TraderMark

http://fundmymutualfund.com
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    • Wed Apr 30th 10:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The "No Amount of Bad News Can Bring This Market Down" Trades
      sunrises, that would be an ambitious target.
      If there is a belief the dollar will rally huge, than anything is possible, but I'd be looking at the 50 day average in low $130s as a solid first time entry point. I've held this name a long time so I keep a core position and then trade around it, so my focus might be different than someone buying it the first time.

      I don't think it's expensive at all based on its mix of business but maybe some others do.
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    • Tue Apr 29th 11:50 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Buying More Mechel
      Wakeup: No, but it's just another feather in the cap.
      Alpha Seeker: If I were doing short term trading I would of lopped off these shares as they immediately bounced nearly $10 within 1 session
      Sorrentocapital: If you go to the blog and click on the Mechel tag I have many entries on this name, and you can go to the earlier ones to see the thesis. Actually I listed 2 of them in the story above. I do like it as a coking coal story, but also for iron ore and steel. And its proximity to China. And unlike our government who believes in "free markets" to eviscerate our entire manufacturing base, Russia protects its companies. Like it or don't like it. Just imagine if we had all our steel production in this current era. Instead we have a new dawn of steel, and about 3% of our capacity from the 1970s. So the rest of the world is benefiting and aside from a handful of companies like X we do not. Oh well. Free markets and all.
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    • Fri Apr 25th 16:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Buying Goldman Sachs
      duhduh
      if its chart breaks down, I'll be cutting back

      But didnt you hear? the bottom is in? everything will be fine in 6 months? housing will be booming by September? etc etc etc ...

      If they keep repeating this for another 18 months they will eventually be correct. Until then, Rome parties.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 25th 13:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      As Home Sales Plunge, Some Say the Crisis Is Almost Over
      jimsep, homebuilders continue to build because your Congressman continue to give them tax breaks

      Then they put them in bills with cool names like "Foreclosure Prevention act!"

      You would continue to build as well if market forces were pushed aside and you can keep offsetting tax losses with the silly tax payers money. People need to educate themselves about what is going on behind the scenes. The homebuilder lobby said they would stop putting money into political coffers early in 2008. Within 2 months they got this bill. Thats democracy.

      Read the truth here

      www.fundmymutualfund.c...

      Cramerica. For the corporation. By the corporation.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 25th 13:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Buying Goldman Sachs
      Better to speak the truth than hide behind it :)
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 25th 12:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Potash's New Hit Highlights Fertilizer's Risks
      Atlantic,
      I share your strategy
      I layer in AND out of positions

      I have been layering out (too early) of fertilizer over the past week, with last piece out Tuesday

      I started back in yesterday, especially MOS which I find more undervalued than POT. I missed CF this morning at $130 :)

      The market could push these up 15% in the next week or down 15%, I have no idea. As with you, I'll enjoy my gains if they go up from here, and will have cash ready if the market drops them.

      The only systematic risk will be point 4 above, and even then it will be one of perception as opposed to a real degradation of the story. If/when 4 happens we will have a major selloff which needs to be bought. The growth of middle class, loss of arable lands, worsening weather in the globe, etc etc does not change. We are just helping cause even more horror with stupid biofuel policies. Anything to win votes.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 25th 11:26 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The "No Amount of Bad News Can Bring This Market Down" Trades
      bearfund, I agree with you 100% intellectually

      Unfortunately, this market is nothing related to logic. I am not touching the commercial banks here for reasons you listed. We have not even begun to discount all the bad loans coming related to the consumer. Just getting started here.

      The i-banks are a little different animal - more towards the corporate side of thing and can be pseudo overseas plays.

      I do expect a lot of regional banks to show serious trouble as we move through 2008 and into 2009. All the fuss so far has been with the big money center banks.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 25th 10:34 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Taking iPath DJ Livestock Cow out of the Barn
      Panskeptic - I'd appreciate a link to said charts - always willing to learn. Again, I am skeptical of traditional TA on these ETFs, so no need to be so sarcastic. I'd enjoy seeing how the different charts work for pure commodities.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 25th 10:30 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      As Home Sales Plunge, Some Say the Crisis Is Almost Over
      Richjoy, thanks for your comment. Not trying to be demon of doom. But just a counteraction to all the "boom" talk on most media and TV.

