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bailinnumberguy

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  • Is It Time To Short Apple? [View article]
    Shorting a company like AAPL is swimming against the tide and hoping for the best. A steady diet of that behavior will clean out your trading account. I love when someone takes or is given credit for being right on some past prediction. I can make 10 predictions and I'm pretty sure I'd get at least 1 of them right. I can direct you to that 1 correct one and look like a genius.
    Dec 11, 2014. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Between Icahn And A Much Harder Rock [View article]
    Icahn usually can have his way w/ companies that he gets involved with. As David Einhorn found out, Apple management is going to do what they're going to do and the haranguing of significant investors isn't going to move the needle even slightly.
    Jan 29, 2014. 03:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: Can Apple Top Earnings Expectations? [View article]
    When Icahn says it's a no brainer what he's really saying is that he's bought all the shares he's going to buy and he needs others to come in behind him to pump up his shares.
    Jan 28, 2014. 12:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: Can Apple Top Earnings Expectations? [View article]
    Everyone who sold off to drive it down $40 a share apparently doesn't agree w/ your assessment.
    Jan 28, 2014. 12:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: All Systems Go For 2014 [View article]
    Are analysts still on this forward earnings kick w/ Apple? It doesn't seem to matter w/ Amazon, where if you look at their forward earnings the stock should be trading at about 10% of its current valuation. Take Carl Icahn out of the picture and the stock is probably $100 lower today. Investors were eaten alive dreaming of the stock's inevitable run to $1000 based on similar projections based on its low multiple. There'll be a lot of bumps in the road before Apple gets traction w/ China Mobile. I have some direct experience w/ that company, which isn't one giant monolith but is spread out provincially across China. Each principality needs to be dealt w/ on its own terms. Investors beware.
    Dec 25, 2013. 12:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Spells The End Of An Era At Apple [View article]
    Icahn knows that most investors are buffoons. He buys all the AAPL stock he's gonna buy then let's it slip out that he has a large holding and the stock is substantially undervalued. He's probably in Apple for a quick hit and knows how to influence the share price like no one else. What's he gonna say, it's overvalued? All the sheep fall in line and start buying shares. Once this latest surge exhausts itself, it becomes a dream shorting scenario.
    Aug 13, 2013. 09:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why An Apple/China Mobile Deal Is Imminent [View article]
    The deal has been imminent for 4 years already. China Mobile has a huge subscriber base, but it isn't one big centralized company. It's made up of a collection of local interest each of which must be negotiated w/ separately. There will never be a single China Mobile deal. If they come on board w/ Apple at all, it'll be in small pieces.
    Aug 2, 2013. 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Significantly Undervalued And Poised For A Bull Run [View article]
    Apparently no one was paying attention when Apple corrected from its stratospheric $700 levels. A big bull run on Apple shares is simply not happening. Institutions still have heavy holdings but there's significant consensus that the AAPL growth story is pretty much over. The time to buy Apple was when the iPhone first came out and then again w/ the introduction of the iPad. Tim Cook is a competent, rational manager but where is the innovation? Nothing of note since Jobs left the scene.
    Aug 2, 2013. 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimate cuts from Pac Crest's Andy Hargreaves are helping Apple (AAPL -2%) underperform. Citing weak demand for the 9.7" iPad - he thinks this is likely "a sustained trend" as demand shifts to smaller/cheaper tablets - and a demand pause ahead of a refresh, Hargreaves is cutting his FQ3 (June quarter) iPad forecast to 15M units from 18.5M. He also thinks "the high end of the smartphone market is quickly becoming saturated," and has lowered FQ2 and FQ4 revenue/EPS estimates further below consensus. Hargreaves cut Apple to Sector Perform on Jan. 16, when shares were at $503. [View news story]
    I was in an AT&T store today looking at some peripherals. I asked the salesman how iPhone sales have been and he indicated that more than 80% of the phones that they sell are iPhones. Rumors of Apple's demise have been greatly overstated.
    Mar 28, 2013. 06:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimate cuts from Pac Crest's Andy Hargreaves are helping Apple (AAPL -2%) underperform. Citing weak demand for the 9.7" iPad - he thinks this is likely "a sustained trend" as demand shifts to smaller/cheaper tablets - and a demand pause ahead of a refresh, Hargreaves is cutting his FQ3 (June quarter) iPad forecast to 15M units from 18.5M. He also thinks "the high end of the smartphone market is quickly becoming saturated," and has lowered FQ2 and FQ4 revenue/EPS estimates further below consensus. Hargreaves cut Apple to Sector Perform on Jan. 16, when shares were at $503. [View news story]
    GOOG's bubbles about to burst somewhat. The run up in Google is mainly a function of the sell-off in Apple, as misinformed investors assume that Apple's loss is Google's gain.
    Mar 28, 2013. 03:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Hold On Tight And Don't Play Wall Street's Game [View article]
    No one disputes that there is room for Apple in the global economy. What is in dispute is the prevailing $400B market cap
    Mar 18, 2013. 05:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Hold On Tight And Don't Play Wall Street's Game [View article]
    "With all due respect, the movements of the market are not solely nor even more than marginally due to day traders and manipulation. The market is an efficient discounting mechanism, and Apple's shares have simply been reflecting investor concern about where future growth will come from for the behemoth of a company."

    With all due respect you probably also believe in the Easter Bunny. From Thanksgiving 2011 to September 21, 2012 Apple's share price nearly doubled. From September 21, 2012 to the present Apple's share price has given back most of what it gained in the preceding period. Throughout these periods Apple has sold about what was expected in its major product lines and competition has, as had been anticipated, gotten stronger. Where in this scenario are you finding market efficiency?
    Mar 18, 2013. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Non-Decline And Fall Of Apple [View article]
    Apple's share price shot up dramatically from about $362 on Black Friday 2011 to $705 on September 21, 2012 adding an enormous amount of market cap. Just as dramatically, it's dropped to about $430 in less than 6 months.

    It takes an awful lot of impetus to push a company the size of Apple that far up and back down again. Anyone paying attention to the sudden change in sentiment about Apple, if he was a suspicious sort, might conclude that there was a concerted effort to push the price up and then drag it down again. Of course I could be wrong.
    Mar 14, 2013. 06:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Wall Street's Ignorance At Large Again [View article]
    Trying to use any kind of a discounted cash flow method 10 years out in the uber-competitive technology space where almost any company isn't a certainty to even exist in a decade is a waste of time. The one question that investors should ask themselves is 'Is Apple's future worth its current market cap of $400 B?'. If you think it is, and keep in mind that that's 1 1/2 times Google's future, and no other company except one is anywhere close to that level, by all means invest in Apple. Otherwise, abstain.
    Mar 12, 2013. 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Apple Now [View article]
    The best thing that Apple can do in the near term is bring in a financial engineering guru and consider moving that bean counter, Peter Oppenheimer, on to special projects. The company is sitting on an absurd level of cash doing nothing. Finance types know this and discount the company's value greatly because of it. David Einhorn is a blow-hard, but he understands the power in Apple's cash position.
    Mar 11, 2013. 05:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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