One Truth About Amazon (That You Probably Didn't Know) [View article]
Its true that if it improved it would be good news....
... but perhaps the more pertinent question is:
"why is Amazon's current rate so abysmal given it is an e-commerce pioneer, and given that after 15 years the number is so poor, why is there any reason to believe it can be improved?".
Anyone interested in asking a question about the financials, or is that simply irrelevant this days?
For example -:
If your Operating Income was (supposedly) so good, why was your Net Income so appalling?
Why is your annual free cash flow, even after adding back your $1.4bn spent on property, worse than 2011?
Why was your tax rate 58% in the quarter?
The lack of objective questions about the company's financial viability, tells you everything you need to know about the community of 'analysts' (I'll try not to laugh) and ergo why the stock is trading in a world all of its own.
Amazon's Smoke And Mirrors Are Fading [View article]
Like so many stocks held VERY tightly by institutions, there exists an agreement (which may be implicit or explicit) not to sell the holding. In that instance, unless there is some extraordinary short selling, the 'worst case' scenario is that the stock goes sideways.
Those sorts of agreements are always fine, until........ until....... just ONE needs to sell.
Once they do, the stock price goes down (presumably - although it may only be slightly), but critically the 'power' of the remaining holders is diluted.
Moreover, several other holders will be jolted into thinking "well, if one's gone now, who's going next, and should it be me?".
It is just a normal 'confidence game' but played with fewer players and supposedly within an impregnable agreement.
I don't know what the catalyst will be, but once a long-term institutional holder starts selling it will be the beginning of the end.
Interesting thing is what Bezos will do with his holding.... I mean he sells 200,000 shares like the other day, gets $300m for it - nice work if you can get it - but he'll surely want to dramatically increase his liquidations long before its really down the gurgler. And doing that will only reinforce the picture of the sinking ship.
The bottom line is that 'cartels' are only workable as long as every single member of it remains in it, and that in turn demands that all of them have similar circumstances and no-one of them 'suddenly' has to do something different to the others for some reason or other.
One final thing.... the more AMZN goes up, the greater the chance that one (or more) of the institutional holders will be getting itchy fingers (as there is more and more capital gain to be realised).
Actually, no, the final thing is the rhetorical question will be just how great those holders of AMZN ten year notes paying a princely 2.50% per annum will feel once all this starts to unravel....
I thought this article was going to present me with some hitherto unknown fact about margin.
Instead, the article points out that AMZN is unfairly criticised for low margins - and then goes on to succintly and brilliant make a very clear point of......... the very low margins that AMZN makes....
...0.7%
... and in a declining trend.
I think the author has made what we might term - an 'anti-point'.
Herbalife's Value Chain - Can You Spot The Loser? [View article]
But if Herbalife continues to grow won't there 'suddenly' be more and more people wearing black Herbalife T-Shirts approaching people?
And then, won't 'potential' new distributors start to realise that outside of their own immediate group of friends and family they have absolutely no exclusivity over the domain?
That's the pure reason why Herbalife totally outlaw any advertising on their 'clubs' - to keep potential new distributors unaware that turf is already well trodden.
I mean, a RETAIL outfit that doesn't want to have 'free advertising' on its 'shops'?? a PRODUCT that the company would rather 'keep quiet'??
Come on, that's the most ludicrous proposition I've heard in a very long time.
Google Might Have Decided To Put Amazon.com Out Of Business [View article]
my 10 cents worth is that your target and stop loss are too tight. I'd personally sell less shares, have a higher stop (no less than $300), but be waiting for an awful lot lower target.... like $150 or so.
Clearly if the stock got momentum to the downside you'd possibly want to scale back from, say, $230/240 and bank a bit of profit.
My other 10 cents worth is that I don't think it's worth shorting AMZN until the general market starts falling. It essentially is the pin-up of 'fundamentals don't matter'.... so it's own particular story will not matter to the market until the market is ready once again to start taking things seriously.
All of which means I'd probably aim to create a short over the next 3-9 mths.... perhaps putting on a third of my position just before next earnings, and then progressively adding to it after that.
I think the main reason that Amazon needs cash is ... because it has run out of cash.
Like so many other corporates they can probably scarcely believe how bond "investors" are willing to accept laughably low rates of return. Yes, it's because the Fed has driven the yield curve down to artificially ludicrous levels, but ultimately no-one is holding a gun to anyone's head and MAKING someone go and buy a 4% bond just because the equivalent Treasury yields 2%.
Ultimately if I was a corporate and could be raising money for super-long periods of time at super-low rates I'd be doing it all day long. Why wouldn't I?
I can barely believe some of the bonds I see listed now... 30 year corporate bonds with 4 handles! Good lord, you think you can see 30 years into the future?!?
One Truth About Amazon (That You Probably Didn't Know) [View article]
... but perhaps the more pertinent question is:
"why is Amazon's current rate so abysmal given it is an e-commerce pioneer, and given that after 15 years the number is so poor, why is there any reason to believe it can be improved?".
