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bailinnumberguy

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  • Profiting From Goldman Sachs's A-List [View article]
    It's a minimum of $100 Million for any company. The table in the article shows the $2,700 Million for Apple.
    Dec 11 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL +0.5%) will roll out the iPad 3 next February, Citi's Richard Gartner writes, unconcerned about Asian supply chain worries related to floods in Thailand that might have called the launch date into question: "Several sources have confirmed the timing of this launch, and there do not appear to be any significant technical hurdles remaining."  [View news story]
    It'll be interesting to see how Apple prices the iPad2 and if there's a smaller, cheaper tablet in the pipeline to poach the Kindle Fire market. Apple has the muscle and the technological leverage to blow the Fire out of the water if it wants to at the right price point. Of course Apple risks cannibalizing its' own products at the lower price. I'd suspect that they'll just let Kindle have their loss leader and go from there.
    Dec 10 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Neal Razi fires up the Apple (AAPL +0.5%) dividend chatter again after citing a string of companies that have stepped up to the plate recently to start paying out cash to shareholders for the first time. He argues that a slightly new direction at AAPL and its $26B cash hoard earnings close to nothing may finally tip the scales.  [View news story]
    I had the same reaction. I guess he's speaking of cash from current year earnings. As an investor I hope that Apple doesn't pay a dividend. I'd prefer to see strategic acquisitions in the supply chain. A dividend will reduce the per share price (although not dollar-for-dollar) and signal a culture change at Apple. Not sure that's a good idea.
    Dec 10 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There are plenty of reasons why PC sales were down 8% Y/Y during Black Friday week, writes Morgan's Katy Stanley, but the bottom line "is simply weaker end demand." The exception, as usual, is Apple (AAPL), where unit sales were 17% higher Y/Y.  [View news story]
    Go to any Starbucks or library and look around. You'll note that at least half of the computers in use are MacBooks. That's my informal market research on Apple's penetration in the PC market. On the other side of the coin, seeing the iPad is a bit of a rarity.
    Dec 10 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Horace Deidu is right, street estimates for Apple (AAPL) Q4 earnings ($9.75/share on revenue of $38B) are going to look woefully short. He's pegging iPhone sales growing 120% Y/Y - thanks to pent-up demand for the iPhone 4S - leading to earnings of $12.30 on $44.6B of sales.  [View news story]
    The iPad 3 projected to be released in February no doubt will be cutting into iPad sales this quarter. If Apple's EPS is anything north of $10 in the current quarter, look for the stock to be at $450 by February.
    Dec 10 09:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One of the reasons why Apple's (AAPL -0.5%) share price is cheap is because it's a megacap, Felix Salmon writes, and "the entire market for megacaps has been utterly miserable for the past decade." It therefore stands to reason that "Apple’s p/e has naturally shrunk as it has joined the ranks of the dinosaurs."  [View news story]
    AAPL's cheap because it's a mega-cap. Sounds like jumbo shrimp or driving on the parkway. "Apple's cheap because it's expensive." OK.
    Dec 7 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Not A Buy-And-Hold Investment? That's News To Me [View article]
    I look forward to hearing from the 12 people on the planet who haven't weighed in w/ their opinion on Apple's current valuation.
    Dec 7 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Growth Makes It The Perfect Value Stock [View article]
    I contend that if Apple didn't 'miss' (and if that's a miss, it's one that every other company would take every quarter) on 4th quarter earnings, it would be sitting at about $450 right now and the $400 resistance level would be a vague memory. On the downside, $360 seems to be a very strong support level.

    Unfortunately Apple's intrinsic value gets engulfed in the actions of program trading, hedge funds and the inifinite number of institutions/ETFs/et al that have AAPL bundled in their portfolios.
    Dec 7 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: P/E Debate Rages, But Sales Growth Will Fuel Next Rally [View article]
    Not another piece on Apple's fundamentals. Of course Apple is substantially underpriced on the fundamentals. Run the Graham formula using EPS and growth and you'll be astonished to find what Apple WOULD be worth purely on its fundamentals. Apple's price behavior has almost nothing to do w/ the fundamentals.

