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bailinnumberguy

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  • In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
    I've been thinking about this all morning and decided to bail on Apple completely. I've been an Apple bull for years so this isn't an easy decision. It's distressing to read some of the posters above still hoping for an Apple TV or a China Mobile deal. Apple just reported one of the most profitable quarters in history and the stock price went STRAIGHT DOWN. Clearly the big institutional investors are abandoning Apple. I might be wrong, but this stock is clearly in trouble. Who really wants to wait around months and years for an Apple TV which might be underwhelming or a China Mobile deal which might come sometime in the next 1 to 5 years?
    Jan 25, 2013. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of Apple: Battling The Mounting Hysteria [View article]
    I started unraveling my AAPL positions when it went below the 200-day in the high 500s and couldn't recover. I've been dabbling ever since w/ small purchases and not much success.

    I think you have to be a realist w/ any stock that you hold, otherwise you'll ultimately get killed. The reality seems to be that the big institutions have not stepped up to the plate to defend the share price. That tells me that some of the big institutions are lessening their positions in AAPL and it's not just the hedge funds/machines that are driving the price down.

    All the nonsense that we were fed about capital gains selling appears to have been a bunch of baloney.
    Jan 25, 2013. 11:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Growth Story Is Over [View article]
    Apple's bread-and-butter is the iPhone. Most of the company's value is in that device. The fact there are so many people willing to buy the iPhone4 and 4S is a reminder that the iPhone5 wasn't a game changer. When the stock ran up to $700+, that was speculative on the iPhone5 being a killer device that everyone on earth would have to have. Didn't happen.

    Apple needs to deliver a game changer to boost its share price. You can't just continue to have rumors about an Apple TV or a China Mobile deal. We've been hearing about these for years already. At some point you have to wonder what the problem is in bringing these to market.
    Jan 24, 2013. 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Apple, What A Difference A Week Makes [View article]
    All of this hand wringing over what's wrong w/ Apple. Nothing is wrong w/ the company. The company profits over $150 million a day. They sold about 90 million devices in the quarter.

    The problem for investors is as clear as day: there simply aren't enough incremental new investors to push the share price up. For the most part, everyone who's going to own the stock has already purchased shares. Apple as a growth story is so well known that you'd have to be living on another planet to not have heard about it.
    Jan 24, 2013. 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL): FQ1 EPS of $13.81 beats by $0.37. Revenue of $54.51B (+18% Y/Y) misses by $220M. 47.8M iPhones, 22.9M iPads, 4.1M Macs, 12.7M iPods. Expects FQ2 revenue of $41B-$43B, below $45.6B consensus. Shares -4.3% AH. (PR[View news story]
    Looking for any fundamental reason for the stock to tank in the after hours is probably a waste of time. An earnings beat, a small miss on revenues, iPhone sales about where expected, iPad sales about where expected. Cash continuing to grow. There's no way that information was absorbed in the 30 seconds it took for the price to head due south with the conclusion that it was a bad report

    Some group of investors has probably been driving down this thing down for 3 months and continued in the after hours. If I'd seen the numbers and wasn't looking at what the share price was doing, I'd assume that AAPL would stay kind of flat.

    This pullback is being orchestrated and if you don't think so, buyer beware.
    Jan 23, 2013. 09:44 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL): FQ1 EPS of $13.81 beats by $0.37. Revenue of $54.51B (+18% Y/Y) misses by $220M. 47.8M iPhones, 22.9M iPads, 4.1M Macs, 12.7M iPods. Expects FQ2 revenue of $41B-$43B, below $45.6B consensus. Shares -4.3% AH. (PR[View news story]
    Wow, if this isn't a wake up call I don't know what is. The company has an extraordinary quarter and continues to pad its balance sheet. It sells 90 million devices, including 48 M iPhones and 22 M iPads. It's selling off in the AH as if they'd just declared bankruptcy.

    Maybe there's something to the law of large numbers but not in the technical sense of reverting to a mean. Once a company achieves a certain value it has to continually hit home runs just to tread water. While its performance has been outstanding, the bar has been set so high that it's impossible to reach it w/ any regularity.
    Jan 23, 2013. 07:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL): FQ1 EPS of $13.81 beats by $0.37. Revenue of $54.51B (+18% Y/Y) misses by $220M. 47.8M iPhones, 22.9M iPads, 4.1M Macs, 12.7M iPods. Expects FQ2 revenue of $41B-$43B, below $45.6B consensus. Shares -4.3% AH. (PR[View news story]
    Apple's management sounded noticeably shaken on the earnings call. No doubt they saw the share price tanking as they were answering questions.
    Jan 23, 2013. 07:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Can Reclaim Its Mojo - And $700 Share Price [View article]
    Once upon a time there were a whole lot of Apple investors. They collectively observed that AAPL had a huge December quarter in 2011. They collectively concluded that the same thing would happen in the December quarter of 2012. Being somewhat risk averse and seeking to limit any potential losses, they collectively decided to buy options that expired just before December earnings were released. This ensured that they would be able to profit from the run-up and not be exposed to the risk of an earnings miss.

