How Apple Can Reclaim Its Mojo - And $700 Share Price [View article]
Once upon a time there were a whole lot of Apple investors. They collectively observed that AAPL had a huge December quarter in 2011. They collectively concluded that the same thing would happen in the December quarter of 2012. Being somewhat risk averse and seeking to limit any potential losses, they collectively decided to buy options that expired just before December earnings were released. This ensured that they would be able to profit from the run-up and not be exposed to the risk of an earnings miss.
When the run-up did not occur, they started to ask why (?) They were told that there was a capital gains sell-off, signs of weakess in the supply chain and that the company had lost its ability to innovate. They started asking how there could be more sellers of the stock than buyers, only to look around and notice that everyone else was asking the same question and not enough of those asking the question were stopping their questioning to actually buy shares.
The sellers observed the phenomenon and continued selling. The stock price continued falling and everyone kept asking why.
The observation that AAPL's PE ratio is compressed has been going on for so long that you'd think that at some point maybe there's something to it. How many analysts have had the low PE ratio as the key driver in their argument that Apple stock is cheap? If that argument is valid, you should be looking at stocks w/ lower PEs as better investments.
I'm long Apple but am under no illusion that the stock will suddenly soar just to reach a PE raio of 18 or so.
Is the bad news fully baked in? Apple (AAPL +3.6%), which closed yesterday trading around 7.4x FY13E EPS (exc. cash), has rallied back above $500 in spite of Pac Crest's downgrade. The company has received favorable notes today as well: Cowen says its checks lead it to believe Apple's smartphone share rose to ~23.5% in calendar Q4 from 16.4% in Q3. Some suppliers are also up: CRUS +4.5%. OVTI +1.4%. Sterne Agee is defending Skyworks (SWKS +3.5%) after meeting with its CFO. [View news story]
When the share price moves down or up everyone thinks they have the answer as to why it happened. Everyone's a genius looking in the rear view mirror and pontificating. A year ago no one was arguing w/ any conviction that the share price would run to $700 in 2012. 3 months ago no one had that unshakeable conviction that the share price would test $500. Now all of these bears have crawled out of the caves and reminded us that they shorted the stock at $690 and never looked back. The best investors in the world confess that they can't predict what a stock will do in the very short term, but some guy w/ a keyboard and 25 shares of Apple stock has this magical clairvoyance. It's funny to observe if nothing else.
Cramer's Mad Money - What To Do About Dell (1/15/13) [View article]
Does anyone take Cramer seriously? He has an opinion on any stock that he's questioned on. There's simply no way that one person can have that level of expertise on that many stocks. The only value that Cramer has is that if he takes a position on a stock, there'll be a percentage of novice investors who'll blindly follow his advice the next day. That'll create a breakout that you can then proceed to invest against.
If cutting Apple (AAPL) targets is an Olympic sport, Nomura wins the gold, slashing its price target to $530 from $660, with the analysts proving they read the paper by citing worries over iPhone sales and gross margins. [View news story]
RycheMykol: It doesn't even require much money. All that you have to do is put out a negative note on the stock and you're from RycheMykol securities and everyone will start selling. 20 analysts can be bullish and 1 bearish and the shares drop on the opinion of the latter.
Dear Apple Board, This Is How You Defend The Share Price [View article]
This is on point. The silence out of Cupertino over the last 3 1/2 months as the stock price has cratered has been deafening. How can you just watch the value of your company drop by $200B and do nothing to defend it? Tim Cook made one lame appearance on NBC in which he hinted at an Apple TV and said nothing about the sell-off/weakness.
Come next Wednesday CFO Peter Oppenheimer will read his scripted earnings report. The first question, which Oppenheimer will know in advance, will come from Katy Huberty. Oppenheimer will literally read the answer to that question. All other questions will come from the same analysts who always ask questions on their calls. Oppenheimer will then go dark for another 3 months and repeat the same drill in April.
