Matithyahu

Matithyahu
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  • BlackBerry: Digging Into The Q2 FY2014 Earnings Report  [View article]
    I think that everybody who is invested in BBRY has been played by this clown of a CEO. The only analogy I can think of is in trading--trying to catch a falling knife. You put your trade in to buy well below market, and after a while it hits and you think, "I'm a genius!" And it lingers, moves up a bit, but not near the target. And then it tanks over the course of the entire trading session, and you feel really stupid that you thought you were smart enough to catch the trade at a low.

    So too, Heins. He was slashing costs, and we thought, "Genius!--look at him preserve cash!" But the fact is, the company was doomed--not because of his leadership, but no thanks to it--and his cost cutting of a year ago wasn't nearly enough, because the revenue is simply not coming in. And that's the foolish part--there is no way to cut costs enough if there is no marketing.
    Sep 30, 2013. 02:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shareholder Inequality: Fairfax's Other Motivations In Its Bid For BlackBerry  [View article]
    No, I'm not joking. I think that, like anybody, Watsa can make mistakes. My understanding of the deal is that in all likelihood he will get paid around $150 million dollars if the deal does not go through due to being outbid. He is looking for other people to put up around $4 billion to buy the company--a very unlikely possibility.

    Frankly, the fact that you would mention that he believed in the company at $40 a share is strange--that was a long time ago. He should have a very good idea of what the company is doing since he was on the board up until 1 month ago.

    Finally, value investor or not, I find it hard to believe that value investing is possible in the tech industry. I believe Watsa is generally considered a value investor, but I'm not sure that matters in this case. The fact is, the Graham concept of value investing originated at a time where PP&E were the main assets of companies selling at discounts. Either that or, say, a bank selling for less than book value (in an era where toxic investments like last decade didn't exist). BBRY's main assets are intangible and in a fiercely competitive industry where R&D is required to stay relevant, calculating "value" is virtually impossible.
    Sep 27, 2013. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shareholder Inequality: Fairfax's Other Motivations In Its Bid For BlackBerry  [View article]
    Yes. I actually think this "bid" for the company is Watsa's attempt to recoup some of his losses as a shareholder.
    Sep 26, 2013. 06:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Buy Now Or Buy It Cheaper Later?  [View article]
    That is, $6 per share. wow, what a poor sentence.
    Sep 16, 2013. 09:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Buy Now Or Buy It Cheaper Later?  [View article]
    There are 500MM shares, not 1B, so $3B in cash translates to $6B in market value.
    Sep 15, 2013. 02:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Shut It Down  [View article]
    I think that, once again, the problem is management. On the one hand, I understand not divulging everything because of the intense competition in the market. On the other hand, I don't understand management's direction. I think that BBRY can still compete, but frankly, I don't understand their business strengths anymore in terms of how they fit into the marketplace and monetize.

    That is, the can compete, but will they? Does management have a clear strategy for making money?

    M@
    Jul 21, 2013. 05:46 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Shut It Down  [View article]
    This comment is worthless--given the significant changes in the marketplace, the author is completely justified in changing his outlook. I don't agree with him, but I understand what he is saying and respect his right to say it.
    Jul 21, 2013. 05:44 AM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • While Digitimes reports of a pickup in BB10-related (BBRY -3.3%) component orders, Pac Crest's James Faucette claims Asian supply chain checks indicate BB10 phone production "remains well in excess of current sell-through demand." Faucette, who aired similar comments a month ago, thinks combined sell-through for the Q10/Z10 are "well below" 500K/month, while production has remained in the 1.5M-2M/month range, though a June slowdown is expected. He thinks there's potential for a write-down similar to the $752M charge taken on BB7/PlayBook inventory last year.  [View news story]
    Wow, it's windy in here.
    Jun 23, 2013. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • While Digitimes reports of a pickup in BB10-related (BBRY -3.3%) component orders, Pac Crest's James Faucette claims Asian supply chain checks indicate BB10 phone production "remains well in excess of current sell-through demand." Faucette, who aired similar comments a month ago, thinks combined sell-through for the Q10/Z10 are "well below" 500K/month, while production has remained in the 1.5M-2M/month range, though a June slowdown is expected. He thinks there's potential for a write-down similar to the $752M charge taken on BB7/PlayBook inventory last year.  [View news story]
    Don't understand the "article." My understanding of production vs. current sales is that there are still many markets where the phones haven't been released. I believe that global demand for a BBRY phone is in the range of 30-50 million units in the 12 months since the Z10 was first released.

    I base this on the 80 million people who are current customers, virtually all of which are BB6-7 phone owners. I believe that about 5-10 million of these are high end customers, and the rest are middle/low end customers.

    I also think that the company is undergoing a major business focus restructuring to "mobile computing." I don't know what that is, but I think Heins does, and I think Heins is very capable.
    May 31, 2013. 06:08 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Thinking Ahead With BBM Channels  [View article]
    I think in the case of BBRY, the only way to really look at the company from a long term perspective now is to look at the CEO. While we all have our opinions about the future of mobile--a future clouded with uncertainty--the real question is, who can deliver?

    I have a lot of respect for Heins--more so than any CEO in hi-tech right now. And a bet on BBRY, honestly, really depends on Heins.
    May 23, 2013. 04:15 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Bullish On News Of Q10 Release  [View article]
    How about this for an idea: Steve Jobs was the best CEO in the industry, and today I believe that torch has been passed to Thorsten Heins. Heins has coined the phrase "mobile computing"--and if not coined it, then has certainly used it repeatedly to describe his vision of where BBRY is headed.

    In any event, I believe that long term prospects for a tech company are deeply rooted in management. And I think TH is the best CEO in the industry.
    Apr 30, 2013. 02:22 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung KNOX Indefinetly Delayed - Vaporware?  [View instapost]
    The real joke here isn't that KNOX isn't available, or that it (probably) won't be very good--anybody with a pulse knew this.

    The joke is . . . where is the negative press? Had I not read a totally different article that referenced this article, I would never have known that KNOX was delayed.

    M@
    Apr 29, 2013. 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has BlackBerry's Smartphone Business Gotten Dumb?  [View article]
    I have to say it--when 1/3 of the posts in an article are from the author defending himself against any and all criticism, it is almost a sure sign that the motive for writing the article was ego-driven to begin with.

    Case in point--the brain scanner post above.

    Dude, you wrote your piece, let people comment, and just leave it alone.

    I will say that divesting the handset business might be a good idea, and I agree that it is reminiscent of IBM. However, there is a major difference between IBM and BBRY--IBM PCs ran Windows, whereas BBRY runs a BBRY developed OS.

    As far as I know, IBM still builds their own mainframes and develop their own OS for them.
    Apr 15, 2013. 08:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Letting You In On A Secret  [View article]
    The company has filed two complaints with the SEC and the TSE regarding the return rates reported by DF.

    Obviously I have no data, but if I had to choose who to believe, I would say that Heins' record is clean, so I am likely to take him at his word. Plus, if the reports were true, why make a big deal out of it, only to have it blow up?

    I'll wait for the findings, but my guess is that DF is out of line.
    Apr 15, 2013. 02:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: High Margins Are The Key To Success  [View article]
    Being short BBRY costs money. For an institution, to manipulate (legally) the stock, this also costs money. At some point, either the fundamentals will justify the low price, or will not. And what's nice about a market with so many players, collusion is very difficult, especially when there is such a benefit to being the first short to cover.

    I agree with those who have explained the end of quarter behavior of the stock as simply that--end of quarter behavior. And on top of that, options were expiring.

    In the short term, institutions can throw a lot of money at a stock. But they can't do it forever, and as long as BBRY continues to put up good numbers, the stock will eventually follow.
    Mar 30, 2013. 05:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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