    When the run-up did not occur, they started to ask why (?) They were told that there was a capital gains sell-off, signs of weakess in the supply chain and that the company had lost its ability to innovate. They started asking how there could be more sellers of the stock than buyers, only to look around and notice that everyone else was asking the same question and not enough of those asking the question were stopping their questioning to actually buy shares.

    The sellers observed the phenomenon and continued selling. The stock price continued falling and everyone kept asking why.
    Jan 17, 2013. 04:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Sure Looks Cheap [View article]
    The observation that AAPL's PE ratio is compressed has been going on for so long that you'd think that at some point maybe there's something to it. How many analysts have had the low PE ratio as the key driver in their argument that Apple stock is cheap? If that argument is valid, you should be looking at stocks w/ lower PEs as better investments.

    I'm long Apple but am under no illusion that the stock will suddenly soar just to reach a PE raio of 18 or so.
    Jan 17, 2013. 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the bad news fully baked in? Apple (AAPL +3.6%), which closed yesterday trading around 7.4x FY13E EPS (exc. cash), has rallied back above $500 in spite of Pac Crest's downgrade. The company has received favorable notes today as well: Cowen says its checks lead it to believe Apple's smartphone share rose to ~23.5% in calendar Q4 from 16.4% in Q3. Some suppliers are also up: CRUS +4.5%. OVTI +1.4%. Sterne Agee is defending Skyworks (SWKS +3.5%) after meeting with its CFO. [View news story]
    When the share price moves down or up everyone thinks they have the answer as to why it happened. Everyone's a genius looking in the rear view mirror and pontificating. A year ago no one was arguing w/ any conviction that the share price would run to $700 in 2012. 3 months ago no one had that unshakeable conviction that the share price would test $500. Now all of these bears have crawled out of the caves and reminded us that they shorted the stock at $690 and never looked back. The best investors in the world confess that they can't predict what a stock will do in the very short term, but some guy w/ a keyboard and 25 shares of Apple stock has this magical clairvoyance. It's funny to observe if nothing else.
    Jan 16, 2013. 01:31 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Mad Money - What To Do About Dell (1/15/13) [View article]
    Does anyone take Cramer seriously? He has an opinion on any stock that he's questioned on. There's simply no way that one person can have that level of expertise on that many stocks. The only value that Cramer has is that if he takes a position on a stock, there'll be a percentage of novice investors who'll blindly follow his advice the next day. That'll create a breakout that you can then proceed to invest against.
    Jan 16, 2013. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dear Apple Board, This Is How You Defend The Share Price [View article]
    Breaking news: Companies exist mainly to create returns for its investors.
    Jan 16, 2013. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If cutting Apple (AAPL) targets is an Olympic sport, Nomura wins the gold, slashing its price target to $530 from $660, with the analysts proving they read the paper by citing worries over iPhone sales and gross margins. [View news story]
    RycheMykol: It doesn't even require much money. All that you have to do is put out a negative note on the stock and you're from RycheMykol securities and everyone will start selling. 20 analysts can be bullish and 1 bearish and the shares drop on the opinion of the latter.
    Jan 16, 2013. 02:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dear Apple Board, This Is How You Defend The Share Price [View article]
    This is on point. The silence out of Cupertino over the last 3 1/2 months as the stock price has cratered has been deafening. How can you just watch the value of your company drop by $200B and do nothing to defend it? Tim Cook made one lame appearance on NBC in which he hinted at an Apple TV and said nothing about the sell-off/weakness.

    Come next Wednesday CFO Peter Oppenheimer will read his scripted earnings report. The first question, which Oppenheimer will know in advance, will come from Katy Huberty. Oppenheimer will literally read the answer to that question. All other questions will come from the same analysts who always ask questions on their calls. Oppenheimer will then go dark for another 3 months and repeat the same drill in April.
    Jan 15, 2013. 04:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Needs A Cheaper iPhone [View article]
    It's always mildly amusing to read these analyses from armchair CEOs as to what the company MUST do. Somehow Apple has managed to bank $120B and become the most valuable company in the world, muddling through w/o our invaluable advice.
    Jan 15, 2013. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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