waldipup

Over-Bought Means Over-Good for Gold

"after gapping up strongly (the price will have to trade down into the blank area of that gap at some point)"

Not necessarily.

Everyone is picking tops.

Sooner or later someone will be right.

So far , it's been no one.

Dont sell your core position and then say "it's so and so's fault for telling me it was the top".

Guess who's fault it really is?

Roubini Hates Gold: Is He Wrong Again?

Just hold your gold , or at least most of it if you want to take some profits to average yourself in the event of a drop.

This isn't even about gold -

It's about the fact that every freakin time there's a historic bull market move , someone's always there trying to convince you to "get out".

Dont take the bait. I bought silver at 4 bucks and gold at 300's and have been listening to that stuff for years now.

Did the naysayers buy at 4 and 300's and hold?

If Gold Bugs' Fantasies Came True

What is the alternative?

Dont buy gold?

If the worst of the worst happens , gold might not help.

Or , in that scenario , it may save your life.

And if less than the worst of the worst happens , it might generally be quite financially beneficial.

I dont think the question is if one should buy , or just what it is that will happen.

I think the question is what is the downside to buying as opposed to not.

At minimum ,workin out better than Lehman Bros. stock.

NYSE Runs Out of Gold Bars: What Happens Next?

Is the volume of mini contracts so substantial that paper receipts make a difference?

Running out of a product is not the main issue -

Running out of gold bars per se is.

A "shortage" of a specific product is transactional in nature only , not a true "default" scenario.

An overall shortage of gold is .

Gold Bulls Should Stay Away from Gold Stocks

This article is an epochal one -

It represents what is probably the best indicator that it is time to -

BUY GOLD STOCKS!

With the stocks beaten down and , historically to gold , cheap ,

It is not surprising that gold stock epitaph's will be written.

And that is usually just about when (Hallelulljah!!) - they rise .

Of course , this does not mean to blindly buy anything -

As is always the case , the greater return potential is fraught with the greater risk of choosing the correct ones.

Some have , just since the recent bottom , acheived greater returns than the gold has in its entire bull run !

But IMO , the real answer is just so very simple -

It's the same as it always is -

If you want to play a sector - ANY sector -

You must diversify within it -

That means some gold and silver, diversified in various forms , and some gold and silver stocks , carefully chosen .

Who can disagree with this overall theory!

The End of Gold, Part Two

"Thank you all for your comments"

????

Does that include the one asking you to supersize his fries?

If investors dont buy gold , what are their alternatives?

More t-bonds? real estate? GE ?

Gold buying thrives in an environment of uncertainty.

Heard all the stories of people not even willing to put their money in banks?

That's evidence of uncertainty.

Regardless of the inflation / deflation argument -

Eventually , unavoidable inflation WILL propel gold up to new extremes -

But for now , while still in the "pump-priming" stage ,

That which will cause gold to rise to reasonably higher levels is the uncertainty and fear -


Mainstream investors en masse putting , for the first time , "just a little bit" of their portfolio into gold ,

Coupled with the meager supply available to accomodate that huge cumulative increase in investment demand .

It is true that this article is timely -

Gold is banging against its last downtrendline from last summer's alltime high right now ,

And if it doesn't break above that line quickly, then shorting /long selling at this trendline , coupled with investors waiting on the sidelines for a breakout before entering (wise move) could result in a test of gold's uptrending channel's lower channel line.

If that occurs , THAT is the ultimate entry point (or if it breaks out to the upside now ).

Many tech factors culminate in the mid 800's , so any consideration of gold dropping substantially would be premature unless that area is breached to the downside.

Pamela Aden: Ready for a Rebound?

Northgate's income is not endless and open ended like GG and the other big boys.

Price to sales and price to cashflow are not ratios representing profits.

If it is being mispriced , it is being done so along with many others in the same boat.

Gaza War: Expect a Spike in Oil, Gold

There is no reason to make an observation that gold will rise , or that oil will rise , if the mideast conflict widens.

The current conflict is limited such that it should have little effect on either.

The likelyhood of a widening conflict based on the current circumstances are extemely low -

Virtually the same as at any other point in time.

So I dont think the premise of the article warrants it's being written in the first place.

President of Euro Pacific Capital on Gold and the Dollar

The previous comment , no. 1385 by the commenter , offers nothing.

First off , I believe this article is an old interview , yet dated Dec. 30 .

Why not clarify the time frame of the actual interview?

Second , since it is old , the dollar is now quite lower , making the first comment look silly , even though it was anyway ,

And the article itself , though always nice to read Schiff , not timely.

Enlightening the Gold Bugs

Can the author inform us of his position on gold and the dollar during the period that gold rose from 250 to over 1000 , silver from 4 to over 20 , and the dollar dropped from 125 to 70's?

