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bailinnumberguy

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  • Apple Is Significantly Undervalued And Poised For A Bull Run [View article]
    Apparently no one was paying attention when Apple corrected from its stratospheric $700 levels. A big bull run on Apple shares is simply not happening. Institutions still have heavy holdings but there's significant consensus that the AAPL growth story is pretty much over. The time to buy Apple was when the iPhone first came out and then again w/ the introduction of the iPad. Tim Cook is a competent, rational manager but where is the innovation? Nothing of note since Jobs left the scene.
    Aug 2, 2013. 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimate cuts from Pac Crest's Andy Hargreaves are helping Apple (AAPL -2%) underperform. Citing weak demand for the 9.7" iPad - he thinks this is likely "a sustained trend" as demand shifts to smaller/cheaper tablets - and a demand pause ahead of a refresh, Hargreaves is cutting his FQ3 (June quarter) iPad forecast to 15M units from 18.5M. He also thinks "the high end of the smartphone market is quickly becoming saturated," and has lowered FQ2 and FQ4 revenue/EPS estimates further below consensus. Hargreaves cut Apple to Sector Perform on Jan. 16, when shares were at $503. [View news story]
    I was in an AT&T store today looking at some peripherals. I asked the salesman how iPhone sales have been and he indicated that more than 80% of the phones that they sell are iPhones. Rumors of Apple's demise have been greatly overstated.
    Mar 28, 2013. 06:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimate cuts from Pac Crest's Andy Hargreaves are helping Apple (AAPL -2%) underperform. Citing weak demand for the 9.7" iPad - he thinks this is likely "a sustained trend" as demand shifts to smaller/cheaper tablets - and a demand pause ahead of a refresh, Hargreaves is cutting his FQ3 (June quarter) iPad forecast to 15M units from 18.5M. He also thinks "the high end of the smartphone market is quickly becoming saturated," and has lowered FQ2 and FQ4 revenue/EPS estimates further below consensus. Hargreaves cut Apple to Sector Perform on Jan. 16, when shares were at $503. [View news story]
    GOOG's bubbles about to burst somewhat. The run up in Google is mainly a function of the sell-off in Apple, as misinformed investors assume that Apple's loss is Google's gain.
    Mar 28, 2013. 03:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Hold On Tight And Don't Play Wall Street's Game [View article]
    No one disputes that there is room for Apple in the global economy. What is in dispute is the prevailing $400B market cap
    Mar 18, 2013. 05:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Hold On Tight And Don't Play Wall Street's Game [View article]
    "With all due respect, the movements of the market are not solely nor even more than marginally due to day traders and manipulation. The market is an efficient discounting mechanism, and Apple's shares have simply been reflecting investor concern about where future growth will come from for the behemoth of a company."

    With all due respect you probably also believe in the Easter Bunny. From Thanksgiving 2011 to September 21, 2012 Apple's share price nearly doubled. From September 21, 2012 to the present Apple's share price has given back most of what it gained in the preceding period. Throughout these periods Apple has sold about what was expected in its major product lines and competition has, as had been anticipated, gotten stronger. Where in this scenario are you finding market efficiency?
    Mar 18, 2013. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Non-Decline And Fall Of Apple [View article]
    Apple's share price shot up dramatically from about $362 on Black Friday 2011 to $705 on September 21, 2012 adding an enormous amount of market cap. Just as dramatically, it's dropped to about $430 in less than 6 months.

