Seeking Alpha

bailinnumberguy

bailinnumberguy
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View bailinnumberguy's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Is Apple On The Verge Of A 2008-Style Crash? [View article]
    AAPL at $225? Let's see. In 6 months or so, Apple will have about $100 cash per share. $225 - $100 = $125 per share. Extremely conservatively, if Apple earns $30-35 per share over the next few years, that's a P/E ratio of about 4 (ex-cash). That's a 25% yield. Seriously? In the foreseeable future, AAPL will not get anywhere close to $300 unless there's a total depression like market capitulation. I'd be very surprised if AAPL sustains levels below $350 for any period of time. Apple bounced off of $350 w/ the S&P disaster and w/ Jobs retirement announcement. Companies have intrinsic value. Unless its fundamentals suddenly tank for some extraordinary reason, the chances that AAPL's stock price gets below $250 are approximately zero.
    Nov 25, 2011. 10:11 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did The Market Know About Apple's Announcement? [View article]
    You probably also believe in Santa Claus. I've worked in 3 public traded companies and if you think that insider information isn't routinely exchanged keep on dreaming....
    Mar 19, 2012. 07:23 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Apple Bubble Is Forming [View article]
    There's a joke about technical analysis that I love. A technical analyst is in the hospital and heavily medicated. His doctor shows him his EKG chart. The next morning he calls his broker and places an order for 1000 shares of EKG. Ba da bing.
    Mar 18, 2012. 11:52 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    Michael Blair is purely click-bait. He's probably long AAPL.
    Jan 27, 2015. 05:08 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Analysis: Free Versus Levered Free Cash Flow [View article]
    This is a good analysis and discussion of Free Cash Flows and Levered Free Cash Flows. It doesn't tell the whole story though with respect to AAPL's 'declining' earnings. I found it a bit curious that you jumped from 2012 to 2014, skipping 2013. Here's AAPL's Net Income by Year since 2005:
    2005 - $1.33B
    2006 - $1.99B
    2007 - $3.5B
    2008 - $6.12B
    2009 - $8.24B
    2010 - $14.01B
    2011 - $25.92B
    2012 - $41.73B
    2013 - $37.04B
    2014 - $39.51B

    Obviously AAPL wasn't going to be able to sustain the earnings growth forever. The question is why did earnings decline from 2012 to 2013 and from 2012 to 2014.

    Heres why: R&D and D&A. Both have increased substantially. Research is up by $2.6B and Depreciation (and Amortization) is up by $4.7B. That indicates much greater investment in research and physical plant.

    Clearly AAPL isn't the growth company it once was, but the 'decline' in Net Income needs to be looked at a little bit more closely.
    Dec 21, 2014. 01:49 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Flash Crash Signals Fraud In The Market For Apple Shares [View article]
    He's back. Once again the opinions are not backed by any positions in AAPL and the stock is being compared to SILVER. Any author who doesn't have a position in the stock that he's commenting on doesn't trust his own analysis and why should we?
    Mar 26, 2012. 07:35 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Lays The Runway To $150 [View article]
    A Finance professor once told me that waiting for a pullback to get in on, or re-buy a stock is one of the silliest things you can do. (1) If you believe in the stock why wait until later to buy? You'd expect it to blow past its current level anyway and you're likely to be sitting on the sideline as it moves up. (2) Waiting for a pullback implies that you can predict and time the market, which no one can do. Even the greatest investors admit that they can't. (3) If you're waiting for a pullback you think it's moving down. Why don't you short it if you're so sure it's going down? You're not sure it's going down, are you?
    Jan 28, 2015. 12:42 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    Who cares about the AH? Professionals aren't sitting at their computers buying in the volatile after hours. Check again in 2 weeks.
    Jan 27, 2015. 04:56 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expecting Apple to Pull Back To $450 Before Going To $700 And Beyond [View article]
    I personally observed that 52 million iPhones and iPads were sold in a 3 month period and the pace of sales hasn't let up this quarter. I could be wrong, and this might be wild speculation, but I'd venture a guess that at least one of those buyers has a passing interest in Mountain Lion. I might be reaching, but at least one of those 52 million probably abandoned the Android platform.
    Feb 19, 2012. 09:26 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Microsoft Have More Growth Potential Than Apple? [View article]
    'But under Satya Nadella, who became Microsoft CEO about a year ago, that may be changing. Suddenly it's Microsoft that has momentum, potential and opportunity, while Apple seems to be slowing down.'

    I wouldn't drain the college fund to invest in a company with a new, largely unproven CEO. Microsoft is on the outside looking in on the emerging cloud-based computing. Their bread-and-butter was desktop operating systems in a client/server environment. They cornered the market on this and on-prem. servers are being abandoned. They have no competitive advantage here and very little customer stickiness.

    Apple on the other hand has incredible customer stickiness and an entire eco-system perfectly positioned to exploit cloud-based computing. Cook has now proven to be an outstanding CEO.

    Microsoft might have a nice, quiet, boring spot in many a portfolio, but it's really a no brainer which company is better positioned for the future.
    Jan 24, 2015. 12:08 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Prelude To A Year Of Remarkable Growth [View article]
    All these comments from the brilliant market timers above probably has a lot of people rolling their eyes as they read the boasting. "I sold at $119 a few months ago because I knew it was about to go down. Bought again at $105. Sold again at $114. Bought again at $106." OK, sure. We'd be more impressed if you bought it 7 years ago and didn't make a single move since.
    Jan 21, 2015. 10:21 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Flash Crash Signals Fraud In The Market For Apple Shares [View article]
    Oh I don't know, to make money? If it's unstable he can go heavy into some straddled option position. He's never had any position in AAPL and continues to write these sky-is-falling articles as the stock continues to surge. One man's bubble is another man's enormous bullish sentiment.
    Mar 26, 2012. 07:44 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Lays The Runway To $150 [View article]
    Those sharp moves up that you'll see in spurts tomorrow are the shorts jumping overboard. If you're short with all the momentum behind the stock you're nuts.
    Jan 27, 2015. 11:17 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple beats estimates, guides in-line [View news story]
    Apple has enough cash to buy Greece.
    Jan 27, 2015. 05:03 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Whisper Number Showing Confidence [View article]
    74.5 million iPhone. $3.06. Revenue awesome. It's a MONSTER!
    Jan 27, 2015. 04:31 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,166 Comments
1,581 Likes