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- Pacific Sunwear F3Q08 (Qtr End 11/1/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Mad Catz Interactive, Inc. F2Q09 (Qtr End 09/30/2008) Earnings Call Transcript
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- Saks Incorporated Q3 2008 (Qtr End 11/01/08) Earnings Call Transcript
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TraderMark
249 Comments
As Alt A Mortgages Breakdown, Ultrashort Financial Not So Cool Anymore
We have a lot more fallout in the Alt A, prime mortgage and then we move on to commercial, credit card, and the like as the consumer recession blooms. But it will take time to play out AND it is very difficult to game anymore with the constant interventions - what the Fed has done the past 9 days is simply historic and makes things very tricky.
www.fundmymutualfund.c...
It is not a free market, so it not easy to trade anymore.
Consumers Will Continue to Buy Apple's Fashionable Gadgets
Simply enough the stock is below both major moving average, 50 day and 200 day. In fact the 50 day crossed below the 200 day mid March which is another negative trend. But 50 day is about $140 and falling daily and 200 day is $144
It sounds counterintuitive to newer investors but a lot of technical traders like to buy stocks at higher prices once the momentum is back. Bargain hunters prefer to buy lower. Most technical traders will latch onto Apple once it breaks free of both those 2 trading resistance areas. Hence why I said mid $140s.
You can buy now (or lower) but your timeline to hold will be longer. So you can buy cheaper but for all we know Apple sits in this range area for 1 more day, 1 more week, 1 more month, or 1 more quarter. Etc. So it is simply a strategy to buy on a "breakout" - you pay more but you should have a quick return at that point.
Either way I like Apple for the long run - and agree with some of the comments above re: Conversion. Also there will be a consumer spending retrechment in this country but its all relative. Spending is not going to zero and I also am a big proponent of the cache factor. People just dont realize what a benefit it is; when I was growing up people were paying $120 for Nikes when Adidas were available for 25% of the cost, just as good of a shoe. Here one could make the technical arguement Apple is superior but even if it weren't they have created a brand that people are willing to pay more for. That is invaluable, and its global and its the type of cache that very few companies have. Sony used to be one 2 decades ago.
Again, not IMMUNE to consumer spending crunch I believe is happening and will continue to worsen but its a relative commentary. HP, as fine of a company as it is (or Dell or Lenovo), has no real cache among teens/20s, etc. And those people set the trends.
As Building Slowdown Goes Commercial, Ultrashort Real Estate Should Speed Up
Yes it is not for the faint hearted or those who do not keep up with the market daily. As an aside I am slowly rebuilding exposure to these names as we move in the 1330-1360 level on the S&P :) Eventually this trade will go against me, but with a real recession looming I don't find the Fed to be a salve for everything that is coming down the pike. Thanks for your comments. I do expect continued extreme volatility for the next few months as we work through this credit mess; then we can just focus on the recession
Note: all that changes when the federal govt starts buying mortgage paper direct!
As Building Slowdown Goes Commercial, Ultrashort Real Estate Should Speed Up
I'll probably stop having exposure once the final nail is in the coffin and the US government begins buying mortgage paper direct. But yes the easy money has been made, but I've been trading them since last August. They still provide a nice hedge against long positions, and have been 2 of my biggest winners the past half year.
As Building Slowdown Goes Commercial, Ultrashort Real Estate Should Speed Up
SRS hit 120, 4 of the last 6 days and peaked at 128
SKF is self explanatory, peaking at 150 yesterday
I find it laughable to say it was not a good trade - I am out of both positions as of the good action yesterday due to Fed actions Sunday night but if you have a short term horizon (which I did) these were excellent protection as a hedge in the portfolio. If you are talking a 3 year hold, that's different. I now expect these to rally again, and until the government led bailout to buy mortgage paper direct they should continue to be volatile BUT things did change in the past week as the Fed now is willing to take on bad paper from Bear and backstop the investment banks as of Sunday night. But these were 2 very profitably trades, which I enjoyed!
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As Building Slowdown Goes Commercial, Ultrashort Real Estate Should Speed Up
I find it amusing how now its the consensus... from the same people who denied any of the above 4-5 months ago. Most brokerages were not even open to recession until Dec 2007 and once Abu Dhabi invested in Citigroup they were all happy to call the bottom with "smart money" pouring it. Anyhow, this type of exposure on a day like today helps offset the long positions very nicely. Have a good day.
