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wantedtoretireearly

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  • SolarCity - Lawsuit Against SRP Has Large Implications [View article]
    This is from a major new 32 page report that Bernstein Research just put out on solar and how the economics of solar will not require subsidies by 2018.

    "Utilities can ignore the encroachment of SolarCity-style business models into what are traditionally their most attractive residential customers (home-owning, high-credit scoring households) and hope that our forecasts about falling costs and improving technology are wrong. Alternately, utilities can replicate the SolarCity model of “leasing” the rooftop to provide solar and energy storage on a no-money-down basis and effectively disintermediate themselves. We assume distributed solar leasing businesses will start including energy storage as part of their service to address changes in net metering policies, etc. The third choice is to go on the offensive: utilities can look for ways to develop new sources of residential electricity demand. The most obvious opportunity is electric vehicles. We have been suggesting this as inevitable since last November. We have found at least one regional utility executive thinking the same way: Fraser Whineray from Mighty River Power in New Zealand."
    Apr 9, 2015. 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity - Lawsuit Against SRP Has Large Implications [View article]
    Excellent, well reasoned post. Thanks and let's hope the courts agree.
    Apr 9, 2015. 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Headwinds For New Tesla Financing: Estimates Declining And P/E Multiples At Historic Peak [View article]
    I guess the fact that Consumer Reports gave them an almost perfect score twice was some kind of delusion on their part. I have a friend who has a Tesla and it is without a doubt the most impressive consumer machine I have ever seen. I don't think these mindless bears have done any real DD on the value of the product. I think you can make all kinds of good bearish arguments on the financial future of Tesla, but the product itself is extremely impressive. As another bear posted - the question is simple. Is the company 5 years too early or not? EV's are absolutely the future - and must be so for many reasons. (Same with solar and alternative fuels in general.) The basic question is timing - and no one has a crystal ball. But if anyone can do this, it is Elon Musk. I'm betting on him because the future of the planet depends to a certain extent on whether he succeeds.
    Apr 8, 2015. 11:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Headwinds For New Tesla Financing: Estimates Declining And P/E Multiples At Historic Peak [View article]
    A very pithy statement of the bear case. I am cautiously long at around $200 a share, but furious at myself for not pulling the trigger when it was at $28 - I came so close to buying 1000 shares at the time :( I find the arguments here fascinating and well reasoned on both sides. It's a great debate.
    Apr 8, 2015. 11:32 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity - Lawsuit Against SRP Has Large Implications [View article]
    It is remarkable to me that in a state absolutely flooded with sunlight and covered by vast desert, that a major utility could take such an obvious, anti-solar and anti competitive position. I know Arizona is very conservative politically - I'm curious as to whether local law makers are also anti-solar or whether they have spoken out about how SRP is trying to destroy the solar market in that state. At a minimum, I would think that people who have jobs in the solar industry would be petitionning their local and federal representatives.

