Apple is on the steep slope of its cost curve having refreshed its bread-and-butter products by year end. They sold 87.5 million units vs. 73 million units a year ago with 1 fewer week in which to sell. That addition in units sold equals an expanded customer base.
Conclusion: Margins shrunk, in part, because full economies of scale have not been reached in the unit costs of their new products. They dramatically increased sell-through units and added new customers while keeping their bottom line constant.
You can take the facts and construct a positive or negative story to suit your own personal tastes. No one talks about the customers added, just the margin compression as the former doesn't fit well into the narrative.
How Apple Gave Wall Street The Middle Finger [View article]
I don't see how the author's conclusion is supported by the facts in this instance. Sounds more like wishful thinking than good deductive reasoning.
What is clear is that Apple's management won't commit to an EPS number. From that you should start asking questions. Why do they not want to commit to an EPS number and instead isolate the components that make up earnings? The first thing everyone looks at is EPS.
Price to Book Value has little to no relevance in this instance.
Assume for the sake of argument the P to BV remains constant and Apple starts paying out special dividends:
Apple could declare a special dividend tomorrow for half of its net book value and the value of the company drops by half? a special dividend of 75% of value and the value drops by 3/4ths? The absurd scenario where it declares all of its net book value except for $1 and Apple is worth $4?
Lessons From Microsoft: An Outlook On Apple [View article]
There really isn't anything wrong with Apple as a company. The problem is that for it to sustain its extraordinary valuation it had/has to continually hit it out of the park and smother its competition and be perceived as a company that will continue to do just that for years to come. Does anyone look at Tim Cook as that guy capable of continually moving the needle and keeping the company several steps ahead of the competition?
Here's something to consider. Hopefully it won't cause indigestion or too much negative reply.
AAPL's share price is only about $20 higher than it was just before the monster Christmas quarter report in January 2012. Share prices have fallen from a peak of about $705 right at the time of release of the iPhone5 and now are hovering around $440. That is a massive loss of shareholder wealth in a short period of time. How can you sell 48 million iPhones, 22 million iPads and the share price sinks like a stone? Clearly the big institutions are unloading shares of stock as there doesn't seem to be much support at any price. It's not just the machines and hedge funds. The big traditional funds can easily create support and overwhelm the shorts. Where have they gone?
IMO Tim Cook's job should be on the line. What has he achieved? You can't just keep saying that its sales are 'mind-blowing'; that its subscriber base is 'jaw-dropping'; it's new products are 'really cool' and the retina display is the greatest invention since sliced bread. Cook sounds to me like an MBA trying to pretend that he's a techie. He even tries to dress like Steve. I don't think the Street is buying the routine any longer. I think that Apple rode on the coattails of what Jobs created right up to the iPhone 5 release. It's now Cook's company. He needs a home run to stop the bleeding pretty soon or he has to go.
Why Apple Is Still A Buy Even Though Amazon And Google Have Better Products [View article]
As a recently former Apple bull, I don't know how anyone can make a plausible argument that the stock is a buy when the company just posted an incredible quarter, one of the greatest in history, and the stock price dropped like a large boulder. They sold 48 million iPhones, 22 million iPads, a total of about 90 million iDevices in the quarter and that wasn't good enough. For whatever reason, the name has lost support on The Street. Does it make sense? I can't make sense of it, but I at least acknowledge it. Many posters here seem to not want to see what reality is. I hope I'm proven wrong as I've been an Apple shareholder for about a decade and just recently decided to get out. I may come back in some day, but certainly not in the current trading environment.
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
Some will defend AAPL no matter what. I was one of those defenders up until this week. I simply can't justify continuing to defend the stock after the company posts its most profitable quarter in history, and one of the most profitable quarters any company has had in history, and the share price drops like a rock. People talk about Apple's guidance as being a cause. The guidance looks to me like about the typical conservative guidance that the company always gives, in spite of how they try to spin using a range rather than a single point estimate.
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
I've been thinking about this all morning and decided to bail on Apple completely. I've been an Apple bull for years so this isn't an easy decision. It's distressing to read some of the posters above still hoping for an Apple TV or a China Mobile deal. Apple just reported one of the most profitable quarters in history and the stock price went STRAIGHT DOWN. Clearly the big institutional investors are abandoning Apple. I might be wrong, but this stock is clearly in trouble. Who really wants to wait around months and years for an Apple TV which might be underwhelming or a China Mobile deal which might come sometime in the next 1 to 5 years?