India is Thirsty for Energy: Will the Bulls Take Notice?
I like Reliant and I'd like to get to the parent of Tata Motors (Tata itself)
It is too bad there are so few choices in US for investing in India... mostly banks and IT outsourcing firms.
Any Hope Left for Thornburg after Devastating Action and 50% Drop?
You make a good point. I guess my earlier comments were for systematic falls, not 60% drops in 1 day. I am not particularly holding this for a "break even", but generally after a 2-3 day swoon you get some jump back and I can sell at a smaller loss.
Almost nothing has been allowed to go bankrupt and I believe with TMA, while highly leveraged as assets that are worth something and if nothing else perhaps a CFC type of buyout for a small premium.
This one is not as much about the US homeowner which I continue to believe is in bad trouble, but simply a crisis of confidence. I'll be interested to see if a bidder comes in for TMA... much worse companies than TMA have not been forced into bankruptcy, so I somehow doubt TMA will. Doesn't mean it cannot go to $2 however.
I have had very limited exposure in any sort of financial due to my belief in the same concept of Shedlock and Ritholtz - so again this was a calculated risk that blew up of course :) Sometimes it happens. We'll see if we can get a $5-$6 bid over time and get out with a smaller loss. Thankfully not a huge part of the portfolio but still an unwanted sting.
Why I'm Buying DR Horton as a Trade
"big picture I think the easy money in SHORTING housing has been made"
I expect a lot of sideways actions punctuated by the rallies whenever people figure a housing recovery is imminent. This should continue for a few years, until it is finally true. But hard to see them going down another 50%.
Why I'm Buying DR Horton as a Trade
This is a crazy market where almost no company is allowed to go bankrupt. If the banks ever pulled the plug on SPF and not change their terms they would of been out of business. Same goes with a few other home builders. Frankly I am not sure if there is some mandate from "up above" not to let these guys fail or if there is just so much liquidity out there that banks are willing to keep extending new and variable credit to these homebuilders (the latter would make little sense considering the credit crunch)
Ty, I'm worried about retail. Consumer is crunched and inflation is high - not something that retailers of discretionary items want to hear. I'd be cautious but like financials and homebuilders we'll see big rallies from time to time so if your timing is good you might nail some great rallies (which will be sold off in my opinion soon thereafter)
Leo, in a better market I think this would of been a better trade (DHI was actually up today somehow) :) In this market, unfortunately, the market itself seems to dictate the price action of many stocks. This individual position is what I consider a big risk but its not a huge part of the portfolio so we'll see where it goes. I am not worried about them going bankrupt unlike some of the lower tier names, so if nothing else its going to be a paper loss and sideways action for a while. Sometime in the next 2 months I am sure we will get a "housing will recover within 6 months" rally and even if its a bad short term trade it should work out in the longer run. Big picture I think the easy money in housing has been made and we'll have a lot of hopeful rallies over the next 2 years before a real turn in the housing market happens. Until then, they can be traded I suppose.
Moving Cash from Fertilizer to Powershares DB Agriculture Fund
Crops are due for a pullback simply because a bunch of hedge funds are piling in, but I think any pullbacks are buying opportunity. I always try to scale in and out of positions so I think this will help people not catch the top. My main problem at this point was "everyone" wants into these commodities so it makes it a lot more tricky, once a story is known and everyone is in... I expect a lot of volatility but the long term macro issues remain unchanged.
Why I'm Buying Foster Wheeler on Its Earnings Miss
I find people pick and choose favorites in this sector based on the most recent Q. A few quarters ago MDR was my top position and it was going like gangbusters. Then a "disappointing&qu... quarter and you'd think the company was going out of business. People only have 90 day windows in this day and age -this is a very difficult business to have a 90 day window on... BUT FWLT might be an underperformer for next 90 days until their next earnings report when all will be forgotten. But I find their valuation compelling vs JEC, FLR etc. And again I like the Middle East exposure - hard to find companies who are exposed so fully to those petrol dollars.
If the market tanks I can see FWLT selling off, but if we have a stable market I can see it basing here in the low to mid $60s for a while, before remounting a new run. Unfortunately I am very wary of the market so we could see a reversion back below key technical levels, but I'd be even more interested at lower levels. Valuation on 2008 estimates (even if a bit high as the bears might argue) is becoming very compelling the lower we go.
China Medical on Road to Recovery
Nice report today from CMED. Perhaps we get a pullback in next market correction.