waldipup

NYSE Runs Out of Gold Bars: What Happens Next?

Is the volume of mini contracts so substantial that paper receipts make a difference?

Running out of a product is not the main issue -

Running out of gold bars per se is.

A "shortage" of a specific product is transactional in nature only , not a true "default" scenario.

An overall shortage of gold is .

The End of Gold, Part Two

"Thank you all for your comments"

????

Does that include the one asking you to supersize his fries?

If investors dont buy gold , what are their alternatives?

More t-bonds? real estate? GE ?

Gold buying thrives in an environment of uncertainty.

Heard all the stories of people not even willing to put their money in banks?

That's evidence of uncertainty.

Regardless of the inflation / deflation argument -

Eventually , unavoidable inflation WILL propel gold up to new extremes -

But for now , while still in the "pump-priming" stage ,

That which will cause gold to rise to reasonably higher levels is the uncertainty and fear -


Mainstream investors en masse putting , for the first time , "just a little bit" of their portfolio into gold ,

Coupled with the meager supply available to accomodate that huge cumulative increase in investment demand .

It is true that this article is timely -

Gold is banging against its last downtrendline from last summer's alltime high right now ,

And if it doesn't break above that line quickly, then shorting /long selling at this trendline , coupled with investors waiting on the sidelines for a breakout before entering (wise move) could result in a test of gold's uptrending channel's lower channel line.

If that occurs , THAT is the ultimate entry point (or if it breaks out to the upside now ).

Many tech factors culminate in the mid 800's , so any consideration of gold dropping substantially would be premature unless that area is breached to the downside.

Pamela Aden: Ready for a Rebound?

Northgate's income is not endless and open ended like GG and the other big boys.

Price to sales and price to cashflow are not ratios representing profits.

If it is being mispriced , it is being done so along with many others in the same boat.

Will COMEX Default on Gold and Silver?

I agree that Comex is the way to go to take delivery , in mini contract form if necessary for smaller players.

This is the most economical way to buy , especially with current dealer markup premiums.

But I think it should be done quickly , without long term exposure to the futures market position , and not taken in certificate form but in actual metal .



Despite my agreement per the rational analysis of the articles concepts ,

I nonetheless believe that there is a reasonably high percentage chance that smaller players will have their delivery request positions compromised
as demand increases and available supplies decrease .

What is my analytical basis for saying this?

I can only tell you how you will (may) end up getting screwed after the fact , at which time knowing really wont matter anyway.

Counterparty Risk May Lead to Potential Squeeze in Gold Market

"if market participants with futures position on New York's Comex exchange decide not to roll over their positions, because of concerns about counterparty risk and opt for physical delivery instead."

I agree, but would point out that many dont have the cash for that , and only play the futures market based on margin trading -

Unless we are talking about a point in time per delivery month when full value has been required to remain in a position?

Where Are Precious Metals Heading?

There is no question whether gold should rise on a fundamental level.

The cost of a slice of pizza has risen more over the years due to dollar dilution than gold has.

But yet gold is fairly priced/overpriced?

The real question is how long can the gov't. keep printing money and still retain credibility.

No longer?

Another year?

Another ten years?

Nobody knows.

How can you keep bailing out financial entities for countless billions of dollars , fund social security , medicare/medicaid , and the myriad of other government expenses (including interest expense)

and just keep on truckin?

Anybody see the vertical increase in gov't. spending and borrowing over the last decade?

How do you justify that without an income equivalent?

But nonetheless , though the goldbugs (like me!) are fundamentally correct , (Larry Kudlow notwithstanding) ,

the real question is the timing , and being correct on the fundamentals but a decade or more off on the timing of how long a long term powerful government can keep on chooglin' on fumes could possibly be tantamount to being wrong "As Time Goes By".

Why I'm Still Holding Onto Gold

I'm holding GG since 5 Doc - have never sold one share.

I'm not smart enough to time/trade the market , so I just have to do the best I can with my limited capabilities.


GG has just broken not only its previous high , but a reverse H&S pointing to an initial goal of 55 .

Since 45 is the breakout point , it woulde be a fortuitous spot to take a shot , either now or on a later retracement back there ( to test the neckline ).

Gold itself has also broken out of a H&S bottom on Friday , with an initial goal of -

Around the all-time highs.

Buying around 920 or so is a conservative play because if the H&S breakout fails , you can exit below the neckline and consider it a conservative , low risk , low cost trade.

If the neckline holds , the breakout is valid , and the price moves up towards its tech goals , (or eventually much higher!) , you've hit a home run.

Ditto for GG.

John -

I actually understand your comment and view it less harshly than the other guys do , because your premise in general is a good one to follow.

But I believe you are underestimating the stage of the market which we are in.

EVERY bull market moves up " a lot" , but then moves up "a lot more".

You are picking a top , but it may just be a resting/correction point.

This move exceeded the 79-80 high of 800's for the first time.

So far , all it has done is continued on up from that historic breakout to 1030 , and corrected to test the 79-80 peak.

Now it has turned , to a large probability , technically bullish again.

Granted it ain't 250 anymore , but Berkshire Hathaway ain't two bucks a share anymore either , and it's been rising and rising anyway!

Ditto oil from its first peak at 80 , down to 50 -

And if you insert your comments there , guess what happened next?

Anyway , as John Fogerty said ,

It's just a thought.