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bailinnumberguy

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  • Here We Go Again: No, Apple Will Not Replace Intel [View article]
    One thing is for certain: Apple already knows what its long-term strategy is for processors in lap and desktops and we have no clue.
    Jan 16, 2015. 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple falls towards $107 amid tech selloff, downgrade [View news story]
    It's funny how one analyst's opinion can move the needle on the stock of such a huge company. Gus Lipschitz from Vinny's Security Analysis and Auto Body Shop puts out a cautious note on AAPL stock and everyone dives for the 'Sell' button.

    Mizuho Securities? Abhey Lamba? This guy might be working out of his basement for all we know.
    Jan 15, 2015. 08:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Victim Of Its Own Success? [View article]
    All of the conspiracy theories above are nonsense. AAPL's P/E ratio is pretty close to the S&P average. The company's the most valuable in the world by a wide margin. If anyone's conspired to keep the price down, they've done a lousy job.

    There are maddening days when AAPL drops by 3% or something while the market is relatively quiet. It also moves up outperforming the broad market on many days which no one seems to point out. If you think that there are sinister forces that set prices, why are you bothering to invest in the first place?
    Jan 15, 2015. 01:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Ditching Intel Processors Would Be Disastrous [View article]
    If I had $100 for every Apple 'rumor' that turned out to be true I'd be broke. Apple's secrecy is legendary. What processor they're going to be putting into their laptops and desktops is certainly something that no analyst is going to know about beyond blind speculation.
    Jan 15, 2015. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Larger iPhones May Be A Game Changer [View article]
    The same articles appear more or less over and over again. Everyone knows that Apple dominates the high end Smartphone market, has tremendous customer brand loyalty, a ton of cash socked away and that the iPod, iPhone and iPad all were 'game changers'.

    The question investors have to ask is 'is the stock trading at a fair price'? At current levels it's not far from being the most valuable company in history, which it's achieved previously.

    The iWatch is speculative. Who knows if it'll be a big hit or a disappointment? What happened to the promised Apple TV that we've all been waiting for?

    All of these warm, fuzzy articles that appear about AAPL make us feel good as investors but it's not like AAPL is our own little secret. Investors have already driven the price of the stock to what seems to be a pretty reasonable level.
    Jan 14, 2015. 11:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple up 2.4% following Credit Suisse upgrade [View news story]
    Anyone who bought shares based on one analyst's upgrade is the proverbial fool in the marketplace. The best time to short a stock is right after it's been upgraded, the price makes the obligatory move up and the buyers get exhausted.
    Jan 13, 2015. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: It's An App Story [View article]
    AAPL's having another lousy day of trading. It bounced off 50-day resistance pretty hard. Technically the company is in a bit of trouble for the time-being. Long AAPL, but a realist.
    Jan 12, 2015. 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Becoming The Next IBM? [View article]
    Forget IBM. They missed total domination of the PC market forever when they licensed out the development of their operating system to a little company run by Bill Gates.. They also farmed out their microprocessors to Intel. Their PCs quickly became a commodity w/o any competitive advantage.

    As far as R&D as a % of Total Revenue, unless you delve far more deeply into the numbers than to look at a line on an Income Statement called 'Research and Development' and compare it to Sales you can't come to any meaningful conclusions. The company has armies of designers, architects, engineers none of whom charge their time to R&D. Apple has brilliantly taken technology already in existence and transformed/perfected it. Those activities might not ever get booked to 'R&D' but to Product Design or something. Sony had the technology for what became the iPod. Blackberry created the Smartphone market which the iPhone consumed. Why waste money researching the technology that you need if it already exists?

    If you want a more assuredly reliable metric of a company's effectiveness, look at revenue per employee and net income per employee. A company is ultimately its employees and the most bulletproof way to look at a company's performance is to look at the revenues/income generated per capita.
    Jan 8, 2015. 10:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple +3.3%; App Store revenue rose 50% in 2014 [View news story]
    I'm long AAPL in a big way, but it's always funny how everyone starts celebrating on the good days and has every excuse in the books on the down days. When Apple was moving down it was because of the broader market going down. Apple bounces back up with the market and it's because Apple is such a great company.

    I only bring this up because I've often fallen into the same trap of getting too emotional on the way up and rationalizing on the way down. That's a way to lose money fast.
    Jan 8, 2015. 02:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Bet Is That Microsoft Will Outperform Apple In 2015 [View article]
    Write an article either uber-bullish or bearish on AAPL. Bring in the clicks. Rinse. Repeat.
    Jan 7, 2015. 04:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Holiday 2014: A Bigger Castle And A Deeper Moat [View article]
    Shhhh. Don't tell anyone, but over the last 5 years the powerhouse BioTechs have outperformed even mighty AAPL.
    Jan 7, 2015. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Apple set to ship Watch in March, prepping new MacBook Air [View news story]
    The brick-and-mortar Apple stores and the fanfare around any new product release (iWatch upcoming) were strokes of genius. Let's face it, many of us lead rather hum-drum lives a lot of the time. A new product release, going to your local Apple store fills a need for excitement and a psychological need to be part of a big event.

    Heck, I stood in line for a few hours and bought a new iPad a few years ago because I had no other plans that evening (it was released at midnight) and was bored.
    Jan 7, 2015. 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Investors Should Think Twice About 2015 [View article]
    What's AAPL worth? Whatever the market says it is at any point in time. Price targets are a waste of time. What does a price target even mean? The price is forever changing. Once a target is reached does the stock stop trading? Predicting where Apple will be tomorrow, next week, next month or next year implies that you know something that no one else does or that you have superior knowledge to the market in general.

    The best investors know that they can't predict the market and generally trade against the flawed trading patterns of the suckers in the marketplace. If everyone had perfect information, there wouldn't be a stock market. There would be no volatility in price and no opportunity to make money.
    Jan 6, 2015. 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: What Drives Upside From Here? [View article]
    The majority of Apple shares are held by institutions, hedge funds and Apple itself. Retail investors are a blip on the screen. When the professionals move away from a stock you generally should run, not walk, to get out yourself. People who do this for a living aren't moving away from a stock because they have an aversion to making money.

    A stock that is popular with retail investors and unpopular w/ institutions is going one direction, down.
    Jan 6, 2015. 03:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: What Drives Upside From Here? [View article]
    What's this, a rational range of price targets? I thought you have to set a price target of $200 to get published. Anyone w/ a price target over $150 is out in fantasy land. That's about 45% up from current levels coming off a huge year to the upside. Apple would need an incredible infusion of new money coming in on top of massive growth in iPhone sales, expansion of margins, etc. AAPL's already the most widely held stock by institutions. Where's the new money coming from? It's not like no one's ever heard of Apple and they're suddenly realizing that this company might have a future.

    A price target 20% is plausible. 50-100% up? Yikes.
    Jan 6, 2015. 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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