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TraderMark
249 Comments
Ultra and Inverse ETFs: The Downside of Doubling Up
Mechel: Continuing to Acquire Most of Eastern Europe's Steel
I began my position in early November near $80 and built it up in the weeks after in the low to mid 70s up through $80.
www.fundmymutualfund.c...
I am just trading around a core stake I dont plan to sell for a long time. With the volatility in these type of names it is worthwhile to sell some off when they spike and buy back on the inevitable sell offs.
I'm usually early - I was in solar in late 2006, and fertilizer in spring 2007. I always enjoy watching the masses join the trade 6 months later...
The Two Housing Crises
It is quite sad that normal people with normal jobs are priced out of many large city areas - the irony in all these proposals by DC is that in their quest to prop up housing prices - they are stopping what would help a lot more people in the long run. A much lower price that would allow normal people with normal jobs to buy normal homes at 30-35% of income rather than 45-55% like many people have been doing... and is what is now being delevered. But when you work in an ivory tower with 6 figure salaries, and federal perks you don't really realize what the normal people are struggling through - so you try to stop the short term pain of lower home prices... typical response by govt. Sacrifice long term for short term.
Mechel: Continuing to Acquire Most of Eastern Europe's Steel
Late Payments on Loans the Highest in 16 Years: The Pooring of America Continues
People dont realize recessions can last more than 6-9 months anymore. They forgot mid 70s to early 80s.
Cost of Rice Rises 50% in Two Weeks as Agflation Continues
Missed Steel Rally? Massey is Purest Play on Metallurgical Coal
I agree with your points. Actually ANR is the largest met producer - which I added today. These are going to be 2009 plays in terms of enjoying the lions share of the higher prices, as much of 08 is already contracted in. But I think we are going to get quite explosive 09 earning revisions; when the analysts start to catch up to the story and get the investor class in a tizzy with their new and improved numbers is an open question but I'd rather be in, before it happens. In the very very near term these stocks are extended and I'd like to see them pull back before meaningfully expanding positions.
Adding LDK Solar as a "You Forgot about Me" Play
Buy and hold has not worked since last summer, except for a short time of Kool Aid in fall 2007 (Sept/Oct). It's been a traders market since.
I took quite a bit of LDK off the table this AM. And probably will look to add it back near $30. The volatility is extreme so not to use it to your advantage is like tying a hand behind your back.
How Commodity Prices Are Hurting Global Economies
Answer: As long as the sheep in the country don't educate themselves on what is being done to them to (cough) "help" them.
Just keep listening to the party line - inflation subsides in 2nd half 2008. That is, if there were any inflation today. Which there isn't. Of course..
Leaving Google in No Man's Land
for the other comment - buying above $500 is a technical breakout - thats why... it doesnt make sense for those who dont use TA.
Lies, Damn Lies and the Unemployment Rate
Antler I read from about 15-20 sources...wherever the information is, I go to. I am ambivalent about the source - everything has it's bias. Personally I prefer to read UK sources over US sources. US sources are very nationalistic and narcissitic usually i.e. everything will be fine, we are the US of A. We rule blah blah. In an age of global competition with many hungry countries competing with us our lack of good primary education, and stupid government proposals, along with a host of other things, is combining to make us uncompetitive in many ways. It is like the people need to fight against the system to survive here, as opposed to the system working for them. But like most 3rd world countries the ruling elite cheer and make policies for themselves, and the middle class gets sapped away. Personally I am shocked the one voting class that cares (people age 65+) are not storming Capital Hill - their cost of living adjustments are based on CPI and those on fixed income are getting 3-4% a year in this environment?
Anyhow we are in a global race for everything from resources to knowledge - we've been in a nice cocoon for 50 years - and our thinking is still stuck in the cocoon stage. Needs to change. I don't see any of it at this point... makes me worried.
I Love Fertilizer Stocks, but...
Anyhow the action has been nothing if not interesting... yesterday's close below the 50 day should of called for a selloff based on technicals. Luckily the analysts came in to save the day. I find it ironic that POT has not shown the same weakness in the chart as MOS... perhaps pure manipulation for all we will ever know.
I Love Fertilizer Stocks, but...
@mark1, you named 5 stocks that beat analysts and went up, I can name you 50 that did the opposite. The idea is the probability is 50/50. It can go up, or down. Depending on what the herd is feeling that day.
@G'Money - I don't think the PE is scary at all - you cannot look at trailing earnings - analysts have been wrong for 12 months+ on their estimates and my belief is they continue to be wrong. POT and MOS will see even more increases in their 08 and 09 numbers in my opinion... especially 09.
@startouch - I have an online friend who didnt want to sell Suntech Power in the $80s a few months back due to "taxes". The stock went to $30 within a few months. Taxes are an issue, but taxes signify you are making money. Better than the opposite. I have unfortunate,y been changing my short term view because the price action has been all over the place lately and my short term weightings are based on technical action. With hedge funds running almost daily in and out of commodities to early cycle financials/homebuilder... and back, reversing course every 48 horus it is wrecking havoc with my strategy. Also to be clear I am never totally out of a position that I believe in like these names - I am simply weighing it more or less. I always keep a core, and trade a partial position.
@User 153029 - there are really 3 names to play potash and the 3rd has a retail component. So there are 2 pure play names. So there are really not many choices.
@ William S - I am sure I will get criticized for my strategy if the stocks go up. The point is not if the stock goes up or down but a risk aversion going into earnings. I've been heavily weighted in these stocks for nearly a year now. And I will continue to be for a few more years to come I am sure. But... the herd reacts so arbitrarily around earnings, and you can instantly be down 15-20% for no good reason. That's my main point with this post. Fundamentals do not justify a sell off but the coal stocks just dropped 25-30% across the board for no good reason as well. Hedge fund money and their "pick of the day" seems to determine prices more nowadays than fundamentals.
@BigDog - I am frankly getting sick to see MON compared to MOS/POT. I've heard in the press 4x in the past 48 hours that MON is a fertilizer company. MON is a quality name but completely different. I've been in the fertilier companies because of better earnings leverage and frankly they have been much cheaper than MON this entire cycle
@MDogg - I think analysts are and will continue to be behind the curve. The thing they bring out every quarter is natural gas pricing and how thats going to eat into margins - I think this will be the 3rd quarter in a row they bring out the same excuse... probably to get their clients in at lower prices.
Thanks for all your comments and once the market settles down I hope to simply sit and ride these tremendous opportunities. Until then, I've been moving in and out a lot more than I'd prefer simply because these stocks are quite volatile - but they provide great opportunities for traders and long term holders in my opinion.
Why I'm Buying More Mosaic Ahead of Earnings
www.fundmymutualfund.c...
Just wanted that stated since I made a strategic change in direction after thinking about it - better to miss some upside in case the herd reacts negatively to what I'm sure will be fine numbers.
Cutting Back on Powershares DB Agriculture to Avoid Hedge Fund Panic
if $36 holds we have a double bottom but frankly the power of hedge funds to liquidate positions overrides everything in this market; hence why I am still cautious and hoping for lower. Good luck.