TraderMark

http://fundmymutualfund.com
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    • Thu Feb 28th 19:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Percentage of Stocks Below 200 Day Moving Average Now at Historical Oversold Levels
      I still like DO, RIG, and ATW. Only issue is everytime the market panics it dumps these thinking crude is going back to $50. But I like the deep sea names and find them to be a good valuation. The market treats them with a cyclical multiple instead of a more secular one. If that ever changes they'd truly move.
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    • Thu Feb 28th 18:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I Am Selling KBR in Spite of Its Impressive Quarter
      lol
      I wish I had $1.2 M :)
      the $1.2M is virtual!
      I am only in my mid 30s, and had to pay for own expensive college, it would be hard for me to have acquired $1.2M considering I was living on my own and paying off college for quite a few years after with a "normal" job (not Wall St job that pays $300K a year) ;)

      So the $8100 is part of the $1.14M virtual portfolio, run in methodology, to show thinking if I had a real one. If I had $1.2M I'd put it all in to get launched as quickly as possible. Unfortunately I live in the normal world with normal salary with normal expenses of life :) I will be putting a large sum of my personal investment into it, whatever they may be when the time comes!
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    • Thu Feb 28th 15:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      McDermott International vs. Foster Wheeler: All About Margins
      Stephen, interesting comment about the underbidding; certainly possible, but I dont think MDR and FWLT particulary bid against each other if you are doing apples to apples. FWLT and FLR perhaps... but it could also be a long term strategy - many of the foreign bids are relationship building with people with deep pockets and with what should remain deep pockets for many years. So once you get in there once it might help long term relationships. Ask KBR about that ;)
      But food for thought!
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    • Thu Feb 28th 15:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Credit Woes, "Ceaseless Talk," Fannie Mae and Toll Brothers
      Tim P, it appears to be a crisis of confidence. Alt A is not my favorite arena but in "theory" TMA should be involved far more in prime than Alt A's. Now that they can shovel off more loans to Fannie and Freddie (>$417K) that should also help them for the remainder of the year at least, but that is longer term and as you know the market is worried about today and tomorrow, no farther out.

      I do believe the credit contagion will move up the food chain to alt A and prime. As long as home prices continues to fall, and the consumer is being squeezed by inflation that the Fed refuses to acknowledge this is just the situation. The open question is one of degree. I guess I am perplexed why in the face of all this people are insistent that housing will bottom by next fall/winter and hence housing stocks must be bought when we are still degrading across the board. But we'll see how it plays out - much of what is happening now is that the market overreached on both the way up and down. So credit markets could overreact on the way down as people retract from all risk. That is the greater danger for the Fed and 0% rates won't fix that. This is their problem. It is interesting times indeed.
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    • Thu Feb 28th 15:03 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Credit Woes, "Ceaseless Talk," Fannie Mae and Toll Brothers
      Fig Trader I see you are following around on every post. Let me be clear, I make mistakes. For those of us who do not, like you, I realize this is hard to understand. Guess what I am a generalist - I try to know enough to be dangerous (for investors obviously) in as many fields as possible. Unlike you I am not a rocket scientist in any 1 field. This generalist theory led me into solar stocks 15 months ago before the mania, fertlizer stocks 12 months ago before the mania, infrastructure stocks 10 months ago before the mania, and coal stocks last September before the mania. So I am doing ok. But I am losing money on TMA and will be losing money on other investments in the future. But I get far more trends and themes correct than wrong and this allows me to buy early and sell to Johnny come latelies. But again I am a generalist. If you continue following around on every post and posting a snide commentary because of my error on TMA that is your right, but just because I did not latch onto IMB (which should be affected by all the same alt A issues TMA was), it seems a bit childish to do so.

      I do plan on continuing my tongue in cheek, error filled positions, and making more money than most over the long run. And I do expect to make errors along the way. That's how it works for the other 99.99% of us who are not perfect in our decisions. Have a good day.
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    • Thu Feb 28th 11:31 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I Am Selling KBR in Spite of Its Impressive Quarter
      Hi, 225 shares is the portion of my portfolio. KBR made up 0.7% of my portfolio. So I am not sure what you mean by your 2nd part of the comment.
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    • Thu Feb 28th 11:30 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Credit Woes, "Ceaseless Talk," Fannie Mae and Toll Brothers
      Hi Wisdom Seeker; I should of listened to that bird of warning on my shoulder yesterday in terms of TMA. I agree with your thesis completely. I think the ultimate solution is the US government is going to be buying mortgages direct from people. It sounds so pathetic but in this "handout" mentality we have, this is how it is going to end I am afraid.

