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- Pacific Sunwear F3Q08 (Qtr End 11/1/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Mad Catz Interactive, Inc. F2Q09 (Qtr End 09/30/2008) Earnings Call Transcript
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- Saks Incorporated Q3 2008 (Qtr End 11/01/08) Earnings Call Transcript
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TraderMark
249 Comments
Baidu's $400 Target Reminiscent of Dot.com Valuation
I am not saying anything negative about Baidu.com operationally. The valuation is my contention. Its price to sales is >60. Sorry, but that's dot com valuations. This was a mid $100s stock last month. Again, I think they will be a huge company in time, but the market valuation in relation to size of company is out of whack. It is cheap on 2010 or 2011 size, not on 2007 or 2008 or heck 2009. Analysts begin making up wacky excuses to justify higher prices... thats how it worked in 99 and 00 with internet companies when there was no reasonable way to value on earnings or revenue - they started valuing stocks on mindshare or eyeballs or silly things like that or 10 year cash flow discounts. Does anyone really know the 10 year value? Many companies in 1997 that were going to dominate the internet world are out of business... even the "best" of the era Yahoo is getting eaten by Google. If you tried to value Yahoo in 1997 and say growth rate would grow by XX% each year and in 2007 you would be at ABC price you'd look foolish now. Again, analysts are now having to come out with outrageous ways to justify price increases - where was the $400 price target when the stock was $160 not 6 weeks ago? It would of sounded outrageous then, but a lot more courageous of a call. Now its just trying to justify a price.
China Natural Resources' 70% Leap Just Another Bubble
Mchen - whatever the degree - it grew 1.7% year over year - yes I know it is running, but once the mania dies down I see this one being a great short :) But not until the maniacs leave the stock.
Buybacks in Fashion, Market Headed Higher
Instead of putting that money out to find more resources they are simply returning it to shareholders.
The companies can argue well its too expensive to go and try to find new locations and the risk/reward is too high in favor of risk - so instead of looking for more potential finds, we are just going to take this cash cow and give it to our investors. Thats great for investors but over the long run this lack of exploration is just going to drive up prices for energy even more. But who benefits from that? The companies not exploring :)
Funny how that works...
And oh by the way we are still giving Clinton era subsidies to these companies - back from the time crude was trading at $20.... amazing.
Just How Big is the China Bubble?
While on 1 hand I don't see comparing to completely different bubbles one on top of the other as more than eye candy, it would be sort of amazing if they followed each other paths. I have seen other similarities with housing stocks vs NASDAQ and Japan vs NASDAQ.
First Solar's Breakout Should Hold Up
Longer term there are some issues such as the polysilicon based producers of panels finally seeing price reductions in their cost basis as pricing comes down in latter 2008-2009 etc. Also I didn't see any comment about valuation in terms of price earnings for even 2008 - are you suspending all analysis on behalf of a short term trade ? Hard to tell as I can't determine your timeline for this trade (investment?) thanks
Garmin Sell-Off Overdone; Wait For the Dust to Settle
www.fundmymutualfund.c...
As with all lemmings, I mean... investors... overreaction to the upside and downside.
Buybacks in Fashion, Market Headed Higher
However the game changer is the 'floor' on prices now by petro dollars (Mid East) and newly rich trade surplus governments such as Russia, China, et al. Even commodity rich areas like Canada and Brazil - along with their strengthening currencies (do you see that reversing with the path we are going) will be buying US assets left and right - if not stock, than companies outright.
So we have different views on the end game - but I think we can both agree the little guy (i.e. 80% of us) are going to suffer.
While the buybacks are artificial in terms of pushing up profits, with the cash flow of some of these companies eventually they can take themselves private (no reason to be public at some point).... etc.
Should be interesting to see it play out - thanks for your well written comment.
Is the S & P Expensive?
As I stated *I* think that forward earnings are probably overstated and I see any domestic facing company seeing major headwinds. That said, the US consumer somehow continues to spend without regards to debt (see this mornings Consumer Spending figures) - eventually you'd think there reaches a point of no return and the consumer cuts back but we have a consumption culture here. That said, more and more of SP500 (the largest companies in the US) are based off international sales. So they are more and more (each year) based on global economic growth and although we are a very inward nation, although we are still the largest and most economy, as each day/week/month passes, we become less and less (as a %) of the global GDP as other new dynamic economies start to hit their stride.
