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bailinnumberguy

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  • The Problem With Apple Is Apple [View article]
    How about if we all agree to not use the term 'law of large numbers' and replace it w/ the 'law of competition' which states that effective competition in a market tends to reduce the profits that any one member in that market is able to achieve?
    Feb 5, 2013. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Ousts Samsung As No.1 Mobile Maker In U.S. In Q4 2012, Taking Record 34% Market Share [View article]
    One analyst predicts that Apple is ripe for a pop and some investors start buying the stock this afternoon just on that one opinion. No wonder so many people lose money in the market. It's the blind leading the blind.
    Feb 5, 2013. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Apple absolutely has to make an iPhone with a bigger screen," iPhone 5 owner Henry Blodget declares. While Apple (AAPL +0.1%) insists on using relatively small display sizes to guarantee effective one-handed iPhone use, devices such as Samsung's Galaxy S III (4.8" display) make the iPhone 5 look "puny and sad in comparison."  The iPhone 5's display size doesn't seem to be affecting its U.S. position much, as Strategy Analytics' numbers demonstrate, but international markets appear to be a different story. [View news story]
    Apple does make an iPhone w/ a larger screen, it's called an iPad. Who wants to carry a bulky phone around in the office when you can carry a more compact one?
    Feb 5, 2013. 10:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Long-Term Focus Justifies Amazon's Valuation [View article]
    Apple practically prints money, has huge brand loyalty and its stock has been sinking like a stone in a strong market. Amazon, which has been in business for almost 2 decades and has no brand loyalty to speak of and LOST money last year, is the darling of Wall Street. It doesn't matter what they report for a quarter, they're INVESTING FOR THE FUTURE. Maybe those are the magic words to stock value. Just say that you're INVESTING FOR THE FUTURE.
    Feb 5, 2013. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Margins Will Continue To Decline [View article]
    There's absolutely nothing wrong w/ Apple as a company. They practically print money, profiting more than $100 million a day. The stock has become a casino and is by far the most traded in the world. The company's fundamentals haven't changed very much in the last 12 months except perhaps they've grown stronger. They just had the most profitable quarter any tech company has ever had and one of the most profitable of any company in history. Mr. Market could say that the stock is worth $350 or $950 and there's not much any of us can do about it either way.
    Feb 5, 2013. 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Margins Will Continue To Decline [View article]
    What few analysts seem to want to talk about is AAPL's expanding customer base. Does this not have any value? All we hear about is declining margins, lower ASP, etc. Amazon makes no money, but is expanding its customer footprint, which investors seem to love. Apple is doing the same thing WITH big profits and everyone just shrugs.
    Feb 5, 2013. 07:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can The Apple Tree Continue To Grow? [View article]
    Anyone who has been paying close attention to AAPL over the last 4 months knows precisely what is going on. The negative attacks on the stock have been unrelenting and have gone essentially unchallenged. Fundamentally not much has changed w/ the company, but the share price has plummeted. There has been talk of margin compression for years and w/ the refresh of most of their products in the last quarter, some compression was inevitable. Last quarter was one of the most profitable in history and share prices have continued sinking like a rock. It's all about the narrative. The difference between Amazon and Apple is in managing investors. Amazon has somehow convinced its investors that its growing for the future, while every quarter making no money. Apple's a money machine w/ a huge customer base that isn't going anywhere and somehow investors have been hoodwinked to believe that the company's on a slippery slope. If Apple isn't better able to manage the investment community, it's time for its senior management to exit stage left.
    Feb 5, 2013. 01:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Plan To Buy Apple To Limit Panic [View article]
    Unless Apple has the next big thing in their product pipeline, I'm afraid that its days as a strong growth stock have ended. It remains a great company, one of the best in the world. The problem is that the high margins that it's enjoyed aren't sustainable. The company's P/E ratio has been well below the S&P average for quite some time now. That hasn't been by accident. Competition ultimately erodes profitability and Apple can't escape from that basic reality of economics in a free market.
    Feb 5, 2013. 12:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Should You Pay For Apple? [View article]
    This article would've been much more profound if written when AAPL was trading at $650 or so. Everyone has the answers looking in the rear view mirror.
    Jan 31, 2013. 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Profits Are At Risk [View article]
    Apple is on the steep slope of its cost curve having refreshed its bread-and-butter products by year end. They sold 87.5 million units vs. 73 million units a year ago with 1 fewer week in which to sell. That addition in units sold equals an expanded customer base.

    Conclusion: Margins shrunk, in part, because full economies of scale have not been reached in the unit costs of their new products. They dramatically increased sell-through units and added new customers while keeping their bottom line constant.

    You can take the facts and construct a positive or negative story to suit your own personal tastes. No one talks about the customers added, just the margin compression as the former doesn't fit well into the narrative.
    Jan 31, 2013. 04:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Gave Wall Street The Middle Finger [View article]
    I don't see how the author's conclusion is supported by the facts in this instance. Sounds more like wishful thinking than good deductive reasoning.

    What is clear is that Apple's management won't commit to an EPS number. From that you should start asking questions. Why do they not want to commit to an EPS number and instead isolate the components that make up earnings? The first thing everyone looks at is EPS.
    Jan 29, 2013. 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Value Propositions [View article]
    Price to Book Value has little to no relevance in this instance.

    Assume for the sake of argument the P to BV remains constant and Apple starts paying out special dividends:


    Apple could declare a special dividend tomorrow for half of its net book value and the value of the company drops by half? a special dividend of 75% of value and the value drops by 3/4ths? The absurd scenario where it declares all of its net book value except for $1 and Apple is worth $4?

    Doesn't really work.
    Jan 29, 2013. 04:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From Microsoft: An Outlook On Apple [View article]
    There really isn't anything wrong with Apple as a company. The problem is that for it to sustain its extraordinary valuation it had/has to continually hit it out of the park and smother its competition and be perceived as a company that will continue to do just that for years to come. Does anyone look at Tim Cook as that guy capable of continually moving the needle and keeping the company several steps ahead of the competition?
    Jan 29, 2013. 02:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's New Pet: The Black Swan [View article]
    Here's something to consider. Hopefully it won't cause indigestion or too much negative reply.

    AAPL's share price is only about $20 higher than it was just before the monster Christmas quarter report in January 2012. Share prices have fallen from a peak of about $705 right at the time of release of the iPhone5 and now are hovering around $440. That is a massive loss of shareholder wealth in a short period of time. How can you sell 48 million iPhones, 22 million iPads and the share price sinks like a stone? Clearly the big institutions are unloading shares of stock as there doesn't seem to be much support at any price. It's not just the machines and hedge funds. The big traditional funds can easily create support and overwhelm the shorts. Where have they gone?

    IMO Tim Cook's job should be on the line. What has he achieved? You can't just keep saying that its sales are 'mind-blowing'; that its subscriber base is 'jaw-dropping'; it's new products are 'really cool' and the retina display is the greatest invention since sliced bread. Cook sounds to me like an MBA trying to pretend that he's a techie. He even tries to dress like Steve. I don't think the Street is buying the routine any longer. I think that Apple rode on the coattails of what Jobs created right up to the iPhone 5 release. It's now Cook's company. He needs a home run to stop the bleeding pretty soon or he has to go.
    Jan 28, 2013. 04:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I'd Pay $400 For 'This Apple' [View article]
    When reached for comment on Apple's stock price action, Tim Cook replied "astounding", "jaw-dropping", "stunning, like our retina display"
    Jan 28, 2013. 07:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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