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wantedtoretireearly

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  • Is The Arbitrage Value On Vivint Solar Appropriate? [View article]
    Casual, thanks so much for this excellent article which has been very useful to me in understanding the disaster that SUNE has gotten itself into. In spite of all that, I remain heartened that you are still long, and the reasons why you are still long. I do hope that management has learned from this - as it has hurt them badly economically and reputationally. If your thesis changes, please let us know as you have a lot of credibility in my book.
    Aug 26, 2015. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced CEO Gutierrez resigns [View news story]
    So true. I had plenty of time to sell my GTAT, which I should have done after Apple clearly was not going to use it and it was my fault for not taking a small loss then. GTAT was the worst investment decision of my life, but I have only myself to blame in the end. I know you can't trust management.
    Aug 17, 2015. 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar stocks sell off again; Deutsche defends SUNE after plunge (updated) [View news story]
    Casual, you have been doing a great job and I do follow your posts. Keep up the good work!
    Aug 12, 2015. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Will Need To Restructure [View article]
    Well said and so obviously true. There are none so blind as those that refuse to see. As an American tax payer, I am thrilled that NASA is paying SpaceX for much less expensive launches instead of going through the traditional method of handing out huge wasteful no bid contracts to contractors like Boeing and others that traditionally built these rockets. One look at the incredible waste that goes on with Defense purchases in other sectors such as the grotesque cost overruns on new fighter planes makes me wish that there was an equivalent to SpaceX in that sector.
    Jul 27, 2015. 03:41 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity's Manufacturing Plans Are Being Underestimated [View article]
    Hilarious! God knows, these are enormous bets that Elon is making - some of the biggest I have ever seen an entrepreneur make in my life time. If he succeeds, he will become the most consequential entrepreneur since Thomas Edison. But there are certainly many negative outcomes as well. I am rooting for him, because people like him are the planet's best hope to stop the effects of global warming before it is too late and I want my daughter to live in a cleaner, better world.
    Jul 22, 2015. 07:20 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Why The Smart Money Is Short [View article]
    Exactly! Even a superficial understanding of this company shows that this company wants to fundamentally rewire the way energy is used, produced and stored - for utilities and homes using solar and for automobiles. Tesla is far more than an auto company - and as someone who follows the solar market closely, I know that grid parity with solar is going to become reality in almost all markets by 2017 - and solar is already much cheaper than fossil fuels in many markets today. A key missing piece in the solar puzzle is energy storage, which the Gigafactory will solve. The $800 million in initial orders for the PowerWall shows what demand is out there already, and it will increase exponentially in the next few years. The biggest buyers will be utilities, as they can use batteries to store energy and meet peak demand instead of building expensive substations that are off line most of the time. Musk gets this - and smart Tesla longs get this. Tesla is about far more than EV's, it's about a fundamental change in our entire use of energy. The potential market size is in the trillions.
    Jul 21, 2015. 03:55 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Organic Growth Alone Suggests $150/Shr For SolarCity, Especially If ITC Is Extended [View article]
    I have to agree. Relying on the GOP, which has become so irrational and difficult to work with as a party (heck, their own party leaders can't get them to agree), is a pipe dream. I don't see it happening unless there is a huge Democratic wave if Hillary takes the White House. Until then, the lobbyists working for the Koch brothers and other Oil and Gas interests will kill this bill.
    Jun 22, 2015. 05:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity's Growth Continues To Impress [View article]
    INteresting analogy - and I think an apt one. There are many consumers like me that care passionately about these issues. I eat at Chipotle but have vowed NEVER to eat at McDonald's again. And I care even more about replacing filthy fuels with solar and other alternative sources. I agree with you that marketing green will really start to snowball. I am especially enthusiastic about Bernstein's latest research that says that by 2018 the economics of solar over fossil fuels will competely change the game.
    May 6, 2015. 11:58 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought Twitter On The 18% Drop [View article]
    Brian, well said. I fully remember the very strong and well reasoned arguments by bears on SA about why both FB and Tesla were bad investments and doomed not to make money. As a FB user, I decided not to listen and bought at $19. Unfortunately, I did listen when TSLA was at $28 when what I should have done is at least take a small speculative investment, just as you did here.