Chronically Criminal: Shielding The Public From Medical Marijuana [View article]
"Disclosure: I am long XXXX, folks please read the first line - please"?
I am just curious why there is such vitriol towards those who are short stock but none at all towards contributors who are long stock.
They're both just 'positions', aren't they?
Amazon.com's Management Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
For example -:
If your Operating Income was (supposedly) so good, why was your Net Income so appalling?
Why is your annual free cash flow, even after adding back your $1.4bn spent on property, worse than 2011?
Why was your tax rate 58% in the quarter?
The lack of objective questions about the company's financial viability, tells you everything you need to know about the community of 'analysts' (I'll try not to laugh) and ergo why the stock is trading in a world all of its own.
It won't forever though....
Amazon's Smoke And Mirrors Are Fading [View article]
Those sorts of agreements are always fine, until........ until....... just ONE needs to sell.
Once they do, the stock price goes down (presumably - although it may only be slightly), but critically the 'power' of the remaining holders is diluted.
Moreover, several other holders will be jolted into thinking "well, if one's gone now, who's going next, and should it be me?".
It is just a normal 'confidence game' but played with fewer players and supposedly within an impregnable agreement.
I don't know what the catalyst will be, but once a long-term institutional holder starts selling it will be the beginning of the end.
Interesting thing is what Bezos will do with his holding.... I mean he sells 200,000 shares like the other day, gets $300m for it - nice work if you can get it - but he'll surely want to dramatically increase his liquidations long before its really down the gurgler. And doing that will only reinforce the picture of the sinking ship.
The bottom line is that 'cartels' are only workable as long as every single member of it remains in it, and that in turn demands that all of them have similar circumstances and no-one of them 'suddenly' has to do something different to the others for some reason or other.
One final thing.... the more AMZN goes up, the greater the chance that one (or more) of the institutional holders will be getting itchy fingers (as there is more and more capital gain to be realised).
Actually, no, the final thing is the rhetorical question will be just how great those holders of AMZN ten year notes paying a princely 2.50% per annum will feel once all this starts to unravel....
Compliments of the season to all.
The Truth About Amazon's Margins [View article]
Instead, the article points out that AMZN is unfairly criticised for low margins - and then goes on to succintly and brilliant make a very clear point of......... the very low margins that AMZN makes....
...0.7%
... and in a declining trend.
I think the author has made what we might term - an 'anti-point'.
A Goldman Bet That May Sink The Ship [View article]
Calculating A Proper Valuation For Silver Wheaton [View article]
Can only assume the stock ticker stands for Smoke Less Weed.
Possible Collapse Of Eurozone Creates Buying Opportunity Of A Lifetime In Financial Stocks [View article]
Google Might Have Decided To Put Amazon.com Out Of Business [View article]
Think airlines....
Herbalife's Value Chain - Can You Spot The Loser? [View article]
And then, won't 'potential' new distributors start to realise that outside of their own immediate group of friends and family they have absolutely no exclusivity over the domain?
That's the pure reason why Herbalife totally outlaw any advertising on their 'clubs' - to keep potential new distributors unaware that turf is already well trodden.
I mean, a RETAIL outfit that doesn't want to have 'free advertising' on its 'shops'?? a PRODUCT that the company would rather 'keep quiet'??
Come on, that's the most ludicrous proposition I've heard in a very long time.
Google Might Have Decided To Put Amazon.com Out Of Business [View article]
Clearly if the stock got momentum to the downside you'd possibly want to scale back from, say, $230/240 and bank a bit of profit.
My other 10 cents worth is that I don't think it's worth shorting AMZN until the general market starts falling. It essentially is the pin-up of 'fundamentals don't matter'.... so it's own particular story will not matter to the market until the market is ready once again to start taking things seriously.
All of which means I'd probably aim to create a short over the next 3-9 mths.... perhaps putting on a third of my position just before next earnings, and then progressively adding to it after that.
Chronically Criminal: Shielding The Public From Medical Marijuana [View article]
If that's the case I suggest you getting your buying boots on.... use it to your advantage.
Amazon's Jeff Bezos: Did He Really Deserve To Be Fortune's Business Person Of 2012? [View article]
a) he got Time Man of the Year in 1999 and shares fell 65% over the following year and...
b) he was awarded an honorary degree in April 2008 and shares fell 45% over the following six months...
Amazon And The Issue Of Debt [View article]
Like so many other corporates they can probably scarcely believe how bond "investors" are willing to accept laughably low rates of return. Yes, it's because the Fed has driven the yield curve down to artificially ludicrous levels, but ultimately no-one is holding a gun to anyone's head and MAKING someone go and buy a 4% bond just because the equivalent Treasury yields 2%.
Ultimately if I was a corporate and could be raising money for super-long periods of time at super-low rates I'd be doing it all day long. Why wouldn't I?
I can barely believe some of the bonds I see listed now... 30 year corporate bonds with 4 handles! Good lord, you think you can see 30 years into the future?!?
Workday: An Overvalued Stock Ready To Drop [View article]
Now there's three words I didn't think I'd ever see in the same sentence!