It's always mildly amusing to read these analyses from armchair CEOs as to what the company MUST do. Somehow Apple has managed to bank $120B and become the most valuable company in the world, muddling through w/o our invaluable advice.
The stock has given up nearly $200B in value in the last 3 1/2 months or so mainly on rumor and speculation. The only hard information there has been is Q4 earnings, which came in slightly below consensus and early sales of the iPhone 5 and iPad mini. We've heard this supply cut song before. Apple's suppliers probably know about as much about how that company conducts its business as we do. I remain skeptical of the whole pullback considering that we're about to get a report on what figures to be Apple's most profitable quarter in history. We'll have to wait and see.
If cutting Apple (AAPL) targets is an Olympic sport, Nomura wins the gold, slashing its price target to $530 from $660, with the analysts proving they read the paper by citing worries over iPhone sales and gross margins. [View news story]
Uh huh. How about giving us a heads up in advance of what you're about to do next so we can leverage your impeccable investing skills in our own decision making?
If cutting Apple (AAPL) targets is an Olympic sport, Nomura wins the gold, slashing its price target to $530 from $660, with the analysts proving they read the paper by citing worries over iPhone sales and gross margins. [View news story]
One thing that should be abundantly clear by now is that so-called analysts always have an agenda. Why would a company radically drop its targets just 8 days before earnings? Everyone has figured out that AAPL stock has become hyper-sensitive to any negative news. The stock has given up an enormous amount of value in the last 3 1/2 months on speculation, rumor and supposition. We'll get some hard news next Wednesday when people will either be vindicated in their prognostications or look kind of ridiculous.
Apple's (AAPL) shares are -3.4% premarket following reports that the company has cut iPhone 5 component orders for calendar Q1 due to weaker-than-expected demand. That's possibly helping to depress sentiment on the stock-futures market, with the Nasdaq benchmark -0.4%. The Dow is flat and the S&P is +0.1%, while Europe remains mostly in the green. [View news story]
One of the highest open interest levels in history is about to expire on Friday and everyone acts surprised that the share price is being pushed down. I looked at Apple's pre-market chart this morning and just sort of rolled my eyes and said 'here we go again'.
The company probably plans to launch an iPhone 5s or the next generation sometime in the next 6 months so naturally orders will be cut at some point. You can make a comfortable living just on the overreacting irrationality of the investing populace.
Most analyses concerning AAPL's current and expected share price, regardless of the theory being propounded, seem to have an underlying premise that the stock's current value is somehow an aberration, that it more rationally should be at the $700 or so level. This was the level that was reached in the huge run-up to the iPhone 5 release. The sell-off from that peak began right on cue w/ the release of that device and dropped precipitously from that point forward. You could make the argument that the $700 level was the aberration and that a more realistic valuation of the stock is somewhat closer to its current price. You can't escape the fact that Apple couldn't hold a price north of $600 in the spring and the $700 level in the fall. The stock seems to want to consolidate in the $500 to $550 range. A big earnings beat should propel the shares to a higher consolidation point, but the evidence of what a set point is for AAPL simply doesn't support anything north of $600 for the time being. You need to be somewhat realistic about what level the stock can sustain, otherwise you'll probably be losing money moving forward.
Apple's Newest Hire Indicates An Impending Dividend Or Share Repurchase Increase [View article]
Any move that results in the departure of Peter Oppenheimer is a positive, IMO. He's in over his head and has done nothing to leverage the power of AAPL's incredible balance sheet and earnings power. I have no doubt that Mr. Oppenheimer is competent, but Apple is probably the best CFO job in the world. They should get a world class CFO, not one who watches the share price gyrate like a penny stock w/o taking any action to mitigate such volatility and looks at $120 billion in cash and just shrugs.
