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bailinnumberguy

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  • Is Apple On The Verge Of A 2008-Style Crash? [View article]
    AAPL at $225? Let's see. In 6 months or so, Apple will have about $100 cash per share. $225 - $100 = $125 per share. Extremely conservatively, if Apple earns $30-35 per share over the next few years, that's a P/E ratio of about 4 (ex-cash). That's a 25% yield. Seriously? In the foreseeable future, AAPL will not get anywhere close to $300 unless there's a total depression like market capitulation. I'd be very surprised if AAPL sustains levels below $350 for any period of time. Apple bounced off of $350 w/ the S&P disaster and w/ Jobs retirement announcement. Companies have intrinsic value. Unless its fundamentals suddenly tank for some extraordinary reason, the chances that AAPL's stock price gets below $250 are approximately zero.
    Nov 25, 2011. 10:11 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The Market Know About Apple's Announcement? [View article]
    You probably also believe in Santa Claus. I've worked in 3 public traded companies and if you think that insider information isn't routinely exchanged keep on dreaming....
    Mar 19, 2012. 07:23 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Apple Bubble Is Forming [View article]
    There's a joke about technical analysis that I love. A technical analyst is in the hospital and heavily medicated. His doctor shows him his EKG chart. The next morning he calls his broker and places an order for 1000 shares of EKG. Ba da bing.
    Mar 18, 2012. 11:52 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Flash Crash Signals Fraud In The Market For Apple Shares [View article]
    He's back. Once again the opinions are not backed by any positions in AAPL and the stock is being compared to SILVER. Any author who doesn't have a position in the stock that he's commenting on doesn't trust his own analysis and why should we?
    Mar 26, 2012. 07:35 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expecting Apple to Pull Back To $450 Before Going To $700 And Beyond [View article]
    I personally observed that 52 million iPhones and iPads were sold in a 3 month period and the pace of sales hasn't let up this quarter. I could be wrong, and this might be wild speculation, but I'd venture a guess that at least one of those buyers has a passing interest in Mountain Lion. I might be reaching, but at least one of those 52 million probably abandoned the Android platform.
    Feb 19, 2012. 09:26 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Flash Crash Signals Fraud In The Market For Apple Shares [View article]
    Oh I don't know, to make money? If it's unstable he can go heavy into some straddled option position. He's never had any position in AAPL and continues to write these sky-is-falling articles as the stock continues to surge. One man's bubble is another man's enormous bullish sentiment.
    Mar 26, 2012. 07:44 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook's Rotten Apple [View article]
    Apple stock price on Black Friday: $366. Apple stock price presently: $580.75. The company exceeded their own guidance. I'm not sure how they can control analyst expectations. Everyone knew that these are transitional quarters. Get back to us w/ your retraction after New Years.
    Jul 26, 2012. 08:15 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Analysts Still Raising EPS Estimates Even As Stock Falls [View article]
    How dumb is it that the estimates of analysts, whose projections are never even close to being accurate can effect a stock price based on whether the earnings beat or don't beat? Let's say AAPL posts EPS of $12.50. That's a substantial beat and the stock price would likely surge. If the analysts, for whatever reason project $13 w/ the same result, the stock price would tank.

