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bailinnumberguy

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  • Setting Up Apple's Amazing 2015 [View article]
    I'm always long AAPL, but I just don't see masses of people spending $500 on a watch. The iPhone and iPad were major game changers. An Apple TV has the potential to be one if it ever arrives. A watch? It's just another app container w/ an itsy-bitsy screen. I hope I'm wrong, but my circle of friends and contacts don't have a lot of interest in acquiring this device at that price point.
    Dec 26, 2014. 01:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Analysis: Free Versus Levered Free Cash Flow [View article]
    I'd argue that every stock is always fairly valued all the time. The price always floats to the level where a buyer and seller are matched. Whether it's overvalued, fair valued or undervalued is irrelevant so long as sellers and buyers meet at a level above or below where you want it to be. You can crunch numbers until your head explodes but it's rare to find a price that correlates cleanly to whatever analysis you do.
    Dec 21, 2014. 02:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Analysis: Free Versus Levered Free Cash Flow [View article]
    This is a good analysis and discussion of Free Cash Flows and Levered Free Cash Flows. It doesn't tell the whole story though with respect to AAPL's 'declining' earnings. I found it a bit curious that you jumped from 2012 to 2014, skipping 2013. Here's AAPL's Net Income by Year since 2005:
    2005 - $1.33B
    2006 - $1.99B
    2007 - $3.5B
    2008 - $6.12B
    2009 - $8.24B
    2010 - $14.01B
    2011 - $25.92B
    2012 - $41.73B
    2013 - $37.04B
    2014 - $39.51B

    Obviously AAPL wasn't going to be able to sustain the earnings growth forever. The question is why did earnings decline from 2012 to 2013 and from 2012 to 2014.

    Heres why: R&D and D&A. Both have increased substantially. Research is up by $2.6B and Depreciation (and Amortization) is up by $4.7B. That indicates much greater investment in research and physical plant.

    Clearly AAPL isn't the growth company it once was, but the 'decline' in Net Income needs to be looked at a little bit more closely.
    Dec 21, 2014. 01:49 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Does The Party End In 2015? [View article]
    No one ever talks about the real power of AAPL. Follow the money. It's the company's cash position that makes it impregnable. The company has a ridiculous amount of liquid assets, over $150 billion. They can acquire any company that they want with little fuss. They can buy limitless advertising, swallow up smaller companies, do whatever they want with all that liquidity. Money makes the world go round and Apple is probably the greatest money machine there's ever been.
    Dec 18, 2014. 03:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why The Current Pullback Is Good [View article]
    Days like the last 2 are why you short AAPL at your own risk. You could see the whip-saws yesterday as prices were flying all over the place as shorts rushed to cover. A few years back I tried to time the highs in AAPL and short it. Not a good strategy for the most traded stock in the world. When the short squeezes come you get killed.
    Dec 18, 2014. 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Pullback To Strongly Consider [View article]
    I'm an AAPL bull but using an annual dividend yield that increases from 1.58% to 1.71% to recommend a buy on a stock that can go up or down 40 or 50% in a year is perhaps not the most compelling argument.
    Dec 15, 2014. 07:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Short Apple? [View article]
    Shorting a company like AAPL is swimming against the tide and hoping for the best. A steady diet of that behavior will clean out your trading account. I love when someone takes or is given credit for being right on some past prediction. I can make 10 predictions and I'm pretty sure I'd get at least 1 of them right. I can direct you to that 1 correct one and look like a genius.
    Dec 11, 2014. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Between Icahn And A Much Harder Rock [View article]
    Icahn usually can have his way w/ companies that he gets involved with. As David Einhorn found out, Apple management is going to do what they're going to do and the haranguing of significant investors isn't going to move the needle even slightly.
    Jan 29, 2014. 03:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: Can Apple Top Earnings Expectations? [View article]
    When Icahn says it's a no brainer what he's really saying is that he's bought all the shares he's going to buy and he needs others to come in behind him to pump up his shares.
    Jan 28, 2014. 12:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: Can Apple Top Earnings Expectations? [View article]
    Everyone who sold off to drive it down $40 a share apparently doesn't agree w/ your assessment.
    Jan 28, 2014. 12:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: All Systems Go For 2014 [View article]
    Are analysts still on this forward earnings kick w/ Apple? It doesn't seem to matter w/ Amazon, where if you look at their forward earnings the stock should be trading at about 10% of its current valuation. Take Carl Icahn out of the picture and the stock is probably $100 lower today. Investors were eaten alive dreaming of the stock's inevitable run to $1000 based on similar projections based on its low multiple. There'll be a lot of bumps in the road before Apple gets traction w/ China Mobile. I have some direct experience w/ that company, which isn't one giant monolith but is spread out provincially across China. Each principality needs to be dealt w/ on its own terms. Investors beware.
    Dec 25, 2013. 12:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn Spells The End Of An Era At Apple [View article]
    Icahn knows that most investors are buffoons. He buys all the AAPL stock he's gonna buy then let's it slip out that he has a large holding and the stock is substantially undervalued. He's probably in Apple for a quick hit and knows how to influence the share price like no one else. What's he gonna say, it's overvalued? All the sheep fall in line and start buying shares. Once this latest surge exhausts itself, it becomes a dream shorting scenario.
    Aug 13, 2013. 09:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why An Apple/China Mobile Deal Is Imminent [View article]
    The deal has been imminent for 4 years already. China Mobile has a huge subscriber base, but it isn't one big centralized company. It's made up of a collection of local interest each of which must be negotiated w/ separately. There will never be a single China Mobile deal. If they come on board w/ Apple at all, it'll be in small pieces.
    Aug 2, 2013. 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Significantly Undervalued And Poised For A Bull Run [View article]
    Apparently no one was paying attention when Apple corrected from its stratospheric $700 levels. A big bull run on Apple shares is simply not happening. Institutions still have heavy holdings but there's significant consensus that the AAPL growth story is pretty much over. The time to buy Apple was when the iPhone first came out and then again w/ the introduction of the iPad. Tim Cook is a competent, rational manager but where is the innovation? Nothing of note since Jobs left the scene.
    Aug 2, 2013. 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Hold On Tight And Don't Play Wall Street's Game [View article]
    No one disputes that there is room for Apple in the global economy. What is in dispute is the prevailing $400B market cap
    Mar 18, 2013. 05:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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