bailinnumberguy's Comments bailinnumberguy's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/1037432/comments Estimate cuts from Pac Crest's Andy Hargreaves are helping Apple (AAPL -2%) underperform. Citing weak demand for the 9.7" iPad - he thinks this is likely "a sustained trend" as demand shifts to smaller/cheaper tablets - and a demand pause ahead of a refresh, Hargreaves is cutting his FQ3 (June quarter) iPad forecast to 15M units from 18.5M. He also thinks "the high end of the smartphone market is quickly becoming saturated," and has lowered FQ2 and FQ4 revenue/EPS estimates further below consensus. Hargreaves cut Apple to Sector Perform on Jan. 16, when shares were at $503. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/912801?source=feed#comment-16922121 16922121 Thu, 28 Mar 2013 06:42:43 -0400 Estimate cuts from Pac Crest's Andy Hargreaves are helping Apple (AAPL -2%) underperform. Citing weak demand for the 9.7" iPad - he thinks this is likely "a sustained trend" as demand shifts to smaller/cheaper tablets - and a demand pause ahead of a refresh, Hargreaves is cutting his FQ3 (June quarter) iPad forecast to 15M units from 18.5M. He also thinks "the high end of the smartphone market is quickly becoming saturated," and has lowered FQ2 and FQ4 revenue/EPS estimates further below consensus. Hargreaves cut Apple to Sector Perform on Jan. 16, when shares were at $503. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/912801?source=feed#comment-16919471 16919471 Thu, 28 Mar 2013 03:55:48 -0400 Apple - Hold On Tight And Don't Play Wall Street's Game http://seekingalpha.com/article/1282491/comments?source=feed#comment-16461951 16461951 Mon, 18 Mar 2013 17:48:12 -0400 Apple - Hold On Tight And Don't Play Wall Street's Game http://seekingalpha.com/article/1282491/comments?source=feed#comment-16443121 16443121
With all due respect you probably also believe in the Easter Bunny. From Thanksgiving 2011 to September 21, 2012 Apple's share price nearly doubled. From September 21, 2012 to the present Apple's share price has given back most of what it gained in the preceding period. Throughout these periods Apple has sold about what was expected in its major product lines and competition has, as had been anticipated, gotten stronger. Where in this scenario are you finding market efficiency?]]> Mon, 18 Mar 2013 12:13:44 -0400
With all due respect you probably also believe in the Easter Bunny. From Thanksgiving 2011 to September 21, 2012 Apple's share price nearly doubled. From September 21, 2012 to the present Apple's share price has given back most of what it gained in the preceding period. Throughout these periods Apple has sold about what was expected in its major product lines and competition has, as had been anticipated, gotten stronger. Where in this scenario are you finding market efficiency?]]> The Non-Decline And Fall Of Apple http://seekingalpha.com/article/1269941/comments?source=feed#comment-16300191 16300191
It takes an awful lot of impetus to push a company the size of Apple that far up and back down again. Anyone paying attention to the sudden change in sentiment about Apple, if he was a suspicious sort, might conclude that there was a concerted effort to push the price up and then drag it down again. Of course I could be wrong.]]> Thu, 14 Mar 2013 18:21:45 -0400
It takes an awful lot of impetus to push a company the size of Apple that far up and back down again. Anyone paying attention to the sudden change in sentiment about Apple, if he was a suspicious sort, might conclude that there was a concerted effort to push the price up and then drag it down again. Of course I could be wrong.]]> Apple: Wall Street's Ignorance At Large Again http://seekingalpha.com/article/1265391/comments?source=feed#comment-16196311 16196311 Tue, 12 Mar 2013 16:30:25 -0400 Why You Should Buy Apple Now http://seekingalpha.com/article/1261501/comments?source=feed#comment-16118581 16118581 Mon, 11 Mar 2013 05:44:44 -0400 Why You Should Buy Apple Now http://seekingalpha.com/article/1261501/comments?source=feed#comment-16118571 16118571 Mon, 11 Mar 2013 05:44:14 -0400 Why Apple Should Follow IBM's Successful Turnaround Story http://seekingalpha.com/article/1259981/comments?source=feed#comment-16075731 16075731 Sat, 09 Mar 2013 13:03:40 -0500 Apple Can Recapture Old Magic By Looking To The East http://seekingalpha.com/article/1258361/comments?source=feed#comment-16024291 16024291 Fri, 08 Mar 2013 08:20:08 -0500 Apple: Learn From Andy Zaky's Mistake http://seekingalpha.com/article/1254871/comments?source=feed#comment-16002411 16002411
