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TraderMark
249 Comments
As Intel Joins the Solar Sector, Is There Room for Everyone?
www.reuters.com/articl...
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, China's biggest contract chip maker, plans to become a maker of polysilicon, a key material for solar energy cells, a source familiar with the situation said on Thursday.
SMIC is in talks with a German company to obtain the necessary technology, said the source, declining to identify the German firm.
As Intel Joins the Solar Sector, Is There Room for Everyone?
I would not be surprised to see other semi players especially in Taiwan get into the process as solar moves incrementally from "70s hoax" to "2010s reality"
And they can scale quite quickly based on decades of process...
Just have to keep an eye out on these "under the cover" announcements and see how far old school companies decide to infringe on this space. I do think the market opportunity could be/will be enormous hence why I believe we will see a stampede of elephants within 5 years. Destroying profit margins ;)
Going Double Long on Agriculture with DAG
Can get the same exposure to space with less cash so its leveraged bet in a way.
As Intel Joins the Solar Sector, Is There Room for Everyone?
But the long term trend is up... we are just in a hysteric mode at this point... could see crude back to $100-$110 very easily.
But thats short term - I just hope when/if oil retreats to that level and gas goes to $3.25 Americans dont stop alternative energy pushes and go back to SUVs... we have such short memories.
A Missed Opportunity in Canadian Solar
But it would of been nice to have nailed CSIQ, enjoyed the run and moved into TSL when its ready to finally not disappoint ;) Unfortunately the crystal ball was cloudy this time around
Cutting Intrepid Potash on Quick 25% Gain
traditionally people don't use something 18+ months out as "forward PE ratio"... thats a bit far out. You are using 2009 estimates, not 2008 which would be a more traditional forward measure for now.
p.s. IPI is at 17 forward PE on 18 months out earnings. MOS is at 13-14 on estimates 12 months out. So who is cheaper? I am not saying MOS will go up more than IPI - I am simply stating if your defense is valuation - there are cheaper stocks.
As for onespacetraveler - there is a reason I got into IPI - not random choice.
seekingalpha.com/artic...
Also I believe I said weeks before it came IPO it would be the hottest IPO of 2008.
Thanks
Cutting Intrepid Potash on Quick 25% Gain
edhaq$,
one positive for IPI is the weak US dollar vs Canadian producers for example.
Cutting Intrepid Potash on Quick 25% Gain
I still have a minor stake but just rolled the funds into Mosaic which I think is more undervalued. That said IPI has the IPO factor and limited freely trading share count thing going for them. Again, the group tends to move together so it might just be a moot point which potash name you are in sometimes.
Florida,
AGU has been a laggard in the group due to the retail arm of the business but since announcing the upside in earnings has popped. I expect the same commentary from the other names and/or they will just showcase the results in another sterling earnings report (but they will have higher input costs i.e. nat gas etc)
Cutting Intrepid Potash on Quick 25% Gain
Further, I am sort of interested to watch how these stocks have moved with the grains... its as if the thesis is, when grains go up so should fertilizers. Anyhow interesting move - and funny to watch them all move in a group, like a pod of whales.
Fact is they are still cheap fundamentally - which is amazing. The main problem is the overall market is prone for a correction which is the main fly in the ointment. It certainly does not appear western governments care one iota about pulling back from biofuels which was a fear of mine about 6 weeks ago, the last time these names were going nuts.
What a world.
Selling Some Yingli and Trina Solar on Dead Cat Bounce
Perhaps my frustration is aggrevated by the fact after the last CC from TSL I decided I was going to find new names to bridge into, instead og being so heavy into TSL with a supportive (small) position in YGE
My 2 choices were SOLF and CSIQ
Got greedy on the first, wanted the 200 day, and instead only got 50 day, and CSIQ missed by goal by $2 or so. ($33 instead of $35)
So missed some nice moves there. Anyhow there is another train coming - I just keep missing the current ones :) Frankly a lot of frustration is the past year people who know little other than symbols buys whatever is up 25% the day before to flip to the next sucker and it usually works. Meanwhile you can sit in a "value" stock in the sector and see almost no returns. Its like watching a party from outside the window sill :)
Eventually the tide will turn. Or so I keep telling myself. I started off strong in 2006 with STP but since going into SOLF spring 2007 I've been overweighted in the wrong stock the whole time by choosing value over momentum.
Well one day TSL will pull a SOLF or CSIQ - I still believe that. Just have to ignore the fact that management is doing everything in their power to make sure that day is pushed out farther and farther. ;)
Selling Some Yingli and Trina Solar on Dead Cat Bounce
We now have both FSLR and ENER at 50x forward earnings... and I don't mean 2008. I mean 2009.
And lowly Chinese polysilicon stocks can't get a flipping 20 forward PE ratio... specifically one.
Look at CSIQs news today - yes I realize TSL is cheap but CSIQ up 38% in 5 sessions, SOLF up 28%, and TSL 15% (after being dismembered)
I think it speaks to management and their "out of the box" decisions and lack of trust on Wall Street. Really a frustrating exercise... note Jack, I've been in TSL for nearly a year so its not like I bought it expecting a pop in 2 weeks.
Cummins' Mysterious Rise
I wrote that piece yesterday about 5 minutes after the news came out. With the myriad of articles written since it's a lot easier to Monday Morning QB. Somehow I guess I got lucky to actually own the stock, being as pathetic as I am.
Cutting Intrepid Potash on Quick 25% Gain
over time much higher
in the near term if market sells off they will sell off. Generally in a market correction the strongest stocks are the last to go so thus far certain sectors (fertilizer being one) has been unaffected but if you look back at January, March 2008, August 2007 etc you see they will fall too.
If they do, it will create a magnificent buying opportunity
If you are not the trader type just hold on and come back in a year. Potash producers have some fantastic things going their way EVEN after these tremendous runs. As long as future earnings estimates continue to be ratcheted up, their is upside to go. If one is more of an avid trader, there might be lower price points to buy in the days/weeks ahead. We shall see - its more up to the market - if the market were in bull mode I'd say buy hand over fist. This is not a bull market though, and the bear eventually hits every sector.
Cummins' Mysterious Rise
XTO Keeps Expanding with Acquisitions and Increased Production
XTO starting to remind me of CHK.
Scammr, you are right about that - I remember the refrain was "they overpaid" but at this point any assets acquired in 2004-2006 will look like bargains I suppose - in any piece of the energy pie.