248 Comments

    • ON: Wed Sep 24th 20:06 PM
      Commented on:
      Cutting Position in James River Coal, Assuming Failure at Resistance
      Just wanted to say, good call Mark ;) I'm starting to buy this back, down 20%+ from where I sold Monday.

      A wacky market.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Sep 11th 20:33 PM
      Commented on:
      Why Don't Earnings Matter Anymore?
      Jason, I did not project the 1 year growth rate to "infinity"

      I wrote

      I like to compare earnings versus growth rates. I use my estimate for the next 3 year growth rate, but what I used below is a 1 year growth rate. So while we hide under the bed about the death of the global economy (ex the USA) we see companies that should be slowing from 30,50,100% type of growth down to 20-30% over the coming years. Those are valued at forward PE ratios of 5.
      View article »
    • ON: Fri Sep 5th 14:46 PM
      Commented on:
      Pulte, Gafisa: Hot Theories and Housing Stocks
      Thanks Tim.

      This is a market about allocations to sector, not individual stock selection as "some" say.
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    • ON: Thu Aug 28th 19:13 PM
      Commented on:
      Mindless Churn in Trendless Market
      Pangaea

      +1! :)
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    • ON: Tue Aug 19th 11:43 AM
      Commented on:
      ShengdaTech: Smallcap Opportunity
      Thanks User; I wrote that without benefit of CC as their call was Monday and I wrote it over the weekend.

      I assumed triple this year's run rate, but it sounds like they meant triple 2007 levels. Thanks for the comment. I can live with $162M in extra sales which is effectively doubling the size of the company.
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    • ON: Mon Aug 18th 05:30 AM
      Commented on:
      Game Changer in Solar Energy: PG&E Inks Deal
      <<<but SOL is much more loved by analysts and the investment community.

      Understatement of the year :) Trina when it fell to upper 20s not only got zero analyst defense, Goldman Sachs actually came out and downgraded with a target to low 20s. Even after the secondary was priced and that headwind was out of the way - no real analyst defense. THis is what happens when you blindside analysts constantly.

      That said, still own a sizeable batch on valuation alone and like Jack like SOL for valuation - even after last week's 30% run its still at forward PE of 14 instead of 11. LDK was also impressive this Q.

      Don't forget STP reports Wed this week as well although they have been all over the map in each quarter vs analysts
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    • ON: Tue Aug 12th 16:19 PM
      Commented on:
      EZCORP Is Down on Termination of Value Financial Deal
      Hi Alan,

      According to the reuters article (take it for what its worth) VFS was acting irrational and probably trying to squeeze out a higher price.

      The only irrational thing I see is a company dropping nearly 20% on 1 cent lower EPS ;) I realize maybe its a bit of a slower growth trajectory without these stores but this is a highly fragmented industry and many more acquisition targets.

      The market is simply all overreaction - more now than ever before.
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Aug 12th 16:17 PM
      Commented on:
      Have We Reached the Turning Point?
      <<Also people need to stop equating the stock market with the current economy, the stock market is always looking 6 months ahead.

      What was the stock market looking forward to in October 2007 at all time highs?
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Aug 12th 16:16 PM
      Commented on:
      Have We Reached the Turning Point?
      <<<Buy the company, not the market. If earnings are going higher its a sure bet the share price will too.

      I have about 25 stocks this quarter who have blown up on me, that would argue to the opposite
      View article »
    • ON: Sat Aug 2nd 15:04 PM
      Commented on:
      Massey Energy Posts Big Number But Big Charge Too
      JPE,
      Oil needs to stabilize not just go up for a day or two. A 50% retracement of its 70 to 148ish run since August would take it to 110. So we'll see. I am thinking 100ish because sentiment drives oil and humans seem to love big round numbers. If you have a tin foil hat you might believe oil will bottom a week before the election (grin)

      Coal is very different from crude; fertilizer is very different from crude. But in a world where hedge funds are the marginal decider of all stock prices, they might as well all be the same thing.
      View article »
    • ON: Thu Jul 31st 17:42 PM
      Commented on:
      Does Visa's Beat Bode Well for MasterCard?
      Thanks Adesai

      I am fine with the drop - hoping for $220s and if the market continues to erode might get $200 or better. Still 2 franchies in near monopoly and the global growth story is in inning 1. Many on the globe have never seen a credit card.

      Thanks for your points, I understand where you are coming from but I am not sure if that list deserves a 20% type fo premium. But the market says so, and the market is right in the near term :)
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Jul 30th 23:31 PM
      Commented on:
      Solar Stocks: Cutting Back on Three Names
      Jack I've avoided them for fear that "this" would be the quarter they fail to live up to expectations for about 4 quarters now

      Not so much. :)
      FSLR 1 year ago 100 - now 300 (overvalued all the way?)
      TSL 1 year 60 - now 30 (undervalued all the way?)

      etc etc.
      I await the day polysili is $125-$150 to see how the dynamics in the industry change.
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Jul 30th 21:16 PM
      Commented on:
      More Liquidity from the Fed: Welcome to the Roach Motel
      Agree 100%. It's all a farce. They should just say, give us your tired, your pool, your useless for 3 years and then get back to us in 2011. That's what it's going to end up being.
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Jul 30th 21:15 PM
      Commented on:
      Solar Stocks: Cutting Back on Three Names
      Jack, let's hope so

      I have some unrealized losses to make up in this group. FSLR continues to exceed my expectations. Tip of the hat to those guys.
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Jul 30th 21:13 PM
      Commented on:
      Restaurants Hit Hard Times as Two File for Bankruptcy
      Filet, they all scare me. I think something like Panera might do well only because its where a lot of people who used to sit down for a full service meal will end up going when they can't afford it but want a step up from "truly" fast food.

      If you don't have international exposure, in spades, you will have tough times in the next 18-30 months IMO. Or serve the very low end. Sort of the "Walmartization&q... of food. McDonald's should continue to thrive in such an environment.

      p.s. you guys have some hilarious screen names in the comment section ;)
      View article »
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