I was in an Apple Store yesterday. As a reformed Apple bull, it was depressing. Gone were the usual crowds, just a hand-full of customers being trained and wandering around. Maybe it was an isolated event, but it's been a long time since I've seen an Apple Store so desolate.]]> Thu, 07 Mar 2013 17:02:58 -0500
I was in an Apple Store yesterday. As a reformed Apple bull, it was depressing. Gone were the usual crowds, just a hand-full of customers being trained and wandering around. Maybe it was an isolated event, but it's been a long time since I've seen an Apple Store so desolate.]]> Buffett Has The Solution For Apple http://seekingalpha.com/article/1246761/comments?source=feed#comment-15852531 15852531 Tue, 05 Mar 2013 09:03:57 -0500 Apple: Buy The Steak - Hold For The Coming Sizzles! http://seekingalpha.com/article/1233681/comments?source=feed#comment-15722231 15722231
There's this perception that Apple is this great innovative company. I'd argue that they've never been that. They've taken existing technology and greatly improved/perfected it. The technology for what became the iPod was at Sony long before Steve Jobs saw the potential in it and brought it to Apple. PDAs existed long before the iPhone. The Palm Pilot was kind of a very primitive iPhone w/o the phone and was out a decade before the iPhone. The iPhone greatly improved on the Blackberry and offered a touch screen. The iPad is basically a very big screened iPhone w/o the phone. Apple perfected the portable music player, combined it w/ a Smartphone and that might well be where the story ends. ]]> Sat, 02 Mar 2013 03:48:53 -0500
There's this perception that Apple is this great innovative company. I'd argue that they've never been that. They've taken existing technology and greatly improved/perfected it. The technology for what became the iPod was at Sony long before Steve Jobs saw the potential in it and brought it to Apple. PDAs existed long before the iPhone. The Palm Pilot was kind of a very primitive iPhone w/o the phone and was out a decade before the iPhone. The iPhone greatly improved on the Blackberry and offered a touch screen. The iPad is basically a very big screened iPhone w/o the phone. Apple perfected the portable music player, combined it w/ a Smartphone and that might well be where the story ends. ]]> Billionaire Halvorsen Dumped Apple In Favor Of This Tech Company http://seekingalpha.com/article/1238061/comments?source=feed#comment-15722161 15722161
Sometimes we forget that the majority of trading (75% or more) is done w/ machines that are programmed to trade on momentum. The run-up and sell-off have undoubtedly been heavily influenced by HFT. I'm going to stick w/ Apple and start re-loading on fundamentals at these levels. The company needs some strong positive catalysts, but at some point you just have to say that the price is too low to be rational.

If you back out the cash, the TRAILING P/E will be under 6 by the end of the quarter (assuming the share price doesn't change). That's an absurd implied yield. You have to assume that Apple's margins are going to completely collapse and that it'll be losing customers in large bunches to justify that kind of multiple. The stock's been stuck in a negative feedback loop for a while, but that won't last forever.

The street doesn't seem to be showing much love toTim Cook. Amazon says its investing in the future and the stock price goes up, even though the company loses money. Apple's planning for the long term while making huge profits and the share price heads due south. Crazy. Maybe the problem is the messenger.]]> Sat, 02 Mar 2013 03:44:56 -0500
Sometimes we forget that the majority of trading (75% or more) is done w/ machines that are programmed to trade on momentum. The run-up and sell-off have undoubtedly been heavily influenced by HFT. I'm going to stick w/ Apple and start re-loading on fundamentals at these levels. The company needs some strong positive catalysts, but at some point you just have to say that the price is too low to be rational.

If you back out the cash, the TRAILING P/E will be under 6 by the end of the quarter (assuming the share price doesn't change). That's an absurd implied yield. You have to assume that Apple's margins are going to completely collapse and that it'll be losing customers in large bunches to justify that kind of multiple. The stock's been stuck in a negative feedback loop for a while, but that won't last forever.