    It takes an awful lot of impetus to push a company the size of Apple that far up and back down again. Anyone paying attention to the sudden change in sentiment about Apple, if he was a suspicious sort, might conclude that there was a concerted effort to push the price up and then drag it down again. Of course I could be wrong.
    Mar 14, 2013. 06:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Wall Street's Ignorance At Large Again [View article]
    Trying to use any kind of a discounted cash flow method 10 years out in the uber-competitive technology space where almost any company isn't a certainty to even exist in a decade is a waste of time. The one question that investors should ask themselves is 'Is Apple's future worth its current market cap of $400 B?'. If you think it is, and keep in mind that that's 1 1/2 times Google's future, and no other company except one is anywhere close to that level, by all means invest in Apple. Otherwise, abstain.
    Mar 12, 2013. 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Apple Now [View article]
    The best thing that Apple can do in the near term is bring in a financial engineering guru and consider moving that bean counter, Peter Oppenheimer, on to special projects. The company is sitting on an absurd level of cash doing nothing. Finance types know this and discount the company's value greatly because of it. David Einhorn is a blow-hard, but he understands the power in Apple's cash position.
    Mar 11, 2013. 05:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Apple Now [View article]
    An old Finance professor of mine had a joke about technical analysis: A technical analyst is shown his EKG while under sedation. When he leaves the hospital he logs on to his trading account and tries to buy shares of EKG. Ba da bing.
    Mar 11, 2013. 05:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Should Follow IBM's Successful Turnaround Story [View article]
    Apple's the most profitable company in the world with more money in the bank than they could ever need. In retrospect the stock's run to $700 was an ill-fated speculative fiasco. People forget that Apple became the most valuable company in history 6 months ago. If there never was that big run up no one would be talking about 'turning around' Apple.
    Mar 9, 2013. 01:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Can Recapture Old Magic By Looking To The East [View article]
    Apple was essentially a monopoly in the quality smartphone category when the iPhone first arrived and for several years thereafter. Other companies, principally Samsung (who also is a key supplier to Apple) , figured out what Apple was doing and Apple is no longer a monopoly in that space. Monopolies make big profits. Competition erodes those profits. That's only been the case for the last 1000 years or so. That's pretty much the story of what's going on w/ Apple.
    Mar 8, 2013. 08:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Learn From Andy Zaky's Mistake [View article]
    What burned a lot of us was the notion that AAPL ALWAYS bounces back. As it started moving down off of its $700 high, we all thought that it was a sell the news (iPhone 5) temporary re-trace to load up on for greater profits moving into the Christmas quarter. We all thought that Apple was that one stock that would defy gravity forever and just keep climbing to astronomical levels. It's still a bit of a shock that the stock reversed course so dramatically, but the point is well taken in this article: if you put too many of your eggs in one basket too often, eventually you'll have problems w/ that basket.

    I was in an Apple Store yesterday. As a reformed Apple bull, it was depressing. Gone were the usual crowds, just a hand-full of customers being trained and wandering around. Maybe it was an isolated event, but it's been a long time since I've seen an Apple Store so desolate.
    Mar 7, 2013. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Has The Solution For Apple [View article]
    Apple has this reputation as this great innovative company. History doesn't really bear this out. Apple has taken EXISTING technology developed by other companies and outflanked its competition. That was purely a function of the brilliance of Steve Jobs, who had a unique talent to package highly appealing products. Tim Cook seems like a talented guy, but he isn't Steve Jobs. Apple is now one of several companies w/ talented people competing in a hypercompetitive market space. People like Steve Jobs and Bill Gates simply aren't replaceable.
    Mar 5, 2013. 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Buy The Steak - Hold For The Coming Sizzles! [View article]
    In my opinion, if companies like Apple and Google are banking on the next big thing being products like the iWatch or Google Glass, they've entered into what I call the goof-ball phase. These products will mainly appeal to a very limited subset of the population. There isn't a huge clamoring for a smart watch or goofy looking glasses that you can use as a monitor while driving your car into a tree.

    There's this perception that Apple is this great innovative company. I'd argue that they've never been that. They've taken existing technology and greatly improved/perfected it. The technology for what became the iPod was at Sony long before Steve Jobs saw the potential in it and brought it to Apple. PDAs existed long before the iPhone. The Palm Pilot was kind of a very primitive iPhone w/o the phone and was out a decade before the iPhone. The iPhone greatly improved on the Blackberry and offered a touch screen. The iPad is basically a very big screened iPhone w/o the phone. Apple perfected the portable music player, combined it w/ a Smartphone and that might well be where the story ends.
    Mar 2, 2013. 03:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Billionaire Halvorsen Dumped Apple In Favor Of This Tech Company [View article]
    Apple's last quarter was about the most profitable in the history of capitalism and the stock now trades w/ a P/E multiple under 10. Of course stock prices are all about the future, but does Apple's future really look that much more bleak than it did in mid-September, when it was moving towards $700?

    Sometimes we forget that the majority of trading (75% or more) is done w/ machines that are programmed to trade on momentum. The run-up and sell-off have undoubtedly been heavily influenced by HFT. I'm going to stick w/ Apple and start re-loading on fundamentals at these levels. The company needs some strong positive catalysts, but at some point you just have to say that the price is too low to be rational.

    If you back out the cash, the TRAILING P/E will be under 6 by the end of the quarter (assuming the share price doesn't change). That's an absurd implied yield. You have to assume that Apple's margins are going to completely collapse and that it'll be losing customers in large bunches to justify that kind of multiple. The stock's been stuck in a negative feedback loop for a while, but that won't last forever.

    The street doesn't seem to be showing much love toTim Cook. Amazon says its investing in the future and the stock price goes up, even though the company loses money. Apple's planning for the long term while making huge profits and the share price heads due south. Crazy. Maybe the problem is the messenger.
    Mar 2, 2013. 03:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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