    I just declared myself an AAPL analyst. I project eps of $4 per share this quarter. Hopefully they can beat this substantially and the share price might double!
    Apr 19, 2012. 11:08 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Worth More [View article]
    Thanks for the reminder of how many shares and at what price you'd bought Apple. I'd forgotten since I last read it yesterday.
    Jan 24, 2012. 10:15 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the bad news fully baked in? Apple (AAPL +3.6%), which closed yesterday trading around 7.4x FY13E EPS (exc. cash), has rallied back above $500 in spite of Pac Crest's downgrade. The company has received favorable notes today as well: Cowen says its checks lead it to believe Apple's smartphone share rose to ~23.5% in calendar Q4 from 16.4% in Q3. Some suppliers are also up: CRUS +4.5%. OVTI +1.4%. Sterne Agee is defending Skyworks (SWKS +3.5%) after meeting with its CFO. [View news story]
    When the share price moves down or up everyone thinks they have the answer as to why it happened. Everyone's a genius looking in the rear view mirror and pontificating. A year ago no one was arguing w/ any conviction that the share price would run to $700 in 2012. 3 months ago no one had that unshakeable conviction that the share price would test $500. Now all of these bears have crawled out of the caves and reminded us that they shorted the stock at $690 and never looked back. The best investors in the world confess that they can't predict what a stock will do in the very short term, but some guy w/ a keyboard and 25 shares of Apple stock has this magical clairvoyance. It's funny to observe if nothing else.
    Jan 16, 2013. 01:31 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason Apple Keeps Going Down [View article]
    In a few weeks, we're upon Black Friday, the launch of the iPhone 5 in China, etc. We went through the same ritual at about this time last year, when everyone figured it was over for Apple and the stock was seemingly stuck in the mud. This quarter and next quarter figure to dwarf last year's same quarters.

    On its fundamentals if Apple wasn't such a hugely traded and high market cap stock, it'd already have arrived at $1000 per share. The bear case against Apple is based on speculation of what could happen, not what is actually happening. I'll keep my money riding on hard facts rather than speculation until proven otherwise.
    Nov 9, 2012. 03:21 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The iPad Mini Will Benefit Apple's Gross Margins [View article]
    go back and read old comments and people were speculating on whether AAPL was overvalued at $350, $400, $500, $550, $600. All this armchair analysis between quarterly earnings and major product announcements is mainly a bunch of hot air. The recent sell-off has pretty much discounted most of an unlikely earnings miss. A substantial beat and the share price explodes and everyone pretends that they weren't bashing Apple just a few days earlier. Same comedy routine every quarter.
    Oct 20, 2012. 09:06 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Apple's Current Dip To Ride Its Likely Rise To $800 [View article]
    Apple has added almost as much market cap in the year since Steve Jobs died as it did in its entire history to that point. If Tim Cook is so distrusted, I hope it continues! Never let the facts interfere w/ a good argument.
    Sep 30, 2012. 02:34 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Pullback Might Be Worse Next Week [View article]
    I'm always reminded of a Warren Buffett quote whenever someone tries to predict what a given stock will do in the very short term. Warren says: "Anyone who thinks that he can predict what the market will do on any given day, I wouldn't want to be his partner but would love to be his broker." Every armchair quarterback thinks that he can explain the actions of the market and is always a genius looking back explaining what happened. Everyone was calling for a pullback and recommending taking profits when AAPL crossed $500. That was $100 ago. Glad I didn't take that advice. The only material sell-off last week was on Friday, options day. In late trading the stock was at about $608 w/ 15 minutes to go. I said, watch it'll close at $605 give or take a few pennies which is probably the level of least pain. Lo and behold, that's where it closed. Trying to interpolate ANYTHING from a stock's action on options expiry day in terms of a future projection is a waste of time. The Friday before Apple's last earnings announcement, which was monstrous, the stock dumped about 2 percent.

    Anyone predicting what's going to happen next week can be safely ignored. Apple could close at $590 on Monday or it could close at $630. Who knows?
    Apr 14, 2012. 10:50 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expecting Apple to Pull Back To $450 Before Going To $700 And Beyond [View article]
    So the author's analysis is: (1) Apple is primed for a re-trace down (2) After the re-trace it figures to go MUCH higher (3) In the very long run, the company isn't as well positioned as some others and could drop at some vague date years away. So we should short AAPL for a little while, then go long again after the retrace for a year or 2, but buy long-term puts or write long-term calls? Sounds like a very clear strategy.

    He mentions AMZN and GOOG as well. He has such courage in his convictions that he has no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
    Feb 19, 2012. 07:33 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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