      As for your example - do you take into account real wages have been falling since 2000? For the bottom 80%? I'm not talking the top 1% or even 2-10 percentile.

      When wages fall in real terms, that is very different from previous cycle... this is 8 years in a row, and as inflation ramps its only going to continue. In a vacuum home prices should fall, just alone, from real wages falling. But we are not in a vacuum - we are coming out of a bubble.

      But again, as I noted and islandcreek mentioned - if you are in a farming community or a Plains state or energy related, its all a moot point - I expect housing to hold up very well. The problem now will be we are going to have a problem with our internal migration - about 1 in 7 people move every year. Quite a few of those are going to be hostages in their homes since they cannot sell them, and that is going to hurt the overall economy. I'm just sick of hearing about the imminent recovery - its been about a year now we've heard it.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 25th 10:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The "No Amount of Bad News Can Bring This Market Down" Trades
      poncho, good call on bikes! Maybe Nike is a good call here because people will need to walk to work? Doesnt that run out the tread on their shoes much faster?

      I am also looking into mule play... you know for those trips to grocery store - need to put the bags on something, now that people will be priced out of cars.

      Hey GM Is now an international play, sales in Asia and all. They don't need no stinkin USA consumer.
      View article »
    • Thu Apr 24th 15:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Further Musings on Solar Stocks
      Hi Jack, good summary. I agree with 90% of it. I am also on the TSL camp but its been "undervalued"... since last summer. Thankfully they wised up about that damn poly plant, which would be ready just about time there is a global glut of processed sand.

      I'd also separate out the companies in the food chain. JASO, SOL, and LDK are different companies than the rest

      AKNS is completely different

      and you probably want to throw CSUN in there, minor player

      I guess ESLR too but you'd need to have profits to be in that chart ;)

      Trina has the best "value" but ironically this is 1 sector where the most expensive (i.e. momentum) gets the most action. I am hoping once Trina breaks technical resistance at 45 it has one of those breathtaking moments we get in solars every so often i.e. SOLF in late 2007. I think without the share overhang in TSL $4 is quite probably for EPS.
      View article »
    • Thu Apr 24th 15:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Potash's New Hit Highlights Fertilizer's Risks
      Yes it worked out nicely. I am scaling in a bit here today on the sell off in these names. Hoping for more selloff over coming week, to provide more attractive entries

      But by Dec 31, 2008 I expect much higher prices.
      View article »
    • Thu Apr 24th 12:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Taking iPath DJ Livestock Cow out of the Barn
      Thanks sbenard, I was aware of UBC but not LSO
      I have no idea if hogs or cows will go up more in price. But I think both will, along with chickens, check out the video section of CNBC for this mornings interview with Tyson Foods. Since I dont know when/which will go up most I am ambivalent towards the mix. I just know meats are destined to go up.

      I also chose COW since its traded the longest.

      Question - do you believe technical analysis works on these commodity ETFs ex-oil? I have been in DBA and I am mixed on whether it works since its 4 individual commodities.
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 13th 16:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The State of the Thin-Film Photovoltaic Industry
      Andrew, markox5 from yahoo boards - just curious - when we last talked you said you would not be selling anY FSLR for many years - now I see you moved 50% away. #1 did you sell any or are you just buying other things? #2 what did you move the other 50% to? ( I thought last we talked it was SPWR/STP)

      p.s. congrats on your conviction for holding FSLR through thick and thin :)
      View article »
    • Sun Apr 13th 16:26 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fed Easing: No Free Lunch for Dollar, Oil and Commodities
      If the dollar falls enough, than multinationals will once again build plants in America to take advantage of "low cost labor" willing to "work hard" and as a bonus "they speak English well". All the same reasons for exporting a lot of IT and customer service to India.

      There is always a silver lining ;) ... one day China will be building plants here since labor there was too expensive and the cheap Americans will do the work that Chinese won't do. Give it 25 years.
      View article »
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