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bailinnumberguy

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  • Apple Lays The Runway To $150 [View article]
    Looks like the NASDAQ is going to open very strong tomorrow. It's an Apple world and we're just part of it.
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:59 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Lays The Runway To $150 [View article]
    A Finance professor once told me that waiting for a pullback to get in on, or re-buy a stock is one of the silliest things you can do. (1) If you believe in the stock why wait until later to buy? You'd expect it to blow past its current level anyway and you're likely to be sitting on the sideline as it moves up. (2) Waiting for a pullback implies that you can predict and time the market, which no one can do. Even the greatest investors admit that they can't. (3) If you're waiting for a pullback you think it's moving down. Why don't you short it if you're so sure it's going down? You're not sure it's going down, are you?
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:42 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Lays The Runway To $150 [View article]
    Those sharp moves up that you'll see in spurts tomorrow are the shorts jumping overboard. If you're short with all the momentum behind the stock you're nuts.
    Jan 27, 2015. 11:17 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Lays The Runway To $150 [View article]
    I was more than a little skeptical that AAPL could ever get near a $1T cap. Of course it's part of the broader market and is already held by everyone, but I think it has such incredible fundamentals that it's just a matter of time before it becomes the first company to a trillion. They're just getting rolling in China. Unbelievable quarter. $180B in cash. Huge beat on the top and bottom line. Anyone waiting for a pullback, bad strategy. You may get it, but you may have to wait a while.
    Jan 27, 2015. 11:05 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    Michael Blair is purely click-bait. He's probably long AAPL.
    Jan 27, 2015. 05:08 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    Apple has enough cash to buy Greece.
    Jan 27, 2015. 05:03 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    Who cares about the AH? Professionals aren't sitting at their computers buying in the volatile after hours. Check again in 2 weeks.
    Jan 27, 2015. 04:56 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    Where's that guy who just wrote that Microsoft was the better buy than Apple?
    Jan 27, 2015. 04:53 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Update: A $2 Billion Currency Hit? [View article]
    Earnings off the map. 74 millions iPhones. EPS over $3. Currency/shmurrency.
    Jan 27, 2015. 04:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Whisper Number Showing Confidence [View article]
    74.5 million iPhone. $3.06. Revenue awesome. It's a MONSTER!
    Jan 27, 2015. 04:31 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Update: A $2 Billion Currency Hit? [View article]
    If you look at it from the perspective that currency losses are unrealized until the local currency is repatriated (although yes, it's true that these book losses have to be reported), any downward pressure on share prices because of the Fx issues creates potential buying opportunities. If you're in AAPL for the long term w/ a view longer than the next 5 days, you might be able to actually benefit from the strong dollar. Eventually stable currencies correct against one another from the laws of supply and demand.

    I'll take Apple's incredible fundamentals and let the currencies find an equilibrium.
    Jan 27, 2015. 12:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Update: A $2 Billion Currency Hit? [View article]
    There is another side to the coin. While a strong dollar has a negative effect on the revenue side, it has a positive effect on the payment to offshore suppliers and other vendors.
    Jan 27, 2015. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Couldn't Apple Double Its Dividend? [View article]
    'Earnings can be manipulated by accounting rules and dividends aren't paid out of earnings. They're paid out of cash.'

    Every first semester accounting student knows that dividends are paid out of retained earnings. The very definition of ending retained earnings is beginning retained earnings - dividends. Not to be a bookkeeper, but a dividend declared results in the accounting entry: Dr. Retained Earning and Cr. Dividends Payable. The actual payout is Dr. Dividends Payable and Cr. Cash.
    Jan 26, 2015. 09:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: iPhone 6 Plus A Star, ASP To Rise [View article]
    There's so much volatility in the AH from earnings that it's like playing either black or red on a roulette wheel. There have times when AAPL has posted what looks like a tremendous quarter and the share price dumps by 4 or 5% in the AH. I've learned from experience to not try to project what'll happen to the share price in the AH and don't do anything crazy like ramping up my position just for the announcement. Any factor (margins, guidance, top line, bottom line, iPad sales, etc etc) can cause a surprising move in the wrong direction and the move feeds on itself w/ stops triggered.
    Jan 26, 2015. 04:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: iPhone 6 Plus A Star, ASP To Rise [View article]
    Apple now has a decision to make with the iPad mini line. The iPhone 6 Plus is cannibalizing many of the sales of the smaller iPads. It's a great problem to have when consumers are struggling over which of your products to own. Many Apple afficionados such as myself own redundant products just because, but for the average buyer there's no reason to have an iPad Mini and an iPhone 6 Plus. Same with the iPod, which now comes bundled with every other Apple product. I never worry about declining iPod or iPad sales, because I know that they're actually just reflected in greater iPhone or MAC sales.

    On a related note, tomorrow's earnings report is going to blow the doors off of anything that's come before.
    Jan 26, 2015. 12:04 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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