    It's a highly liquid stock, the favorite of hedge funds and program trading. It's a money machine for the computers scalping the spread. 90% or more of the trading volume on Apple is institutional/professi... trading. For the most part, the long institutions that'll be buying Apple have already done so. With their restrictions on percentage holdings per equity, they simply can't acquire much more without an expanding equity base. Apple is bundled in a gazillion different funds: S&P, Mega-Cap, Tech, US Growth, etc, etc, etc. To think that it's going to break loose from the pack and surge to a market cap double or so that of any other company is, I think, very wishful thinking.

    I'm long AAPL (its fundamentals are simply too strong not to be) and think that it has upside to maybe $500-$600, but that'll require a strong bullish market and a growing economy.
    Dec 7 07:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon’s (AMZN) Kindle Fire tablet, which went on sale last month, "has come out of the gates strong," and Evercore says its relatively cheap price tag could allow it to "vaporize" other for-profit Android tablet business models. Yet even as Amazon may account for half of all Android tablets by next year, Evercore says Amazon isn’t a real threat to the iPad (AAPL).  [View news story]
    2 restaurants side by side will generally perform better individually than they would w/o the other. The Kindle Fire creates new tablet users and a broader market. So Apple takes a smaller share of a broader market and ultimately sells more units. I'll take that. It has a relatively small share of the whole mobile phone market and seems to be getting by w/ the iPhone. Next subject.
    Dec 7 07:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is So Cheap [View article]
    When someone buys an iPhone, they do so to not just get a phone w/ a few extra features. They're buying into the Apple ecosystem. Everyone that I know w/ the iPhone has spent more downloading apps, songs, books than they did on the actual device. The iPhone is the preferred conduit into the Apple experience. Apple has share of mind. Users of Apple have been so for decades and will continue into the future. It may have the highest level of brand loyal of any company in the world. Unless Apple really screws up, I doubt they're going to suffer material attrition in their customer base.

    That being said. I can't see Apple becoming the trillion dollar company that some are forecasting without major growth in the economy. The reality of how the stock is traded and market dynamics in general will constrain its valuation growth to a significant extent. It's the most widely held stock by hedge funds. It's heavily hit by program trading. With ETFs, sector funds, large cap funds, it will move, to a substantial degree w/ the tech sector and the broad market. Apple's simply not going to be a trillion dollar company when the next largest market cap is $400 billion. That's just the reality of the market.
    Dec 6 08:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Exxon: Only One Is A True Long-Term Play [View article]
    One thing that I've learned when dealing w/ traders is that if someone brags about having made a certain amount of money on trades, you can be assured that he actually lost money.
    Dec 5 03:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Exxon: Only One Is A True Long-Term Play [View article]
    Just out of curiousity, why would you assume that if a stock takes a big drop in price, it then becomes a good value? I know many traders who only buy stocks at their tops. If you wait for a stock to bottom out before you go long, you'll get to enjoy the ride all the way down. Maybe you want to buy into RIMM, NetFlix, Kodak and American Airlines at their very nice current prices.
    Dec 5 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Exxon: Only One Is A True Long-Term Play [View article]
    Based on your recommendation I think I'll start buying Apple heavily at its current price. If the market is a zero sum game and you're on the downside of a trade, I feel very comfortable being on the other side. If you plan on re-buying in the low $300s, you'll either (1) be waiting a very long time to get your price (2) be buying into a broad market that is in free fall and will therefore be losing your shirt.
    Dec 5 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Exxon: Only One Is A True Long-Term Play [View article]
    Most of the volume on Apple stock is from institutions/program trading. It's the most widely held stock of hedge funds If you think that Apple is going to break out dramatically from the rest of the market, you don't understand market dynamics, stock bundling, ETFs, et al. By the fundamentals, Apple is worth perhaps double, maybe more, its current valuations. Apple's current price has nothing to do w/ its fundamentals.
    Dec 5 08:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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