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
I started unraveling my AAPL positions when it went below the 200-day in the high 500s and couldn't recover. I've been dabbling ever since w/ small purchases and not much success.
I think you have to be a realist w/ any stock that you hold, otherwise you'll ultimately get killed. The reality seems to be that the big institutions have not stepped up to the plate to defend the share price. That tells me that some of the big institutions are lessening their positions in AAPL and it's not just the hedge funds/machines that are driving the price down.
All the nonsense that we were fed about capital gains selling appears to have been a bunch of baloney.
Apple's bread-and-butter is the iPhone. Most of the company's value is in that device. The fact there are so many people willing to buy the iPhone4 and 4S is a reminder that the iPhone5 wasn't a game changer. When the stock ran up to $700+, that was speculative on the iPhone5 being a killer device that everyone on earth would have to have. Didn't happen.
Apple needs to deliver a game changer to boost its share price. You can't just continue to have rumors about an Apple TV or a China Mobile deal. We've been hearing about these for years already. At some point you have to wonder what the problem is in bringing these to market.
With Apple, What A Difference A Week Makes [View article]
All of this hand wringing over what's wrong w/ Apple. Nothing is wrong w/ the company. The company profits over $150 million a day. They sold about 90 million devices in the quarter.
The problem for investors is as clear as day: there simply aren't enough incremental new investors to push the share price up. For the most part, everyone who's going to own the stock has already purchased shares. Apple as a growth story is so well known that you'd have to be living on another planet to not have heard about it.
Apple (AAPL): FQ1 EPS of $13.81 beats by $0.37. Revenue of $54.51B (+18% Y/Y) misses by $220M. 47.8M iPhones, 22.9M iPads, 4.1M Macs, 12.7M iPods. Expects FQ2 revenue of $41B-$43B, below $45.6B consensus. Shares -4.3% AH. (PR) [View news story]
Looking for any fundamental reason for the stock to tank in the after hours is probably a waste of time. An earnings beat, a small miss on revenues, iPhone sales about where expected, iPad sales about where expected. Cash continuing to grow. There's no way that information was absorbed in the 30 seconds it took for the price to head due south with the conclusion that it was a bad report
Some group of investors has probably been driving down this thing down for 3 months and continued in the after hours. If I'd seen the numbers and wasn't looking at what the share price was doing, I'd assume that AAPL would stay kind of flat.
This pullback is being orchestrated and if you don't think so, buyer beware.
Apple (AAPL): FQ1 EPS of $13.81 beats by $0.37. Revenue of $54.51B (+18% Y/Y) misses by $220M. 47.8M iPhones, 22.9M iPads, 4.1M Macs, 12.7M iPods. Expects FQ2 revenue of $41B-$43B, below $45.6B consensus. Shares -4.3% AH. (PR) [View news story]
Wow, if this isn't a wake up call I don't know what is. The company has an extraordinary quarter and continues to pad its balance sheet. It sells 90 million devices, including 48 M iPhones and 22 M iPads. It's selling off in the AH as if they'd just declared bankruptcy.
Maybe there's something to the law of large numbers but not in the technical sense of reverting to a mean. Once a company achieves a certain value it has to continually hit home runs just to tread water. While its performance has been outstanding, the bar has been set so high that it's impossible to reach it w/ any regularity.
Why Apple's Profits Are At Risk [View article]
Conclusion: Margins shrunk, in part, because full economies of scale have not been reached in the unit costs of their new products. They dramatically increased sell-through units and added new customers while keeping their bottom line constant.
You can take the facts and construct a positive or negative story to suit your own personal tastes. No one talks about the customers added, just the margin compression as the former doesn't fit well into the narrative.
How Apple Gave Wall Street The Middle Finger [View article]
What is clear is that Apple's management won't commit to an EPS number. From that you should start asking questions. Why do they not want to commit to an EPS number and instead isolate the components that make up earnings? The first thing everyone looks at is EPS.
