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bailinnumberguy

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  • Apple - Why We Are Changing Our Stance From Bearish To Bullish [View article]
    A certain way to lose money (or underperform) is to yo-yo between bullish and bearish positions in the same company too often. You can get away with it sometimes, but my experience tells me if you try to predict which way the stock will move in the nearish term you won't do as well as you otherwise would if you ignored the short term movements and invest purely on the company's fundamentals. Apple's fundamentals have only strengthened in the last year. The slide from $705 was off of a huge speculative run that occurred for about 8 months of 2012. If you look at Apple's long term chart it still looks pretty good.
    Feb 15 06:25 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Tim Cook Isn't The Problem [View article]
    This piece is mostly on point. Tim Cook's biggest problem is that he isn't Steve Jobs. Following a legend is an impossible, no win situation. If Apple does well it's because of Steve Jobs vision. If it does poorly it's because Jobs is no longer around. Cook has done about as well as can be expected under the circumstances.
    Feb 15 08:37 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will Apple Do With That Cash? [View article]
    Why so many people conveniently ignore Apple's cash as being mostly overseas has always escaped me. Everyone acts as if Apple just has $140B or so sitting around in a safe in Cupertino. It seems that it's a lose/lose/lose for the companies w/ large cash holdings overseas, investors and the U.S. Government. If incentives can be offered to repatriate the cash w/ more favorable rates, tax credits for putting that cash to work to create jobs and the like, everyone wins.
    Feb 14 09:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) has slashed prices for three 13" MacBook models. The price of the 13" retina MacBook Pro with 128GB SSD has been cut by $200 to $1,499, and the 256GB model by $300 to $1,699. Meanwhile, the 13" MacBook Air with 256GB SSD has been cut by $100 to $1,399. Apple's 15" retina MacBook Pro models remain priced at $2,199 and $2,799, but both have been given faster Intel Core i7 CPUs, and the costlier model now sports twice as much RAM. The moves follow a quarter where Mac shipments fell 22% Y/Y, and revenue 16%. (PR[View news story]
    The 13" MacBook retina has a market niche issue. Most people wanting a retina screen are going for the larger 15" model. If it's portability you're after, you aren't going to fork over the extra cash when you could satisfy your needs w/ a MacBook Air, the cheaper non-Retina model or even an iPad.
    Feb 13 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Einhorn's preferred stock proposal is "creative," Tim Cook states at a Goldman conference. But he calls Einhorn's opposition to Prop. 2 a "silly sideshow," and insists the measure is meant to empower shareholders. He claims Apple's (AAPL -1.2%) management/board are in "very active discussions" about returning additional cash, but remains tight-lipped about details. Apple is spiking lower after temporarily doing the opposite. (live blog) (webcast) (previous[View news story]
    Tim Cook isn't the problem. The problem is the knee-jerk reaction of investors. One activist investor makes a suggestion to Apple on capital allocation strategy and backs it w/ a crack-pot lawsuit and the market reacts favorably as if it's actually going to happen. Cook makes a speech that isn't much different than anything else Apple has said for oh, the last decade or so, and the market reacts as if something bad has happened. Would investors be happier if Apple's management changed their mind every time someone on the outside makes a suggestion as to what to do?
    Feb 13 04:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The $200 Billion Question [View article]
    I hope I'm wrong, but did I read in this article that the $200B that was lost in market cap represents actual cash changing hands between parties? Yikes. Market cap is, by definition, the prevailing share price * number of shares outstanding. It has nothing to do w/ an actual transfer of assets. Assume for the sake of argument that Apple comes out w/ a device tomorrow which will extend everyone's life by 10 years. Assume also that there's such overwhelming demand that investors would happily pay $1000 per share. Assume that only 1% of shareholders are offering their shares for sale. Market cap more than doubles while the cash that changes hands is $1000 * number of shares outstanding * 1 PERCENT.