Tim Cook Meets With China Mobile, Says China Will Soon Become Apple's Most Important Market [View article]
Apparently very few people understand Apple speak and Tim Cook speak in particular. When he says that China will become Apple's most important market in the not-too-distant he's subtly telling us something is about to happen He says NOTHING without it having a specific purpose and everything he has said to date as CEO has come to fruition. He's the master of subtly tipping off investors. He alluded to a dividend and a few months later there was a dividend. He slyly announced the date at which the iPad crossed the 100 million unit mark to give the heads up that tablet sales would come in below projections, sending analysts to lower estimates and minimize the earnings miss. He's not going to send out any false signals. When he says that China will soon become Apple's biggest market he's likely saying that a China Mobile deal is about to go down or is already in motion.
We'll wait to see what happens over the next few months w/ respect to China and whatever is on the horizon for TV.
How Apple Can Reclaim Its Mojo - And $700 Share Price [View article]
When the run-up did not occur, they started to ask why (?) They were told that there was a capital gains sell-off, signs of weakess in the supply chain and that the company had lost its ability to innovate. They started asking how there could be more sellers of the stock than buyers, only to look around and notice that everyone else was asking the same question and not enough of those asking the question were stopping their questioning to actually buy shares.
The sellers observed the phenomenon and continued selling. The stock price continued falling and everyone kept asking why.
Apple Sure Looks Cheap [View article]
I'm long Apple but am under no illusion that the stock will suddenly soar just to reach a PE raio of 18 or so.
Is the bad news fully baked in? Apple (AAPL +3.6%), which closed yesterday trading around 7.4x FY13E EPS (exc. cash), has rallied back above $500 in spite of Pac Crest's downgrade. The company has received favorable notes today as well: Cowen says its checks lead it to believe Apple's smartphone share rose to ~23.5% in calendar Q4 from 16.4% in Q3. Some suppliers are also up: CRUS +4.5%. OVTI +1.4%. Sterne Agee is defending Skyworks (SWKS +3.5%) after meeting with its CFO. [View news story]
Cramer's Mad Money - What To Do About Dell (1/15/13) [View article]
Dear Apple Board, This Is How You Defend The Share Price [View article]
If cutting Apple (AAPL) targets is an Olympic sport, Nomura wins the gold, slashing its price target to $530 from $660, with the analysts proving they read the paper by citing worries over iPhone sales and gross margins. [View news story]
Dear Apple Board, This Is How You Defend The Share Price [View article]
Come next Wednesday CFO Peter Oppenheimer will read his scripted earnings report. The first question, which Oppenheimer will know in advance, will come from Katy Huberty. Oppenheimer will literally read the answer to that question. All other questions will come from the same analysts who always ask questions on their calls. Oppenheimer will then go dark for another 3 months and repeat the same drill in April.
Why Apple Needs A Cheaper iPhone [View article]
Why Apple Needs A Cheaper iPhone [View article]
If cutting Apple (AAPL) targets is an Olympic sport, Nomura wins the gold, slashing its price target to $530 from $660, with the analysts proving they read the paper by citing worries over iPhone sales and gross margins. [View news story]
If cutting Apple (AAPL) targets is an Olympic sport, Nomura wins the gold, slashing its price target to $530 from $660, with the analysts proving they read the paper by citing worries over iPhone sales and gross margins. [View news story]
Apple's (AAPL) shares are -3.4% premarket following reports that the company has cut iPhone 5 component orders for calendar Q1 due to weaker-than-expected demand. That's possibly helping to depress sentiment on the stock-futures market, with the Nasdaq benchmark -0.4%. The Dow is flat and the S&P is +0.1%, while Europe remains mostly in the green. [View news story]
The company probably plans to launch an iPhone 5s or the next generation sometime in the next 6 months so naturally orders will be cut at some point. You can make a comfortable living just on the overreacting irrationality of the investing populace.
Apple: Get Ready For January 18 [View article]
Apple's Newest Hire Indicates An Impending Dividend Or Share Repurchase Increase [View article]
Tim Cook Meets With China Mobile, Says China Will Soon Become Apple's Most Important Market [View article]
We'll wait to see what happens over the next few months w/ respect to China and whatever is on the horizon for TV.