Big Moose

Big Moose
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Oil Price Crash: How Low Will The Oil Price Go?  [View article]
    Great article! The historical comparison really puts things in perspective. While that does not reduce the pain, helps to develop a framework for action.
    Jan 23, 2016. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Union Pacific misses by $0.11, misses on revenue  [View news story]
    Great point!
    Jan 22, 2016. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Michael Kors: Good Business At A Cheap Price  [View article]
    "At the moment, KORS has $808,540M in cash with no debt." Is this correct? That is $800 B, isn't it?
    Oct 3, 2015. 02:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Better Than The Berkshire Hathaway? Danaher's Value  [View article]
    Chris, Great article! Love the details laid out. I had a chance to work with Beckman and Sybron prior to, and post, acquisition by Danaher. Solid management with swift decision making and good capital allocation. The only thing negative I would say is they do under invest in R&D, but understandable given their portfolio of investment choices within the company. Thanks for some wonderful research.
    Jul 15, 2015. 01:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Warren Buffett Doesn't Take A Bite Out Of Apple  [View article]
    Ibex Investor, Revisited this article as I was revisiting history of S&P and Dow Components. Great work! Loved the section on "Top S&P Components" over time. So easy to have the recency bias and not a perspective that takes into account the history over time.
    Jun 28, 2015. 09:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking Beyond The Obvious: Critical Thinking And Investment Decisions (Part 1)  [View article]
    David, Loved the article! I have a habit of storing some select newspaper and magazine headlines from yesteryears.. I am often amazed (as I am cleaning the garage or something) to see the rationale laid out at the time and how far it had strayed from the reality.. What I have realized is it takes a very special mind to escape the recency bias.

    Supposedly the Oracle of Omaha had a habit of looking at any year —say, 1970 —and examine the ten highest market-capitalization companies from around then. Then, project forward to say 20 years hence and see how these companies fared. Would love see that data. Bill Gates talks about this habit in this article:

    I work in Technology and its certainly true in that world as well. I often say that my favorite quote is that of Mark Twain that goes something like this, "Its not what we dont know that gets us, its what we do know that ain't true".. I know I have had to learn this the hard way..

    Keep up the great work!
    Jun 28, 2015. 12:32 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere & Company - An Interesting Comparison With Caterpillar And Archer Daniels Midland  [View article]
    When a company buys back its stock, all it is saying is that "we think this is one of the best ways to allocate the capital" in our hands. Good capital allocators know that you should only do stock buybacks when you are buying the stock for less than its worth.. There is nothing fundamentally wrong with buying back stock per se, except that you look like a fool when you buy at $130 and you have to borrow to cover expenses when it drops to $100, as in the case of CVX. As Buffett says, very rare to see buybacks done right.
    Jun 27, 2015. 01:10 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Scanning The SA Family For Alpha: Daskapital1000  [View article]

    Love your work, keep it up. Interesting exercise this one. I often wonder why the contention between these camps - aren't they both Value Investors, just of slightly different flavors. My goal is very simple: Preserve my principal and be able to have an income stream that is 3-4x today in 25 years. Like so many people, I initially started with buying good businesses at cheap prices and have slowly moved to buying great businesses at good prices. With that in mind, focus a lot on a durable moat, economic characteristics and strong management. Can't tell you how much I have learned from the SA community.

    I would likely answer "I" to all of your questions. That said, I do like FB and GOOG from your growth portfolio and also own them for the reasons above. Would also likely own AMZN if I could buy with some margin of safety..
    Jun 21, 2015. 09:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Predictable REITs In 2015  [View article]

    Reviewing an article from earlier in the year.. Love it! Not sure I understand the column "Div Growth 11-12". Does that refer to the dividend growth in the last 11-12 years?

    Jun 21, 2015. 01:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The No. 1 Stock In The World - Part 1  [View article]
    Great article! Loved reading the reasoning of so many folks I admire on SA. I am surprised no one picked BRK. The #1 criterion I would look for is a company with huge moat and a pristine balance sheet. Closely behind it would be a management that knows how to allocate capital.
    May 27, 2015. 02:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stress Test For Dividend Growth Investors  [View article]
    Concur with David. The other question that begs to be asked is if someone cannot afford to see their principal go down, should they really be in the stock market? That said, great article! Very timely reminder of the risks lurking around.
    May 10, 2015. 10:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Valuation's Best Valued Ideas For Retirement And Dividend Growth Portfolios: Cisco  [View article]
    Good points Chuck. I agree with you that the job of a manager is to improve the operating results. CSCO is a unique business with an excellent moat that could have gone on to great heights but unfortunately did not. To use "Oracle of Omaha's" (after all, its May) quote, these are "mistakes of omission, not commission," so they don't show up on the earnings statement. In the process, CSCO systematically lost ground to HP, Brocade and Alcatel by losing its focus (Flip, Linksys) and poor capital allocation. The only silver lining was their advancement in the Server business, but that is a low margin business. When you really think of the number of devices that have been activated in the last 10 years, I feel CSCO missed the boat. Big time! History will ultimately be the judge... I hope the new CEO does better than Chambers.
    May 5, 2015. 01:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Valuation's Best Valued Ideas For Retirement And Dividend Growth Portfolios: Cisco  [View article]
    Nice article as always Chuck. CSCO will continue to be undervalued as long as John Chambers is the CEO. Good company, dominant in their space but very poor management that has not been held accountable. In some ways similar to EMC in that respect. Hope that changes soon. I have held the shares for 10 years and it has not gone anywhere..
    May 4, 2015. 02:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frank's International: A Hidden Gem In The Oilfield-Services Patch Is On Sale  [View article]
    Same story, bought pretty soon after they went public. Down now but hopefully not for too long. Glad they brought in new CEO and professional management, this cannot continue to be just a family run business
    Apr 25, 2015. 12:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Omega Healthcare Is A Classic Textbook Model Of Repeatability  [View article]
    Brad, Great article as always. You always talk in terms of your Sleep Well at Night (SWAN) REITs like O, VTR .... Leaving valuation aside for a moment, is OHI in one of your top 5 SWAN REITs? Thanks,
    Apr 24, 2015. 12:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment