waldipup

Freeport McMoRan, For Copper's Comeback

I disagree.

Prices are not cheap , and in fact quite high on this stock , and about to test longer term resistance above.

I'd wait for a more substantial drop , or look for cheaper companies in the sector.

Copper and Markets Trending in Same Direction

"Copper is now closer to a bottom than a top"


Not according to the chart provided.

Copper has always bottomed in the .50's - .60's , something I am aware of without the chart.

And it has always topped in the 1.40 area.

So now that we are down to that 1.40 area , "We are closer to a bottom than a top"?

Why is the historical top area now "the bottom"?

I understand that we have clearly broken above this long term former resistance to higher prices, and so dropping back down to it should provide strong resistance now to lower prices-

But we have no idea if a likely bounce will be met with repeated assaults and an eventual breakdown , or if this will be "the" bottom.

"But that .60 area is no longer valid - it is long in the past , we will never go that low again".

The above is not a current quote -

It is what they said each time in the past that Copper hit the 1.40 top.

We were at .60 in 2002 .

Real Estate prices are back to what they were in 2002 .

Copper cant do the same?

Please understand that I'm not saying it will , or making predictions .

I'm just saying that hitting long time resistance (at what is historically high , peak levels!) doesn't mean we're at "the" bottom -

It just means immediate further downside will be resisted .

The fundamentals will decide if we eventually go lower.

I do not agree with the authors fundamental assessment.

It's just the usual blah blah blah.

How long will the downturn last?

Will Copper still be used in huge amounts?

I'm doing my heating system right now using PLASTIC PEX TUBING instead of Copper - much cheaper and easier.

I do , however , agree with money management , patience , and discipline ,

Investing incrementally in case we are near a bottom ,

Leaving cash for continued investment at lower levels should they occur .

Just remember per "It cant go any lower" that when oil was at 1.40 , all you heard was "it's going to 2 (or higher) , we're running out of oil , it's peak oil , stupid" ,

And then when it dropped instead ,

"We cant go any lower than 1.15 " , then "1" , then ".80" , then .....

You get the picture.

Be wary of those that "know" .

Freeport-McMoran: Cuts Production; Suspends Dividend

"Why continue to sell its valuable copper at $1.60 a pound when the longer term intrinsic value is much higher?"

Everybody is losing their money because of this type of thinking.

Commodities have all spiked to new highs and then crashed , so

now 1.60 is too cheap to sell Copper.

Except for this spike to 4 bucks , and a couple in the past to hi 1's - 2 bucks , 1.60 is the highest price Copper has ever been to sell at.

But now 4 bucks is its "intrinsic value" and 1.60 is too cheap.

Sure , hold some for the long run in case dramatically higher prices set in as a spec to hit a home run with.

But for the bulk of your investment capital/risk , look at long term prices and ignore hype that ignores average long term prices and only points to the sky as a goal.

1.60 is high enough for Copper.

Soybeans are down to 7 from 15. So are they "way below their intrinsic value" also?