    You're welcome.
    Feb 11 10:49 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evaluating David Einhorn's Proposal To Apple [View article]
    Essentially what Einhorn is advocating is increasing the dividend payout to shareholders by 4% up to a maximum of full market cap. Somehow this is to increase shareholder value by $32 per $50B up to the level of market cap. Not sure what kind of modeling was done by his people, but it'll undoubtedly drive the stock value up until the shareholder meeting at the end of the month.
    Feb 10 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Einhorn and Apple (AAPL): The company needs to use the same level of creativity with its balance sheet as it does to produce products, writes Einhorn. Every $50B of perpetual preferred stock distributed would unlock about $32/share of value, he says, and Apple has the capacity to distribute several hundred billion. "Greenlight is alarmed that Apple is attempting to eliminate preferred stock from its corporate charter." Shares  +0.7% premarket. [View news story]
    It's funny how markets react to non-events. Basically 2 things happened today. (1) Einhorn made public a proposal to Apple to offer preferred shares and w/ some fuzzy math, each $50 billion of preferred issuance will somehow be worth $32 in additional shareholder value. (2) Apple said that they would evaluate Mr. Einhorn's proposal. Translation: We have no intention of doing what this guy says, but we have to say something.

    Naturally investors go diving for the buy button, although nothing that Einhorn proposed will change whatever Apple had planned to do anyway. He did coax an admission by Apple that discussions are taking place.
    Feb 8 02:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Einhorn and Apple (AAPL): The company needs to use the same level of creativity with its balance sheet as it does to produce products, writes Einhorn. Every $50B of perpetual preferred stock distributed would unlock about $32/share of value, he says, and Apple has the capacity to distribute several hundred billion. "Greenlight is alarmed that Apple is attempting to eliminate preferred stock from its corporate charter." Shares  +0.7% premarket. [View news story]
    Einhorn's on point that Apple's management of its balance sheet is almost comically bad and that they've done almost nothing to unleash the enormous potential stored in their huge cash position. His fund holds about a million shares of Apple (which is trivial compared w/ some of the heavy hitter funds in the stock), so unless he's able to rally the Fidelities and the Vanguards and other huge stakeholders , he'll get nothing done except get occasional share price pops every time he flaps his gums on CNBC.
    Feb 7 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Premium Company, Dirt-Cheap Stock [View article]
    Apple is the most analyzed, traded and owned stock in the world. There is no such thing as a stock being 'dirt cheap' or expensive. A stock price is a constantly moving equilibrium price between buyers and sellers. Whether anyone thinks a stock is overvalued, undervalued or just right is irrelevant. All that matters is whether more buyers or sellers agree w/ you. People were making the same argument that Apple was cheap all the way up to $700 and what happened?
    Feb 7 02:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple's Threat Real In The Living Room? [View article]
    The article jumped the shark into an impossible fantasy world when it referenced the potential that an Apple TV could sell 156 million units in a year. Unless the TVs are about 14 inches and weigh 2 pounds (which no one would want), it's likely not logistically possible to assemble, distribute and deliver anywhere close to that volume of TVs in a 12 month time frame.
    Feb 5 06:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: When Will This Bubble Burst? [View article]
    According to some, the world is 6000 years old. If you bought all of Amazon's outstanding stock and made the company private, it would take more than half of the time that the universe has been in existence to double the book value of your shares.
    Feb 5 04:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: When Will This Bubble Burst? [View article]
    Amazon makes up for the fact that they don't make any money w/ volume.
    Feb 5 04:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem With Apple Is Apple [View article]
    How about if we all agree to not use the term 'law of large numbers' and replace it w/ the 'law of competition' which states that effective competition in a market tends to reduce the profits that any one member in that market is able to achieve?
    Feb 5 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Ousts Samsung As No.1 Mobile Maker In U.S. In Q4 2012, Taking Record 34% Market Share [View article]
    One analyst predicts that Apple is ripe for a pop and some investors start buying the stock this afternoon just on that one opinion. No wonder so many people lose money in the market. It's the blind leading the blind.
    Feb 5 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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