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bailinnumberguy

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  • Apple Is Ripe For Another Sell-Off [View article]
    The iPad3 is expected to be out in February, expected to have higher demand than the iPad2. Never let the facts stand in the way of a good argument. iPhone 4S released in December? C'mon man, how about at least getting the dates right and maybe you'd have a bit more credibility.
    Dec 14, 2011. 07:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Ripe For Another Sell-Off [View article]
    A PE of 11 implies nothing. Amazon's PE ratio is 100+. Does that mean that investors are willing to sink their money into the stock to get a robust 1% growth rate? LinkedIn was over 3000. Did that imply growth of .03%?

    At best a PE ratio implies yield, but even that's fantasy.
    Dec 14, 2011. 07:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Guidance Is Still Conservative [View article]
    Guidance shmuidance. Valuation shmaluation. Apple's the most liquid stock in the market, making it target #1 for high frequency trading to scalp its narrow spreads and arbitrage its going price on futures exchanges. Add all the options contracts that are written on AAPL and you have the perfect storm for a stock that substantially underperforms its fundamentals.
    Dec 14, 2011. 07:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Ripe For Another Sell-Off [View article]
    So the fact that Apple's share price dropped 7% or so within 2 minutes of the earnings announcement was just a coincidence?

    You can draw some line in the sand at some random date and say that Apple has underperformed the market. 15 months or so ago, Apple was in the high 200s. Apple is basically flat since the market started on the roller coaster in late July. In that time, the company's founder retired and died. The roll out of the iPhone 4S was uninspiring and poorly timed.

    If you pay any attention to Apple, you can't conclude that the stock doesn't have iron-clad support at least at about $350. It floated down there around the time of Jobs' retirement, the S&P downgrade, the iPhone4S, et al and quickly bounced.
    Dec 13, 2011. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Apple Christmas Wish: Keep The iPad 2 And Bring Me A Sensible Dividend Policy [View article]
    Dividends aren't some magical value-added elixir falling from the sky. They're a return of equity. Once Apple becomes a dividend paying company, it signals to the investment community that it's parting ways w/ Steve Jobs' philosophy on the subject. That will not be well received. Any dividend not reinvested only hurts the company's market value.
    Dec 13, 2011. 05:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Properly Use Apple's Guidance To Accurately Forecast Earnings [View article]
    The most oversold and useless ratio is P/E. It reverses cause and effect. Is a stock a good value because its P/E is low or is its P/E low because it's a lousy value? I'd love to have some of the money back that I've invested in stocks w/ low multiples only to watch in horror as its price continued to drop. A company w/ negative earnings has a zero P/E ratio. That should be the stock that everyone's chasing if the P/E theory holds.

    Revenues are also overrated when looked at in a vacuum. I can create a company tomorrow and generate infinite revenues if I wanted to if I was willing to take a big loss on every sale.

    The most reliable measures in valuing a stock in my experience are margins (if they start compressing, get out!), earnings per share (if they're not growing, get out!), market share (if a company isn't the leader or a co-leader in its space, stay out!). Apple wins on all of these factors, so I'm long AAPL. God bless.


    Dec 13, 2011. 09:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Bullish Guidance [View article]
    What would happen if companies didn't issue any guidance and analysts didn't forecast any earnings? Investors would actually have to interpret actual earnings/revenues for themselves. Imagine that. The way the game works, analysts wield enormous sway over what a stock does post-earnings. How arms-length the analyst forecasts actually are is something we can speculate on. If you think companies don't meet certain analysts at the bar, you're probably naive.
    Dec 13, 2011. 07:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Goldman Sachs's A-List [View article]
    It's a minimum of $100 Million for any company. The table in the article shows the $2,700 Million for Apple.
    Dec 11, 2011. 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL +0.5%) will roll out the iPad 3 next February, Citi's Richard Gartner writes, unconcerned about Asian supply chain worries related to floods in Thailand that might have called the launch date into question: "Several sources have confirmed the timing of this launch, and there do not appear to be any significant technical hurdles remaining."  [View news story]
    It'll be interesting to see how Apple prices the iPad2 and if there's a smaller, cheaper tablet in the pipeline to poach the Kindle Fire market. Apple has the muscle and the technological leverage to blow the Fire out of the water if it wants to at the right price point. Of course Apple risks cannibalizing its' own products at the lower price. I'd suspect that they'll just let Kindle have their loss leader and go from there.
    Dec 10, 2011. 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Neal Razi fires up the Apple (AAPL +0.5%) dividend chatter again after citing a string of companies that have stepped up to the plate recently to start paying out cash to shareholders for the first time. He argues that a slightly new direction at AAPL and its $26B cash hoard earnings close to nothing may finally tip the scales.  [View news story]
    I had the same reaction. I guess he's speaking of cash from current year earnings. As an investor I hope that Apple doesn't pay a dividend. I'd prefer to see strategic acquisitions in the supply chain. A dividend will reduce the per share price (although not dollar-for-dollar) and signal a culture change at Apple. Not sure that's a good idea.
    Dec 10, 2011. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There are plenty of reasons why PC sales were down 8% Y/Y during Black Friday week, writes Morgan's Katy Stanley, but the bottom line "is simply weaker end demand." The exception, as usual, is Apple (AAPL), where unit sales were 17% higher Y/Y.  [View news story]
    Go to any Starbucks or library and look around. You'll note that at least half of the computers in use are MacBooks. That's my informal market research on Apple's penetration in the PC market. On the other side of the coin, seeing the iPad is a bit of a rarity.
    Dec 10, 2011. 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Horace Deidu is right, street estimates for Apple (AAPL) Q4 earnings ($9.75/share on revenue of $38B) are going to look woefully short. He's pegging iPhone sales growing 120% Y/Y - thanks to pent-up demand for the iPhone 4S - leading to earnings of $12.30 on $44.6B of sales.  [View news story]
    The iPad 3 projected to be released in February no doubt will be cutting into iPad sales this quarter. If Apple's EPS is anything north of $10 in the current quarter, look for the stock to be at $450 by February.
    Dec 10, 2011. 09:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One of the reasons why Apple's (AAPL -0.5%) share price is cheap is because it's a megacap, Felix Salmon writes, and "the entire market for megacaps has been utterly miserable for the past decade." It therefore stands to reason that "Apple’s p/e has naturally shrunk as it has joined the ranks of the dinosaurs."  [View news story]
    AAPL's cheap because it's a mega-cap. Sounds like jumbo shrimp or driving on the parkway. "Apple's cheap because it's expensive." OK.
    Dec 7, 2011. 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Not A Buy-And-Hold Investment? That's News To Me [View article]
    I look forward to hearing from the 12 people on the planet who haven't weighed in w/ their opinion on Apple's current valuation.
    Dec 7, 2011. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Growth Makes It The Perfect Value Stock [View article]
    I contend that if Apple didn't 'miss' (and if that's a miss, it's one that every other company would take every quarter) on 4th quarter earnings, it would be sitting at about $450 right now and the $400 resistance level would be a vague memory. On the downside, $360 seems to be a very strong support level.

    Unfortunately Apple's intrinsic value gets engulfed in the actions of program trading, hedge funds and the inifinite number of institutions/ETFs/et al that have AAPL bundled in their portfolios.
    Dec 7, 2011. 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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