blackberryman

blackberryman
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    Wow, Greg. DWTI is now approaching $327, so you're already up almost $100/share. Wish I had caught that wave, but I set my entry too low and missed, and it has been rising rapidly ever since.

    What do you anticipate will trigger the next rise in the VIX? It is only modestly responding to declining oil prices and market indices. What would send it dramatically higher?
    Feb 2, 2016. 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia: Do The Math  [View article]
    Michael-

    It would appear that in your quest to distinguish Bernie Sanders from the rest of the pack, you may also be prone to using "labels".

    Remember Bush II being described as a true conservative or "Reagan" Republican? And Obama as a Roosevelt-like Progressive? And now Sanders as a Jeffersonian-like Independent (presumably because they share some aspect of equality!). All have been efforts to spin images that are not truly reflective of the person or their beliefs. You would call them labels; I would call them spin.

    By his own descriptions, his website, and his history (starting with Young Socialists of America), Sanders is a Socialist. Perhaps a "Democratic Socialist" (a European effort to distinguish from other forms of socialism which brought ruin to Europe). But I wonder how many Americans know what it means to embrace a Democratic Socialist mindset? And how many have really looked into its history and future? So, he is a prime candidate for spin (or labeling as you might call it), positive or negative.

    I guess anyone who is outside the two party system may be defined as an Independent, meaning independent from or not dependent upon the two party system. But that is a very general description. Ralph Nader, Ross Perot, Lyndon LaRouche and Chuck Baldwin were just a few of the past "Independents", but their parties and platforms better defined their differences- Green, Reform, Labor and Constitution. Those distinctions mean something.

    Referring to Sanders as an Independent is not accurate. He is dependent as a member of Democratic Party. He is NOT an Independent. Neither is Rand Paul. He is a member of the Republican Party. I suppose if either were to break away from their parties (like Teddy Roosevelt when he formed the Bull Moose Party), then they could be described as Independent.

    I understand you object to "labels" because they are associated with today's "spin". Fair enough. But adopting other labels (especially ones inherently inaccurate) only contributes to the problem. Candidate beliefs, backgrounds, viewpoints, visions and, yes, policies, are all part of their make-up. And the public has a need to know all of those. Trying to judge a candidate apart from such information is folly. So is trying to judge a candidate only by their policies. We must not ignore their overall beliefs and vision.

    I can appreciate your frustration with the two dominant political parties. You're preaching to the choir. But be careful that you yourself are not promoting inaccurate "labels", especially with a form of political philosophy that is unknown to most Americans and has been (and I believe still is) at odds with our constitutional principles. As I've noted before, be careful focusing on the underdog status of a candidate or on a couple of issues that they seemed to be on the right side. We're going to have to dig deeper - and come to grips with the possibility that no one candidate may fit our country's needs, especially a President. Our country was not designed to be run by a President (which is increasingly becoming way too powerful and out-of-balance with the other branches). Other areas of the government (including states) will need to be bolstered to regain balance. And our Constitution needs to be bolstered- taught, followed and promoted in every political discussion and decision. Any action taken apart from it will assure tyranny in this land.
    Feb 1, 2016. 04:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    Greg-

    Great call on DWTI. You're probably up approx. $60/share since you're $229 entry. What did you do with your initial $294 entry? Take a loss, average down?
    Feb 1, 2016. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    Ninja-

    Who are you referring to? I missed something.
    Feb 1, 2016. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    Thanks for the link, Bogi. Very interesting article about the overall market. Has this author done any analysis on gold?
    Feb 1, 2016. 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    Greg-

    I agree. While not everyone can do it, some can. I have a close friend who has taken a similar approach and transformed $10K to $190K in several years in addition to his other work. Like anyone who excels in any area (professions, sports, trades, crafts, etc.), he trained (with some help) and is very disciplined. And he was teachable. Kudos to those who are able. I just hope they will pass along some tips for others.
    Jan 30, 2016. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    Thanks for the link, filipo. A good explanation for that viewpoint. A worthy read.
    Jan 30, 2016. 09:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    Good points, filipo. There seems to be some conflicting information whether BOJ surprised other CBs. I find it hard to believe, but it is quite possible that they are really ramping up the currency war. Also agree that CB moves make this market very difficult to predict. BOJ really turned the markets, at least in the short term. Now my question is whether and how the Fed responds. Any insights?
    Jan 30, 2016. 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    Sounds like a good plan.
    Jan 30, 2016. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    filipo-

    I agree. Operations can still function at the Comex. But, they are pushing leverage to extremes, and those extremes will increase vulnerability and risk. In other words, somebody is bound to get burned. I just hope it isn't me.
    Jan 30, 2016. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    Bogi-

    I'm not seeing a TVIX move back to $5 range, at least not in a straight line. I still think there is apprehension and volatility in this market. TVIX pulled back today because BOJ news buoyed up many markets. But note how many assets went up today. So I'm thinking some of this has to be short covering, asset re-allocations, and week-end and month-end re-positioning. Bad news of some sort will return, whether oil-related, China-related or whatever. That said, the nature of the VIX is that it is itself very volatile, and the central banks have a lot of influence. Any guesses if Fed members comment on the BOJ move next week?
    Jan 29, 2016. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    Thanks, Greg.

    TVIX is indeed difficult to set entry targets. I've had to do 2 entries with half positions each to make my trades work.

    With regard to DWTI, can you share where you're looking to enter? It looks like it has had a tendency to bounce off of $222, which is where I have been watching.

    Good luck to you too.
    Jan 29, 2016. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    Thanks, CA.

    Something is definitely up with currencies. I find it hard to believe that the Fed would not know of the BOJ move, but maybe not. I would think this will influence the Fed on its next moves with interest rates. Apparently, the market thinks it is a favorable move, unless this is nothing more of a short covering rally.

    Have a good weekend.
    Jan 29, 2016. 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    CA-

    When time permits, I'd be interested in your view about the BOJ rate move today. Do you think other central banks will move in this direction? How does this fit into your thesis that you described the other day?

    BTW, I have been looking to initiate a position in TLT but it has popped up the last couple of days.

    Thanks.
    Jan 29, 2016. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Rallies But Remains Weak And Is Primed For New Lows Into Spring  [View article]
    Greg-

    Are you monitoring TVIX or just sticking with DWTI? If you are watching TVIX, I'm curious if you or anyone else sees some support at around $8.44. Or avoid this for now until we see how the Fed responds to the BOJ, which could ignite a higher rally.

    Anyone-

    Isn't a negative interest rate an indication of deflation? Will other central banks follow suit or is this a one-off by the BOJ?
    Jan 29, 2016. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
952 Comments
643 Likes