The street doesn't seem to be showing much love toTim Cook. Amazon says its investing in the future and the stock price goes up, even though the company loses money. Apple's planning for the long term while making huge profits and the share price heads due south. Crazy. Maybe the problem is the messenger.]]> Apple Bears Are Delusional http://seekingalpha.com/article/1232891/comments?source=feed#comment-15673281 15673281 Fri, 01 Mar 2013 05:21:53 -0500 Apple Bears Are Delusional http://seekingalpha.com/article/1232891/comments?source=feed#comment-15647891 15647891 Thu, 28 Feb 2013 14:42:00 -0500 More on Apple's (AAPL -1.3%) shareholder meeting: With rumors of iWatches and new set-tops swirling around, Tim Cook hints at new products. "Obviously we're looking at new categories -- we don't talk about them, but we're looking at them." Cook on Android's share gains: "There's a button or two we could press to make the most [devices] .... That would not be good for Apple." He boasts over half of Chinese/Brazilian iPad buyers are new Apple customers, and still thinks David Einhorn's suit is "silly." No word of a dividend or buyback hike. (live blog) http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/855721?source=feed#comment-15619621 15619621 Thu, 28 Feb 2013 07:07:25 -0500 Apple: Why Not All Stock Splits Are Created Equal http://seekingalpha.com/article/1228131/comments?source=feed#comment-15566591 15566591 Wed, 27 Feb 2013 07:56:37 -0500 "High above the Alps my Gnome is hearing a rumor that Apple will announce a stock split at tomorrow's shareholder meeting," tweets Doug Kass. The rumor has led Apple (AAPL +1%) shares to spike higher. Update (2:24 PM): Kass is using the post-rumor spike to sell part of his trading position in Apple. http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/852491?source=feed#comment-15542891 15542891 Tue, 26 Feb 2013 16:23:16 -0500 Google Looks Like A Pre-Surge Apple With Less Risk http://seekingalpha.com/article/1223181/comments?source=feed#comment-15518921 15518921 Tue, 26 Feb 2013 09:09:48 -0500 Apple: When Negatives Can Be Positives http://seekingalpha.com/article/1221241/comments?source=feed#comment-15512221 15512221 Tue, 26 Feb 2013 06:07:35 -0500 Time For Apple To Waddle And Quack http://seekingalpha.com/article/1210981/comments?source=feed#comment-15355631 15355631 Fri, 22 Feb 2013 06:08:27 -0500 Apple: Tim Cook Isn't The Problem http://seekingalpha.com/article/1187061/comments?source=feed#comment-15066801 15066801 Fri, 15 Feb 2013 18:29:07 -0500 Apple - Why We Are Changing Our Stance From Bearish To Bullish http://seekingalpha.com/article/1187721/comments?source=feed#comment-15066531 15066531 Fri, 15 Feb 2013 18:25:24 -0500 Apple: Tim Cook Isn't The Problem http://seekingalpha.com/article/1187061/comments?source=feed#comment-15030411 15030411 Fri, 15 Feb 2013 08:37:38 -0500 What Will Apple Do With That Cash? http://seekingalpha.com/article/1183341/comments?source=feed#comment-15016821 15016821 Thu, 14 Feb 2013 21:01:33 -0500 Apple (AAPL) has slashed prices for three 13" MacBook models. The price of the 13" retina MacBook Pro with 128GB SSD has been cut by $200 to $1,499, and the 256GB model by $300 to $1,699. Meanwhile, the 13" MacBook Air with 256GB SSD has been cut by $100 to $1,399. Apple's 15" retina MacBook Pro models remain priced at $2,199 and $2,799, but both have been given faster Intel Core i7 CPUs, and the costlier model now sports twice as much RAM. The moves follow a quarter where Mac shipments fell 22% Y/Y, and revenue 16%. (PR) http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/824201?source=feed#comment-14948891 14948891 Wed, 13 Feb 2013 15:40:36 -0500 David Einhorn's preferred stock proposal is "creative," Tim Cook states at a Goldman conference. But he calls Einhorn's opposition to Prop. 2 a "silly sideshow," and insists the measure is meant to empower shareholders. He claims Apple's (AAPL -1.2%) management/board are in "very active discussions" about returning additional cash, but remains tight-lipped about details. Apple is spiking lower after temporarily doing the opposite. (live blog) (webcast) (previous) http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/820991?source=feed#comment-14921301 14921301 Wed, 13 Feb 2013 04:14:43 -0500 Apple: The $200 Billion Question http://seekingalpha.com/article/1171251/comments?source=feed#comment-14869291 14869291
You're welcome.]]> Mon, 11 Feb 2013 22:49:12 -0500
You're welcome.]]> Evaluating David Einhorn's Proposal To Apple http://seekingalpha.com/article/1169641/comments?source=feed#comment-14827471 14827471 Sun, 10 Feb 2013 22:16:03 -0500