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Ed Porter

Ed Porter
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  • Bezos has Amazon succession plan in place [View news story]
    "nonsense rhetoric response from those with an agenda".

    Auto-biographical in the extreme Gary. Well done!
    Dec 7, 2014. 03:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bezos has Amazon succession plan in place [View news story]
    What a tiresome set of suggestions to do an accounting class!

    Q4 FCF is a cherry-picked number. Period.

    What is your Q1 FCF forecast? According to youir 'accounting class'.

    We both agree, ANNUAL numbers are where its at. Why are we wasting our time with quarterly numbers with gigantic seasonality in them?

    Once we agree on looking at annual, rather than just rejecting my idea of what sort of Price/FCF multiple would be reasonable, why don't you let me and us know what your idea is?

    Personally, I think a P/FCF ratio of 20x, for a mature company is as high as it should be - and so at current market cap (careful here, falling day by day so the numbers are changing) - that puts it roughly around $7bln or $8bln annual FCF.

    So rather than just saying you disagree with my opinion (as that's all it is) - if you are 'into' FCF could you let me know please:

    a) What sort of P/FCF ratio you think would be reasonable for a mature company
    b) Given the level of FCF that throws off for Amazon, what timeframe do you see the company needing to attain that level of FCF?
    Dec 7, 2014. 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bezos has Amazon succession plan in place [View news story]
    "As I said above, they are likely to generate $4-5 billion in free cash in 4Q".

    And what about the following quarter, when they settle all their accounts payable??

    Try throwing around some annual FCF figures - they might be an awful lot more helpful.

    Clue: The annual figure is substantially lower than the very cherry-picked quarterly figure you have put out there.

    Another clue: For a $150bn market cap stock to be 'fairly priced' based on FCF, I'd personally suggest you need that FCF to be no less than $7-8bln annually. You see that on the horizon?
    Dec 4, 2014. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bezos has Amazon succession plan in place [View news story]
    No - "not short on cash at all" - in fact they are so 'long cash' they are borrowing another 6 yards of the stuff and getting downgraded for their trouble.

    So why would you do that again? Particularly when you are "not short on cash at all"?

    Don't tell me - "investing for the future", right?
    Dec 4, 2014. 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Going Back On Sale [View article]
    At least food then diapers has some kind of digestive progression to it. Perhaps there is a plan after all?
    Dec 4, 2014. 04:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon launches food-ordering service [View news story]
    One of the major flaws in Amazon's thinking is that their brand is so awesome and customers love them sooo much they will keep on buying absolutely anything off them.

    As a result Amazon seems to have a weird a belief they can have a crack at absolutely anything based on some notion of ultra-loyal, ultra-widespread consumer 'fans'.

    So, based on this confident (but messed up) view, Amazon introduce - wait for it - a smart phone!

    WTF were you thinking Amazon?

    Who would want an 'Amazon' phone?

    (Geez, I bet even Gary doesn't have one!).

    When you think your 'phone' sits nicely on the shelf next to MAJOR, and LOVED manufacturers you are in a whole new world of delusion.
    Dec 4, 2014. 04:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon launches food-ordering service [View news story]
    What about planting a gigantic rainforest in South America?
    Dec 4, 2014. 04:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Going Back On Sale [View article]
    Unfortunately that "lower cost" still hasn't resulted - yet - in a sustainable business model.

    Nearly TWENTY YEARS and trying - I wonder what tricks there are up the sleeve to make it work?

    Meanwhile, as a consumer of almost any product you care to mention - well, I'm laughing all the way to the bank! Incredible cut-throat competition, introduced and egged on by Amazon. Thanks Amazon!

    The question is - if you buy stock NOW, will you be laughing all the way to the bank too?

    I know what I think!
    Dec 4, 2014. 04:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Helmerich & Payne Added To Portfolio [View article]
    Thanks for the article and also the observation regarding stock repurchases.

    Although some time away, the NEXT quarterly report will be very telling.... if the company has significantly stepped up its repurchase program the unavoidable conclusion - right from the horse's mouth - will be:

    "$65-70 crude? Doesn't bother us a bit, we consider our stock a bargain at this price".

    So yes, any increase in the program I think has to very bullish, because the company will be saying "we don't particularly care even if crude drops a bit more yet - i.e. we'd rather buy our stock now rather than wait around to see what happens"..

    Conversely, if the company does not get a bit more active then I think the conclusion is that the company wants to see the dust settling on the decline in crude before doing anything.

    But while that could be seen as 'bearish', I don't think it would be to the same extent as the opposite would be "bullish".... if that makes sense!
    Dec 1, 2014. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Travel: A Unique Disruptive Force In The Online Travel Space [View article]
    ($4)
    Dec 1, 2014. 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Travel: A Unique Disruptive Force In The Online Travel Space [View article]
    So, I sell one widget for $10 and spend $12 shipping it and I lose $2.

    But you think if I sell two widgets its automatically good news?

    You might want to check your math. (101).
    Nov 30, 2014. 05:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Travel: A Unique Disruptive Force In The Online Travel Space [View article]
    That's why its funny when 'more Black Friday sales' is seen as being GOOD news for AMZN.

    Um, so you sell stuff, then spend too much to deliver it and so you lose money and report crummy numbers.

    And then what you do is you sell even more of it, at even lower prices, still pay the same 'far too much' on delivery and..... hey presto..... you lose even more!

    So what part of that is 'good news' again?

    Actually I am being short-sighted - it's all very good news because its, um, well, "an investment in growth".
    Nov 30, 2014. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP Earnings Imply Bad News For Intel [View article]
    The "simple thesis" seems to have completely ignored the "simple possibility" that the server market is still fine but HP have lost market-share?
    Nov 27, 2014. 05:39 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Travel: A Unique Disruptive Force In The Online Travel Space [View article]
    Perhaps AMZN will get into e-commerce soon too?

    Offer a wide range of goods for consumers to purchase, and then deliver to them?
    Nov 27, 2014. 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon Travel Has Little Chance Of Disrupting OTAs: Lessons From Google [View article]
    TWO questions in a single post to Gary!?
    Nov 26, 2014. 08:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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