Seeking Alpha

bailinnumberguy

bailinnumberguy
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View bailinnumberguy's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Dear Apple Board, This Is How You Defend The Share Price [View article]
    This is on point. The silence out of Cupertino over the last 3 1/2 months as the stock price has cratered has been deafening. How can you just watch the value of your company drop by $200B and do nothing to defend it? Tim Cook made one lame appearance on NBC in which he hinted at an Apple TV and said nothing about the sell-off/weakness.

    Come next Wednesday CFO Peter Oppenheimer will read his scripted earnings report. The first question, which Oppenheimer will know in advance, will come from Katy Huberty. Oppenheimer will literally read the answer to that question. All other questions will come from the same analysts who always ask questions on their calls. Oppenheimer will then go dark for another 3 months and repeat the same drill in April.
    Jan 15, 2013. 04:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Needs A Cheaper iPhone [View article]
    It's always mildly amusing to read these analyses from armchair CEOs as to what the company MUST do. Somehow Apple has managed to bank $120B and become the most valuable company in the world, muddling through w/o our invaluable advice.
    Jan 15, 2013. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Needs A Cheaper iPhone [View article]
    The stock has given up nearly $200B in value in the last 3 1/2 months or so mainly on rumor and speculation. The only hard information there has been is Q4 earnings, which came in slightly below consensus and early sales of the iPhone 5 and iPad mini. We've heard this supply cut song before. Apple's suppliers probably know about as much about how that company conducts its business as we do. I remain skeptical of the whole pullback considering that we're about to get a report on what figures to be Apple's most profitable quarter in history. We'll have to wait and see.
    Jan 15, 2013. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If cutting Apple (AAPL) targets is an Olympic sport, Nomura wins the gold, slashing its price target to $530 from $660, with the analysts proving they read the paper by citing worries over iPhone sales and gross margins. [View news story]
    Uh huh. How about giving us a heads up in advance of what you're about to do next so we can leverage your impeccable investing skills in our own decision making?
    Jan 15, 2013. 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If cutting Apple (AAPL) targets is an Olympic sport, Nomura wins the gold, slashing its price target to $530 from $660, with the analysts proving they read the paper by citing worries over iPhone sales and gross margins. [View news story]
    One thing that should be abundantly clear by now is that so-called analysts always have an agenda. Why would a company radically drop its targets just 8 days before earnings? Everyone has figured out that AAPL stock has become hyper-sensitive to any negative news. The stock has given up an enormous amount of value in the last 3 1/2 months on speculation, rumor and supposition. We'll get some hard news next Wednesday when people will either be vindicated in their prognostications or look kind of ridiculous.
    Jan 15, 2013. 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's (AAPL) shares are -3.4% premarket following reports that the company has cut iPhone 5 component orders for calendar Q1 due to weaker-than-expected demand. That's possibly helping to depress sentiment on the stock-futures market, with the Nasdaq benchmark -0.4%. The Dow is flat and the S&P is +0.1%, while Europe remains mostly in the green. [View news story]
    One of the highest open interest levels in history is about to expire on Friday and everyone acts surprised that the share price is being pushed down. I looked at Apple's pre-market chart this morning and just sort of rolled my eyes and said 'here we go again'.

