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Ed Porter

Ed Porter
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  • Load Up On SodaStream Especially If It Drops To $30 [View article]
    I am in New Zealand, and I distinctly recall my mother telling me 35 years ago that we were not going to buy a SodaStream because it was (her words) "a fad".

    It's still here, and no-one would remotely raise an eyebrow if they saw one on someone's kitchen bench. A normal part of daily life for many households.... 35 years later....

    Is that "a fad"?
    Jan 14 04:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Load Up On SodaStream Especially If It Drops To $30 [View article]
    If the company provides weak guidance for Q1 - which they are likely to do? - the stock could well go for another 10-15% into the low 30s.

    So I agree with the concept of keeping some powder dry, but equally, if you can live with the stock falling there before, you are hoping, starting to climb solidly back toward $50 and above, then you are better off simply getting everything you need around current price.
    Jan 14 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing Longbow Research's Downgrade Of SodaStream [View article]
    What I find extraordinary is that despite all the 'analysis' on the stock, no-one seems to have been able to pick that the Gross Margin - which is has been rock solid at 53-55% for about 20 quarters, should suddenly implode into the mid-40's.

    Why people pay outfits like NPD, or indeed any 'analyst' who is not aware of such MASSIVE price adjustments taking place, is totally beyond me.
    Jan 14 03:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Are The Analysts Getting Cold Feet? [View article]
    "invest" is the term people use to kid themselves they are not "betting" when they are purchasing stocks.
    Jan 14 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is SodaStream's Crash Warranted? [View article]
    Do you mean buy the dips to go with your G&T?
    Jan 13 03:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is SodaStream's Crash Warranted? [View article]
    And doesn't the lower GM, off a base of revenues as forecast, imply the company actually sold MORE machines than it had planned (albeit at a drastically lowered price)?

    If so then the refill data from here on should be higher than previously forecast?

    I wonder if the lower machine prices are a direct response to the threat of machines from other vendors? i.e. sell them our machine before they get a chance to buy another one - and that way we lock up the refill 'contract' going forward?
    Jan 13 03:17 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is SodaStream's Crash Warranted? [View article]
    Unusual definition of "One word"...

    That said, agree that management are likely to guide red Q1 - a) because it may well be the 'right' guidance anyway, and b) because even if they think it might be actually be a (low) profit they may well figure they are better off being pretty conservative in any case.

    So the question will be how well the market will absorb such guidance.

    I think history shows it will certainly push the stock lower - but I think if it falls a LOT more on that guidance then THAT would be an overreaction (I think today's action is about right).

    So I think anyone who is long who wants to 'look through' these results has to accept the stock may head into the low 30s as and when management make that guidance.

    Personally I would imagine (almost regardless of what the guidance actually is) that such a level would be then quite mis-priced on the low side, and I may well look to acquire some longer term calls.
    Jan 13 02:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Are The Analysts Getting Cold Feet? [View article]
    With all due respect, I personally believe that making a decision on whether or not to own Micron stock based on the terms of a future sale of $250m of product (representing a mere 1.5% of total revenues!?!?) is madness.

    Waaaaaaaay too much detail!

    The big picture is COMPLETELY unchanged.
    Jan 9 03:03 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Are The Analysts Getting Cold Feet? [View article]
    "Icahn will pitch a fit"?

    Wow, I hope they go ahead and do it then!
    Jan 8 10:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's What You Need To Know About Micron Technology [View article]
    Anybody who had been paying any attention at all to the Seeking Alpha boards knew!
    Jan 8 03:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Are The Analysts Getting Cold Feet? [View article]
    "Their run rate is already $0.30+ higher if you knock out a couple of the one-time costs. That puts it at $1.07".

    Careful not to double-count Mike. Didn't the $0.77 already knock out the one-time costs?
    Jan 7 10:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Are The Analysts Getting Cold Feet? [View article]
    Well on a run rate of JUST $3 eps the stock is on a P/E of 'only' 10x at $30 (although admittedly thats probably a fair multiple).

    If the 'actual' earnings can be $4 as gently surmised by Russ then the stock would be on a P/E of 'only' 7.5x.

    Can it go to $30 'in a hurry'? - Yes, most definitely!

    It won't tomorrow, and it might not get there in the 'next run', but my central expection would certainly be that it can bet at $27 within 2-3 weeks.
    Jan 7 10:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Are The Analysts Getting Cold Feet? [View article]
    well it sounds like you must have done some sort of running of the numbers Jaret :-)
    Jan 7 10:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron: Are The Analysts Getting Cold Feet? [View article]
    Have absolutely no doubt that some of the contributors here are HUGELY responsible for the gigantic shift in how well Micron reported this time round.

    Yes the result was good, and we loved that, but the clarity was chalk and cheese to last quarter and I am certain that Micron have taken on board some highly constructive criticism from those here.

    Well done to those who have been beating down Kipp's email in-box.

    And especially well done (no superlative strong enough) to Russ for being the shining light above all others.

    THANK YOU!
    Jan 7 05:35 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reviewing Longbow Research's Downgrade Of SodaStream [View article]
    Couldn't agree more Dominick.... blindly taking a number from ANY source is folly.

    I use Bloomberg a lot - but have noticed over the past 2-3 years the use of 'adjusted' EPS has crept back in - to the point where it is now the default!

    Now, adjusted EPS is sometimes VERY valid, at other times it is 'fair enough' and a lot of the time it is nothing more than blatant chicanery.

    I even asked Bloomberg if I could configure it such that it once more defaulted to 'GAAP' EPS, and was told I couldn't!

    Another prime reason to be very wary of Yahoo and other sources, is the lack of adjustment for tax. Sometimes 'analysts' will post here somewhere that "such and such is on a P/E of 7x" without remotely noting the company had a gigantic one-off tax credit the year before.

    All in all I believe that the term P/E should always have attached to it the year to which it refers, and then suggests any appropriate amendments that should be made to it.

    With that in mind, I think Seth was right to ask what the contributor's P/E was based on, though he may have chosen to ask it in a fractionally more conversational tone.

    The reply, however, was downright rude. And the 'admission' of calculating "PE just like Yahoo" is a clear indicator as to the standards of due diligence applied.
    Jan 7 03:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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