress debt market constantly to just
    keep afloat with High Cash outlay.

    Best thing to happen to BBD , will be that BA would swallow BBD whole
    assuming the debt & issuing little shares ( no dilution for BA )

    But BA will not buy BBD , just wait BBD to go bust to buy assets on the
    cheap if ever they are Worth it ??!!

    Nicéphore de Montréal
    Jul 15, 2015. 10:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bombardier sinks to 22-year lows on review of business jets [View news story]
    Make our bets :

    By october 2015 , the shares will slip in the $ .58 to $ 1.26 range.

    The only hope for Shareholders to value the shares at those prices
    is the Québec/Ontario & Federal governments to spend/invest in
    BAILLING OUT the company.

    Otherwise , it will be Chapter 11 or LACC ( C11 equivalent in Canada )
    by spring 2016.

    Bailing out will only prevent to orderly liquidate the operations to save
    Maximum jobs In Canada.

    But , for me , the company is already DEAD !!
    Jul 15, 2015. 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CRRC shoots down Bombardier rumor [View news story]
    The chinese are not stupids

    Just wait 1-2 years , the company will go bankrupt and they will cherry buy parts
    of this company for a song .
    Jul 15, 2015. 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insignificant Paris - Bombardier's Blip [View article]
    Reading into Vegas Brit also give me an other concern about Bombardier

    The company need to develop more their aircrafts , means between 1 to 3
    more Billions in R & D but the company is running out of Cash :

    It has négative cash flow , their balance sheet has a negative net Worth of between -1.5 to -4.0 Billions CAD ( depend on which intangibles assets
    ( 4,576 millions vs Shareholders equity of only $ 542 M ) and the C series
    would require to spend more on product development.

    Also their railcar division ( which account of +/- 45% of the net sales ) experimenting deleveries problem ( GTA of Toronto not happy about
    the orders ) , etc , etc

    For me , it look they gonna have a major Cash Squezze by fall/2015,
    The Canadian/Ontario & Québec Government gonna have to Bail it out
    like GM in 2008.

    Except GM had good values behind the name , it could been ressucitated
    from Chapter 11 & have some payback for the shares.

    In Case of Bailout of Bombardier , I only see Massive Layoffs & 5-10 Billions
    of Government money Burned ( in the future ).

    The only way to save this company is to sell out the aeronautique division
    to the Boeing,Airbus , MD of this world & to concentrate on Railcar division
    in association with Grouppe Alstom of France. Probably Alstom to be the Parent company & sell the rest of BBD to satisfy the creditors.

    For me , the shares are actually worthless , any investors should actually sell them even at the low $ 1.00 - 1.65

    Nicéphore de Montréal
    Jul 15, 2015. 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy - Does Anybody Know What's Going On? [View article]
    Dallas Salz

    Maybe the management are intentionnally to keep us ( lost in the wood , so to speak ) , because they dont know what strategy to do with prices of oïl & NG
    that lows. Maybe it is a waiting game to see if the price of commodity to go North
    further & then decide what plan of action ( if prices are better )

    Now , with prices like this , they got them the pants down & nothing look good so to speak . So they say noting , they will say things when prices would be better.

    You said that you had useless calls ( Probably in long 6-9 months with strike
    over $ 20 ..... maybe ?? . Wrong play , like me with IBM & HAL in nov dec /14 )

    Wrongs bets ...... shits happens as traders we are !!

    So far , it look that CLM5 & NGM15 are going respectively @ $ 61-63 and $ 2.79- 3.15 ; If those prices ocurred very soon , it would be CHK to go between
    $ 16.25-17 ;
    Also the graphique with SMA 200,50,20 of CHK look to change up .

    CHK can be a Short term winning bet , but I NEVER bet for the long term

    I am a kind of Cramerican Trader : Take the money and Go !! ; And Go for me
    it is to go my next short term winning bet. And they are so many !!

    Have a good week

    Pierre Bouillon alias Niceephore

    Montréal Nord , Canada

    PS : I am in the positions for 0615 calls on CHK
    May 9, 2015. 08:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM fuses e-mail with analytics, social tools [View news story]

    Very good argument , I am in agreeance !!
    Nov 18, 2014. 06:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zacks' Bear Of The Day: Axiall [View article]
    Now I get you !!

    Axiall ..... the bear of the day ??? Hahaha !!

    It maid the marks & surpassed it in a difficult industry . What the BOD & Paul Carrico' s team told about the operations look to be thruth & operate properly
    in all theirs divisions.

    1 - Chlorovynil maintains their business & margin et i will be surprised to see an increase of sales & a net margin % from 9.2 to 12 ish % for next quater

    2- Builing matérial mais a robust performance

    3.- Aromatics maintain business & is back in profitabilité

    Now , we can compare trading with last year & see the tendance going to $ 47-49 by mid november

    AXLL .... the bear of the day ..... ??? hahaha........ wrong bet

    also tcheck Financial results of India based DCM Shriram and see
    what division maid bnig time on their turnaround operation ??