Hence I would be more worried about say the Russell 2000 or Wilshire 5000 which includes the smaller companies which generally are based on US economy - the larger caps are doing just fine by making up for slowing US sales with heavier international sales.
But again, I *do* think earnings next year are slower (as I wrote we could see a 5-7% haircut next year to what is expected) and I expect to start hearing that news in these October earnings reports when guidance is cut in certain sectors, but at this time the global growth engine seems to be running on all cylinders - we have shortages in almost any commodity as especially China/India sop up most of the world's products for their modernization. Bringing 2.5 Billion people online to the 21st century can make up for 270M weak US consumer (the other 30M are the rich/well off in the USA who don't feel any pain) The bottom 2/3 who actually feel it when gas prices go up, grocery prices go up and their wages don't go up with "true" inflation - I worry about them not just for next year, but the long term.
Titanium Supplies Will Be Tight Through 2010
Seeking Alpha cut off the bottom of my article when they brought it over to this site -
You have 1 of 3 options - Titanium Metals (TIE), Allegheny Technologies (ATI), or RTI International Metals (RTI)
Earlier posts on the titanium stocks can be found here
www.fundmymutualfund.c...
If you are a long term investor you can choose one (or more) and it looks like hold for a few years - since my timeframes are a bit shorter I've been talking about the technical picture a bit more, and now they look technically in good shape after looking poor in the summer months. good luck.
Why I'm Not Buying Allegheny Technologies, Titanium Metals, or RTI International Metals, Just Yet
That post was more of a technical short term call - waiting for a catalyst. Since that post I have initiated a position in TIE (once the chart looked positive technically) and added back to my ATI position as well. Still want to see some more earnings stability out of RTI before jumping on board there so TIE/ATI for now.
See here:
www.fundmymutualfund.c...
I think all 3 are in the right place/right time - ATI exposure to chemical process/oil & gas is another market I am playing in numerous ways and am long term for the very long run. I appreciate you writing all that out!
Google vs. Apple: Choosing the Better Stock
Google vs. Apple: Choosing the Better Stock
I do agree enterprise is still WinTel and I don't see that changing. But the home market is changing. All these teenagers and college kids want Macs and they are going to be young adults who also want Macs for their homes - with the ability to run MS Office programs now along with the 'new software' bundles from the likes of Google (which is actually being pushed into the enterprise by some consulting firms - Capgemi?) the tide seems to be turning. Again this is not an arguement for 29% market penetration, but 5-7%? Seems very do-able. Just watching anecodately what I see college kids lugging around it seems Dells (price) or MacBooks (cache) dominate.
Big Margins Continue for Apple
www.fundmymutualfund.c...
I didn't go in depth on the subpoena - the bigger issue is in general the federal government likes to squeeze those lower on the totem pole to get to the big fish; so Jobs is the big fish. This specific summoning to testify as a witness is not the end game to worry about - but big picture as with Enron, as with Worldcom, as with Martha Stewart, as with countless other examples they'd love to nail the big fish. I believe Brocade is a good example, but some of these other companies going through similar backdating option situations do not have the valuation nor 'cult hero' status attributed to 1 man in their organization. Let's see how it plays out.
The Google of Fertilizer: Potash Corp.
Actually I think Taiwan annexed China the way those communists have turned capitalists ;)
The Google of Fertilizer: Potash Corp.
Not unless China annexes Thailand.
See this:
www.commonlanguageproj...
I don't think $2 billion to open a mine is low barriers to entry. Also make a distinction between natural resources and non natural resources. i.e. China cannot product crude, cannot produce gold, cannot produce minerals, etc. They can produce steal, or eventually wheat/corn (although their natural geography is not as condusive to agriculture as a whole as the US or Russia for example) - so the short answer is no - its a finite resource. Remember 'fertilizer' has multiple inputs, nitrogen, phosophorous, etc.
And it's actually not my headline, Seeking Alpha has editorial control :) They have some good headline writers - my blog entry was titled "Strength Today: Potash" but my opening line was that Potash is the Google of fertilizer ;)
"www.fundmymutualfund.c...