    The company probably plans to launch an iPhone 5s or the next generation sometime in the next 6 months so naturally orders will be cut at some point. You can make a comfortable living just on the overreacting irrationality of the investing populace.
    Jan 14, 2013. 02:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Get Ready For January 18 [View article]
    Most analyses concerning AAPL's current and expected share price, regardless of the theory being propounded, seem to have an underlying premise that the stock's current value is somehow an aberration, that it more rationally should be at the $700 or so level. This was the level that was reached in the huge run-up to the iPhone 5 release. The sell-off from that peak began right on cue w/ the release of that device and dropped precipitously from that point forward. You could make the argument that the $700 level was the aberration and that a more realistic valuation of the stock is somewhat closer to its current price. You can't escape the fact that Apple couldn't hold a price north of $600 in the spring and the $700 level in the fall. The stock seems to want to consolidate in the $500 to $550 range. A big earnings beat should propel the shares to a higher consolidation point, but the evidence of what a set point is for AAPL simply doesn't support anything north of $600 for the time being. You need to be somewhat realistic about what level the stock can sustain, otherwise you'll probably be losing money moving forward.
    Jan 14, 2013. 02:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Newest Hire Indicates An Impending Dividend Or Share Repurchase Increase [View article]
    Any move that results in the departure of Peter Oppenheimer is a positive, IMO. He's in over his head and has done nothing to leverage the power of AAPL's incredible balance sheet and earnings power. I have no doubt that Mr. Oppenheimer is competent, but Apple is probably the best CFO job in the world. They should get a world class CFO, not one who watches the share price gyrate like a penny stock w/o taking any action to mitigate such volatility and looks at $120 billion in cash and just shrugs.
    Jan 13, 2013. 06:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook Meets With China Mobile, Says China Will Soon Become Apple's Most Important Market [View article]
    Apparently very few people understand Apple speak and Tim Cook speak in particular. When he says that China will become Apple's most important market in the not-too-distant he's subtly telling us something is about to happen He says NOTHING without it having a specific purpose and everything he has said to date as CEO has come to fruition. He's the master of subtly tipping off investors. He alluded to a dividend and a few months later there was a dividend. He slyly announced the date at which the iPad crossed the 100 million unit mark to give the heads up that tablet sales would come in below projections, sending analysts to lower estimates and minimize the earnings miss. He's not going to send out any false signals. When he says that China will soon become Apple's biggest market he's likely saying that a China Mobile deal is about to go down or is already in motion.

    We'll wait to see what happens over the next few months w/ respect to China and whatever is on the horizon for TV.
    Jan 12, 2013. 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Apple Repeat Of Last Quarter? [View article]
    Anyone recommending a temporary short in a stock that he's bullish on in the long term can be safely ignored. Amateur investors who make a habit out of shorting stocks will get fleeced in the long term. It's far more difficult to make money short than long. Also implied is an ability to predict what a stock will do in the very short term. Uh, no thanks on that prospect. I'm sure of this over the next few weeks: AAPL will either go up or down.
    Jan 7, 2013. 04:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Sole Apple-Beater: Samsung Electronics [View article]
    As an Apple investor, I don't worry too much about Samsung. The latter company is simply into too many different businesses to ultimately win the battle against Apple.

    Apple sticks to its knitting. Samsung is in to pretty much anything you can think of: electronics, pharmaceuticals, insurance, appliances, computer chips, ad infinitum. Having spent some time in Hong Kong, Korean, mainland China and Tokyo that brand blankets the continent. In speaking w/ some of the Chinese, Apple is a status product while Samsung products are practically available on every street corner.

    We forget that the Smartphone industry is just in its infancy and it probably isn't going anywhere. 10, 20 years from now I don't see people not using Smartphones. Apple knows this better than we do, the Smartphone (for now) is their bread and butter. I suspect that w/ the embedded iPhone user base already in place (approximately 250 million and growing) Apple will remain either the market leader or co-leader for years to come. Samsung wants to be in every business. That strategy has never worked before and I suspect that ultimate Samsung will get outflanked, either by Apple or some other unknown contender not presently under discussion.
    Jan 7, 2013. 04:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Cash Hoard Is An Asset, Not A Liability [View article]
    Apple has done many things spectacularly well over the last decade. Unfortunately cash and financial management are not on that list. By their own admission they have far more cash than they need. They come up w/ a token dividend/share buyback purchase program which brings in some income funds but still leaves the company w/ a huge pile of cash that simply isn't doing much.

    They should work out some arrangement w/ our government negotiating tax incentives to bring back some of the offshore money in exchange for onshoring some manufacturing operations.
    Jan 7, 2013. 01:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Don't Follow The Herd [View article]
    That sound you hear is the bears crawling back into their caves. Maybe they'll return in May. AAPL somewhere north of $600 at earnings. No further comment at this time.
    Jan 2, 2013. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Don't Follow The Herd [View article]
    2 points: (1) Smartphones and tablets are still growing markets and Apple is the market leader in both (2) Anyone paying attention knows that some form of a TV is on the way.
    Jan 2, 2013. 03:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Still A Better Value Than Google [View article]
    You actually have it backwards. Google's been dead money for 5 years while Apple has increased 6 fold in that period. Not sure what monthly charts you're referring to unless you're only looking at the last 3 months or standing on your head when looking.
    Jan 1, 2013. 02:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,092 Comments
1,356 Likes