      Ironically I bought TMA due to refinance boom, and to avoid the Kool Aid of the homebuilders... but in retrospect I should of bought the Kool Aid ;) Over thought it. It is amazing however to watch how quickly the credit market continues to degrade yet equity bulls could care less. Truly amazing.
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    • Wed Feb 27th 12:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Buying Foster Wheeler on Its Earnings Miss
      I buy in layers (and sell in layers) - I bought more today near $64 and see downside to $62

      If it breaks $62, then its a broken stock and I'll agree with you.
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    • Mon Feb 25th 17:16 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      As Powershares DB Agriculture Fund Hits $40, Soybeans are in Short Supply
      Hi, your screen name sounds like a dinosaur for some reason :)
      I wrote an article about MOO early last fall and in fact cited DBA at the time as well - I thought MOO had more upside at the time but DBA has in fact dont just as well. I like fertilizers more than the whole MOO but for a 1 stop shop, MOO is an easy way for people new to the sector to participate and spread risk among many companies.

      DBA is $42 already since I wrote that article - amazing movement.
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    • Mon Feb 25th 17:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Greentech Media: Solar Sector Headed for a Shakeout
      revolution - I have not heard of the company you mentioned

      rkreske - I've been a bit surprised by the weakness in LDK. I do consider them an arms merchant so as more panel makers come online I thought they would benefit; but perhaps the accounting 'scandal' has cast a long pall over the name. Earnings tonight were fine - but 26-31% gross margin for 08 is such a wide net, it is hard to accurately forecast where exactly their 08 eps will be

      everyone else - I consider solar to be very similar to what happened to fiber optic buildout. That is while I believe in the long term, in any shorter term time frame (1-3 years) too much supply can be built vs demand. So while demand in the very long term can be tremendous that doesnt mean there wont be times of oversupply (potential massive oversupply) in nearer term; which will lead to competition. One could argue thats silly but I heard the same arguements in late 90s about the buildout of fiber ... we will need it all because the internet is just beginning. Well people were right; we did need it all but its a matter of timing. It was not all needed in 2000, 2001, 2002 so many companies went out of business after overbuilding. I expect the same in this sector. (keep in mind there are many many private companies, not just the public ones we see each day)
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    • Tue Feb 19th 09:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Buying More MFA Mortgage
      Nope, I don't know either. There is always risk but in theory these guys who specialize in mortgage REITs should know better than the "salespeople"... at the banks whose sole job was hawking these goods and nothing else.
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    • Wed Feb 13th 18:55 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Commodity ETF Overview
      Thank you Tim, there are a lot of ETFs for ag trading in London but not NYC. I think with the strength in ag, we should see a lot of offerings coming in 08, I am on the lookout every day.
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    • Wed Feb 13th 17:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Recession Vs. Main Street Recession
      J. Stevens, I think the stock market and "Main Street" might disassociate in bubble 3.0. All this liquidity being created (and we're not done, Fed funds are going to 2.0 I assume - maybe lower) will prop up asset prices. That's inflation. It props up all asset classes, equity markets included. So we could have a decent stock market while Main Street suffers.

      Further, I think we will have a regional recession. Industrial Midwest, and housing based states (FL, NV, AZ, CA) are in it. Financial based areas might head there. And areas dependent on agriculture, (midwest/heartland/pla... or energy/mining (texas, ok, montana) etc will continue to prosper in a general sense.

      So much like real estate this might be a recession that depends on where you live :) But this is based on my theory that natural resources and food outputs will be in a boom due to worldwide shortages, and hence those states tied to those things will prosper no matter what.

      The last point is - as an investor class, generally these people are better off financially. Keep in mind many people in this country make $12/hr, $14, $16. That is $30k or less before taxes. An extra $10 a week in gas or $30 in groceries makes a world of difference as opposed to someone making $70K - just food for thought. Hence why inflation is going to make lives very hard for those at the bottom 50%... while the top portion (most who read Seeking Alpha) will shrug it off as "well things are a bit more pricey than before".
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    • Wed Feb 13th 17:26 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Retail Sales Show Inflation, Not Growth
      Amen. I said the same thing. But you can't talk to a raging herd of humans desperate for any piece of good news. My comment was not even 5 days ago we heard from the retailers themselves, yet we ignore everything they say to jump on a government report :) Wonders never cease.
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    • Mon Feb 11th 16:09 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      S&P 500 Still Looks Putrid
      Yep, we are overdue for another counter trend rally. 5% down in 1 week is quite abysmal but I don't see any sustained bull market moves; just a lot of countertrends.
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