    Any idea of when the first ruling will be on this issue? SCTY needs to go to the mat on this issue and fight this as hard as it possibly can. Otherwise, other utilities will definitely use similar tactics to try and slow down the adoption of solar, instead of adapting their grids and their pricing structure to the new reality.
    Apr 7, 2015. 03:30 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Overlooked Synergism With SolarCity [View article]
    Why anyone who cares about transitioning our economy to alternative energy and away from dirty oil and coal would vote Republican is beyond me. They are openly hostile to alternative energy, the science behind global warming etc. and are completely beholden to oil and gas interests. Not a surprise since much of the economies of Red States like Texas and Wyoming are dependent on fossil fuels.
    Mar 18, 2015. 03:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Changing The Game: Canadian Solar's Acquisition Of Recurrent Energy [View article]
    Nice article. Helped me understand why the deal made the stock pop 25% in one day. I'm assuming that alot of that had to be short covering, as they understood their thesis was now flawed. Do you think they'll announce the Yieldco this year? And if so, will that be a further catalyst or was that already priced into the recent pop?
    Feb 11, 2015. 11:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar stocks bounce as market rallies, Deutsche pounds table [View news story]
    Thank you.
    Jan 21, 2015. 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar stocks bounce as market rallies, Deutsche pounds table [View news story]
    Banker, could you tell me what kinds of calls you bought and for what companies?
    Jan 13, 2015. 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity Update: Short Interest Surges [View article]
    I am long SCTY but this very high short interest makes me very nervous. Many shorts are the "smart" money that understand the complexities of valuing a company far more than I ever will. My worst investment ever was GTAT, which also had a short interest around 40%. I should have paid closer attention to that and significantly reduced my position, especially after it was clear Apple was not going to use them. Very different companies and risk profiles - yes - but still I think shorts think that SCTY is very overvalued and that it's business model will need to significantly change after the ITC change in 2017. There is a lot of smart money betting against this company, and I'm sure they have some very well thought reasons for doing so. Holding, but nervous.
    Jan 13, 2015. 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's A Lot To Like About Shake Shack [View article]
    I have been eating at Shake Shack since it opened at Madison Square Park all those years ago - that's the few times when the line was not an hour long. (They had to install a webcam so that people could see how long the line was before coming.) The concept is brilliant - it's essentially gourmet junk food - and their burgers, shakes, fries etc. are really outstanding. They bear little resemblance to McDonalds. Ingredients are top notch and very tasty. Every store since then that I have seen in Manhattan is packed. I love that they serve some really fine wine and beer as well. This is NOT your average fast food burger joint. It is a burger place created by one of the city's finest restaurateurs - which means he is one of the top restaurateurs in the country. I see tremendous growth possibilities, especially in cities with lots of yuppies like Austin, San Francisco, Chicago etc. I am very bullish on this IPO, but my big fear is that, being a Manhattan fixture for years, every trader on Wall Street will be thinking the same thing and will be buying in.
    Jan 9, 2015. 06:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian Solar: Well Positioned For The Future [View article]
    You make very good arguments. I listened to similar arguments when TSLA was at $28, did not go with my gut and lost out on one of the greatest trades ever in my experience. My point is that especially with companies in young industries with huge potential you just don't know. So unless you invest in an ETF it's my strategy to take positions in the top solar companies but be disciplined about staying diversified- a lesson I have learned the hard way.
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: Can Current Shareholders Walk Away With Any Value? [View article]
    Never, you have be skeptical of all analysts - as no one has an accurate and complete picture of the truth except the insiders at the company. And they were selling shares. This is true for those long and short. No one totally knows in investing, you can only make educated guesses, and some are more educated than others. Think of the millions of investors that got shafted by the bankruptcies of Lehman, Merril Lyncy, Enron etc. I have no one but myself to blame. Should have just had a small speculative position and let it get way too big based on the hype. Rookie mistake. Matt was smart but not objective enough - that was a warning sign. But at least he disclosed that he owned shares. Good argument for just listening to analysts that have no positions and are potentially more objective.
    Oct 8, 2014. 03:06 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: What Is The Value Of The SiC Business? [View article]
    I like this part: Come Tuesday, if Apple does unveil the new iPhone 6 in 4.7” and 5.5” with minimal sapphire usage, then look no further than to the Wall St. analysts’ price targets of $19-$23 for a good estimate of what GTAT could be worth in the near term. But if instead Apple comes out with 4.7” and 5.5” iPhones available in sapphire in significant quantities, then the Wall St. analysts will have to scramble to adjust their price targets upward. And if Apple were to unveil a sapphire covered wearable at the same time, then those price target revisions will have to be significant.
    Sep 8, 2014. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies Is Ready To Electrify The Mobile World [View article]
    Matt, ZDNet has already picked up your thesis here. YOu are true market mover on this stock! Keep up the good work.

    http://zd.net/1g4KPuk
    Mar 3, 2014. 11:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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