What were the expectations during that period?

To those who have done so , might I suggest that it is more persuasive to ridicule "gold bugs" at a point when gold has not been the best performing asset for the past 7 or so years , and one of the few not showing an 08 loss? I'm just saying , those little things tend to dilute the argument against em.

How you can print endless trillions of dollars and go , as a result , into a multi year uptrend confounds me.

I guess , as has been the case in the recent short term , anything can happen ( in the short term) ,

But I'd

1) Bet on gold , not the buck , and

2) At minimum , reserve judgement until the charts confirm that the recent drop does not represent a downtrend resumption with the more recent spike up not just a correction , before concluding that the endless printing of a currency has no effect on its value over time.

Will COMEX Default on Gold and Silver?

I agree that Comex is the way to go to take delivery , in mini contract form if necessary for smaller players.

This is the most economical way to buy , especially with current dealer markup premiums.

But I think it should be done quickly , without long term exposure to the futures market position , and not taken in certificate form but in actual metal .



Despite my agreement per the rational analysis of the articles concepts ,

I nonetheless believe that there is a reasonably high percentage chance that smaller players will have their delivery request positions compromised
as demand increases and available supplies decrease .

What is my analytical basis for saying this?

I can only tell you how you will (may) end up getting screwed after the fact , at which time knowing really wont matter anyway.

Counterparty Risk May Lead to Potential Squeeze in Gold Market

"if market participants with futures position on New York's Comex exchange decide not to roll over their positions, because of concerns about counterparty risk and opt for physical delivery instead."

I agree, but would point out that many dont have the cash for that , and only play the futures market based on margin trading -

Unless we are talking about a point in time per delivery month when full value has been required to remain in a position?

High Premiums on Silver? Better to Buy Gold

I'm not saying iwhich is the case for sure , but the above responses disagree with the premise of which entity represents the true price of silver without any explanatory
counter analysis.

It would be incumbent to explain away the premise that there is a shortage of smaller minted silver entities to counter the argument that Comex is the correct value.

If you cant do so, then it's just opinion as to whether the Comex or the cash market

represents the true price.

Poisunelly , I'm waiting to see how much physical offtake there is from the Comex on the Dec. 08 , and the March 09 delivery months-

No way the true price is double the Comex price and savvy investors of the larger variety are not going to glom up the silver at half price via inexpensive Comex delivery.

So lets let the market tell us who's right -

If nobody takes delivery , it would be hard to argue that the high premium prices are for real , and not just due to the fabrication supply/demand
imbalance.

If silver flies out of Comex inventory faster than a speeding bullet , then we've been looking at an artificially depressed Comex price , and that would then be hard to argue against.

Gold Bugs Beware

Bad link from above - If this doesn't work either , go to Resource Investor site and find Arensberg's article - worth the time.


www.resourceinvestor.c...

www.resourceinvestor.c...

Gold Bugs Beware

"Take a look at the gold COT's."

OK.

This is what I found :



See at link for full article / graphs :

www.resourceinvestor.c...


Got Gold Report – COMEX Commercials Least Net Short Gold In Years
By Gene Arensberg
10 Nov 2008 at 08:22 AM GMT-05:00

The big news this week is that the largest of the largest traders for gold futures, the commercial traders on the COMEX, are now the least net short gold they have been in years.


----------------------...

ATLANTA (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Regardless of whether or not the world is near the end of the giant financial “Charlie Foxtrot” we have all endured up to now, the largest of the largest traders of gold futures now have the fewest bets that the U.S. dollar price of gold will fall further than they have had in years.

As of Tuesday, November 4, traders classed by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as commercial held a collective net short position (LCNS) of just 76,406 out of a total 303,908 contracts on the COMEX, division of NYMEX in New York. A net short position means that the trader profits if the commodity goes lower in price.

Yes, the current COMEX commercial gold net short positioning is the lowest in years. Indeed, we have to go all the way back to June 7, 2005 to find a reporting week which shows a lower LCNS (67,052 then), back when gold closed at $424.87.

That doesn’t mean that gold can’t go lower still, it can. It just means that the big dogs in the futures trading arena are not positioning like they think it will. To the contrary.

More about that very interesting and potentially bullish development below in the Gold COT section, including what it might signal the commercials’ expect, but first, let’s look at the gold and silver ETFs and the CFTC Commitments of Traders Reports (COT).


With the huge disparity in Comex price (low) , and physical price (high) , I wonder if many are buying on the Comex to take delivery at a lower price-

Except that the shorts (in silver , concentrated among a few banks only ) ,

Dont have the metal to deliver?

Wha happens den?