Apple Value Propositions [View article]
Assume for the sake of argument the P to BV remains constant and Apple starts paying out special dividends:
Apple could declare a special dividend tomorrow for half of its net book value and the value of the company drops by half? a special dividend of 75% of value and the value drops by 3/4ths? The absurd scenario where it declares all of its net book value except for $1 and Apple is worth $4?
Doesn't really work.
Lessons From Microsoft: An Outlook On Apple [View article]
Apple's New Pet: The Black Swan [View article]
AAPL's share price is only about $20 higher than it was just before the monster Christmas quarter report in January 2012. Share prices have fallen from a peak of about $705 right at the time of release of the iPhone5 and now are hovering around $440. That is a massive loss of shareholder wealth in a short period of time. How can you sell 48 million iPhones, 22 million iPads and the share price sinks like a stone? Clearly the big institutions are unloading shares of stock as there doesn't seem to be much support at any price. It's not just the machines and hedge funds. The big traditional funds can easily create support and overwhelm the shorts. Where have they gone?
IMO Tim Cook's job should be on the line. What has he achieved? You can't just keep saying that its sales are 'mind-blowing'; that its subscriber base is 'jaw-dropping'; it's new products are 'really cool' and the retina display is the greatest invention since sliced bread. Cook sounds to me like an MBA trying to pretend that he's a techie. He even tries to dress like Steve. I don't think the Street is buying the routine any longer. I think that Apple rode on the coattails of what Jobs created right up to the iPhone 5 release. It's now Cook's company. He needs a home run to stop the bleeding pretty soon or he has to go.
I'd Pay $400 For 'This Apple' [View article]
Why Apple Is Still A Buy Even Though Amazon And Google Have Better Products [View article]
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
I think you have to be a realist w/ any stock that you hold, otherwise you'll ultimately get killed. The reality seems to be that the big institutions have not stepped up to the plate to defend the share price. That tells me that some of the big institutions are lessening their positions in AAPL and it's not just the hedge funds/machines that are driving the price down.
All the nonsense that we were fed about capital gains selling appears to have been a bunch of baloney.
Apple's Growth Story Is Over [View article]
Apple needs to deliver a game changer to boost its share price. You can't just continue to have rumors about an Apple TV or a China Mobile deal. We've been hearing about these for years already. At some point you have to wonder what the problem is in bringing these to market.
With Apple, What A Difference A Week Makes [View article]
The problem for investors is as clear as day: there simply aren't enough incremental new investors to push the share price up. For the most part, everyone who's going to own the stock has already purchased shares. Apple as a growth story is so well known that you'd have to be living on another planet to not have heard about it.
Apple (AAPL): FQ1 EPS of $13.81 beats by $0.37. Revenue of $54.51B (+18% Y/Y) misses by $220M. 47.8M iPhones, 22.9M iPads, 4.1M Macs, 12.7M iPods. Expects FQ2 revenue of $41B-$43B, below $45.6B consensus. Shares -4.3% AH. (PR) [View news story]
Some group of investors has probably been driving down this thing down for 3 months and continued in the after hours. If I'd seen the numbers and wasn't looking at what the share price was doing, I'd assume that AAPL would stay kind of flat.
This pullback is being orchestrated and if you don't think so, buyer beware.
Apple (AAPL): FQ1 EPS of $13.81 beats by $0.37. Revenue of $54.51B (+18% Y/Y) misses by $220M. 47.8M iPhones, 22.9M iPads, 4.1M Macs, 12.7M iPods. Expects FQ2 revenue of $41B-$43B, below $45.6B consensus. Shares -4.3% AH. (PR) [View news story]
Maybe there's something to the law of large numbers but not in the technical sense of reverting to a mean. Once a company achieves a certain value it has to continually hit home runs just to tread water. While its performance has been outstanding, the bar has been set so high that it's impossible to reach it w/ any regularity.
Apple (AAPL): FQ1 EPS of $13.81 beats by $0.37. Revenue of $54.51B (+18% Y/Y) misses by $220M. 47.8M iPhones, 22.9M iPads, 4.1M Macs, 12.7M iPods. Expects FQ2 revenue of $41B-$43B, below $45.6B consensus. Shares -4.3% AH. (PR) [View news story]