    Also Zack are gonna make FOOL of themself in proclaiming F ( FORD ) as
    the bear of the day ................. BEEEEP ..... !!
    Are you crazy ??

    Who' s fr""")(*&? g bozos working in investmnt research at Zack's ??

    Downgrading a stock kike ford that have a P/E of 9 & a D/Y of over 3.4% , what are you sniffing ???. Even if they have $ 1.63 eps for 2014 , that it is excellent , the stock can push to $ 16-19 Azov next month !!

    I am very suspicious of a research group like ZACK , they sending you 15 emails per day & you have telemarketing calls from the states ( i am living in
    Mtl Canada ( near north pole .... hahaha ) .... they AGRESSIVELY want to sell me

    If it is good , they will not have problems attract/keep custumers !!

    I personally do business with a Wisconsin trader who have his own research site
    it is very convénient , easy to use & fun to operate . No calls , no emails , the site is el gratos , somebody generous that is proud to share his knowhow to the
    investors community

    We should have MORE CW ( his initials ) and very very very less of the Zack' s

    which I proclaming is :

    THE BEAR OF reseach house !!
    ( unreliable , parasital & wrong !! )

    Nicéphore de Montréal
    Nov 11, 2014. 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent: It's Just A Question Of Quarters Before Cash Flow Improves [View article]
    But Serge ,

    There is always a fricken surprises of those quaterly '' Réorg charges '' , Last
    Quarter is $ 275 M

    When this process of réorganising will end & we will see some PROFITS ??

    Montréal, North América
    Aug 18, 2014. 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent: It's Just A Question Of Quarters Before Cash Flow Improves [View article]

    Sometimes I makes Great Trades like this month with Target & Conagra

    But on ALU , i am a complete idiot !!

    Aug 11, 2014. 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent: It's Just A Question Of Quarters Before Cash Flow Improves [View article]

    I feel very deceived about ALU .

    I was hoping they can AT LEAST meet the Sales Concensus ( 4.0-4.2 euros ). With all that LTE development & other good technos news going on , I though
    the company was on the mend.

    We have to see Q3 to look for improvment , otherwise , it is no Hope for this

    I am very disappointed . I see this thing falling in the $ 2.85-3.05 by mid august
    then to improve to levels we saw recently ( $ 3.65-3.85 ) by end sept/oct

    Then with my "stratégie de trades en dent de scie '' , I will be able to exit out
    that bad trades as I did with Alcoa last year .

    For the community , maybe I am wrong , but I Nomore see some upside (
    like $ 4.75-$ 5.50 ) within end of 2014

    Niceephore de Montréal
    Jul 31, 2014. 08:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Target: A Strong Buy [View article]
    And that' s why the central bankers will never ever set $$$ Policy
    to have the inerest rate to go up , because it will deflate the whole
    Investments world valuation , that is too much.

    Tcheck this , when that 10 years US bond will be passing the 3 1/8 -
    3 3/8 % mark , then the real estates values will start to plummet
    & so the REITs , the utilities , etc , etc . Theck the price of ETR for
    example , never been that high . I had traded this play last fall praying
    to see it north of $ 63 1/2 & now it is $ 81+ ; Same company , same
    fundammental , just to realise that the market is Sniffing ( by the nose )
    too much ...... it is kind of non senses !!

    Nicéephore de Montréal
    Jun 30, 2014. 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Target: A Strong Buy [View article]

    I am a short term trader . The graphics ( Mountain , RSI,CCI & DMI ) look fine to me . When I predict certain levels of the price of the shares
    it is my convictions what thoses graphics tell me.

    So far , I have around +/- 65 % reliabilities on those graphics.

    But I agree : This TGT can be '' une boite de Pandore '' to you american to know what I mean ............ re : Pandora box.

    Anyway , I dont agree of the évaluation of the stock :

    Payinne 19.50 x P/E for a retail stores , c' est prétentieux !!

    For me , it should Worth 12 1/2 to 14 X P/E

    But as Lyod Blankfein said the other day :


    A good day , The big ballon gonna blow KABBBOOMM !!
    Jun 29, 2014. 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finisar - Dramatic Margin Pressure Triggers A Sell-Off [View article]

    I dont know into lookiinne at tiny détails & stuffs , but what I heard from Conférence call & Financial documentation .... it look to me like


    I Think their guidances are conservatives , to show a Q12015 Gross sales
    of $ 327.5M and a net profit of $ 33.6M seem to me OK.

    It will post total 2015 EPS around $ 1.32-1.48/share ...... @ $19.50 & change
    FNSR look to me as a BARGAIN

    I will not be surprised to see the company in the $22/23 in coming weeks & around $ 24 1/2 to 26 by fall

    Nicéephore de Montréal

    Agree with Mr Marlowe
    Jun 24, 2014. 07:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment