waldipup

Gaza War: Expect a Spike in Oil, Gold

There is no reason to make an observation that gold will rise , or that oil will rise , if the mideast conflict widens.

The current conflict is limited such that it should have little effect on either.

The likelyhood of a widening conflict based on the current circumstances are extemely low -

Virtually the same as at any other point in time.

So I dont think the premise of the article warrants it's being written in the first place.

Why $140/Barrel Crude is Unsustainable

What would it do to your analysis if war broke out in the mideast and Iran closed the straits of hormuz?

Would the price still go down?

Or many other alternate possible events

(All of which are relevant , as evidenced by their being partly built in ,right now, to the oil price).

200 would not be out of the question , and a far cry from the present 140 , regardless of the l/t fundamentals.

My point is that a time/price analysis can be done at any time , and it won't necessarily reflect whether prices have peaked or not.

And right now , nobody has any freakin idea which way the next direction is after this "drop" to the 130's , or maybe lower.

All the analysis in the world won't accurately tell you when "peak oil" will kick in , or if an event will raise or lower the price tomorrow.

The only thing we do know is that if you're not in now , you've missed the boat , so jumping in at these levels can be risky regardlerss of the reward potential.

So , in that case - DO NOTHING .

If the price goes up , tough luck , you missed this one -

Try something else when it's cheap .

If the price drops appreciably -

Take some bites at positions at what appears to be intermediate term support and hope for the best.

Is Invading Venezuela a Good Way Out of an Oil Crisis?

Seeking Alpha is a decent site.

And now it's polluted with this crap.

Taking potshots at the Democrats , you say?

They are MORONS.

No logical common sense to the crap they say.

We invaded Kuwait , but didn't take their oil.

We are NOT going to invade Venezuela ,
unless they start building nukes and threatening us -


And if we did , we wouldn't take their oil anyway.

Anyone notice the international bidding and contracting for the oil and gas in Iraq?

Japan , Russia , China - even Iran are making deals for Iranian resources.

How come "Mish" forgets to adress that?

Stupid childish morons.