    What the bears don't realize is that, especially in the field of Tech, things can change quickly and a business model that was not working can quickly turn around if management can seize the opportunity. Agree that management has been having problems doing that, but that could change with a new feature like Periscope etc. Ironically, as I type this, I see 3 options below the comment box - add this comment to twitter, facebook and linkedIn. It speaks to how essential Twitter has made itself as a core Internet property. There is still the strong chance that it could fine tune its business model and become profitable. Good luck to us both.
    Apr 29, 2015. 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity - Lawsuit Against SRP Has Large Implications [View article]
    This is from a major new 32 page report that Bernstein Research just put out on solar and how the economics of solar will not require subsidies by 2018.

    "Utilities can ignore the encroachment of SolarCity-style business models into what are traditionally their most attractive residential customers (home-owning, high-credit scoring households) and hope that our forecasts about falling costs and improving technology are wrong. Alternately, utilities can replicate the SolarCity model of “leasing” the rooftop to provide solar and energy storage on a no-money-down basis and effectively disintermediate themselves. We assume distributed solar leasing businesses will start including energy storage as part of their service to address changes in net metering policies, etc. The third choice is to go on the offensive: utilities can look for ways to develop new sources of residential electricity demand. The most obvious opportunity is electric vehicles. We have been suggesting this as inevitable since last November. We have found at least one regional utility executive thinking the same way: Fraser Whineray from Mighty River Power in New Zealand."
    Apr 9, 2015. 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity - Lawsuit Against SRP Has Large Implications [View article]
    Excellent, well reasoned post. Thanks and let's hope the courts agree.
    Apr 9, 2015. 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Headwinds For New Tesla Financing: Estimates Declining And P/E Multiples At Historic Peak [View article]
    I guess the fact that Consumer Reports gave them an almost perfect score twice was some kind of delusion on their part. I have a friend who has a Tesla and it is without a doubt the most impressive consumer machine I have ever seen. I don't think these mindless bears have done any real DD on the value of the product. I think you can make all kinds of good bearish arguments on the financial future of Tesla, but the product itself is extremely impressive. As another bear posted - the question is simple. Is the company 5 years too early or not? EV's are absolutely the future - and must be so for many reasons. (Same with solar and alternative fuels in general.) The basic question is timing - and no one has a crystal ball. But if anyone can do this, it is Elon Musk. I'm betting on him because the future of the planet depends to a certain extent on whether he succeeds.
    Apr 8, 2015. 11:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Headwinds For New Tesla Financing: Estimates Declining And P/E Multiples At Historic Peak [View article]
    A very pithy statement of the bear case. I am cautiously long at around $200 a share, but furious at myself for not pulling the trigger when it was at $28 - I came so close to buying 1000 shares at the time :( I find the arguments here fascinating and well reasoned on both sides. It's a great debate.
    Apr 8, 2015. 11:32 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity - Lawsuit Against SRP Has Large Implications [View article]
    It is remarkable to me that in a state absolutely flooded with sunlight and covered by vast desert, that a major utility could take such an obvious, anti-solar and anti competitive position. I know Arizona is very conservative politically - I'm curious as to whether local law makers are also anti-solar or whether they have spoken out about how SRP is trying to destroy the solar market in that state. At a minimum, I would think that people who have jobs in the solar industry would be petitionning their local and federal representatives.

    Any idea of when the first ruling will be on this issue? SCTY needs to go to the mat on this issue and fight this as hard as it possibly can. Otherwise, other utilities will definitely use similar tactics to try and slow down the adoption of solar, instead of adapting their grids and their pricing structure to the new reality.
    Apr 7, 2015. 03:30 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Overlooked Synergism With SolarCity [View article]
    Why anyone who cares about transitioning our economy to alternative energy and away from dirty oil and coal would vote Republican is beyond me. They are openly hostile to alternative energy, the science behind global warming etc. and are completely beholden to oil and gas interests. Not a surprise since much of the economies of Red States like Texas and Wyoming are dependent on fossil fuels.
    Mar 18, 2015. 03:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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