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PK2013

PK2013
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  • Tracking Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio - Q3 2014 Update [View article]
    Big question is what is one trade that he has requested to keep secret. Is it K?
    Nov 19, 2014. 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Just Sold Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
    If you think BRK market cap is 175B, you should sell it.
    Nov 13, 2014. 10:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Opportunity Knocks, It's Wise To Open The Door - Low Valuation Trumps Growth [View article]
    Shame on Apple & Twitter for partnering with "old, stodgy, no growth, bureaucratic, too-big-to-be-nimble" IBM.
    Oct 29, 2014. 10:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Likely Happened To Dividend Growth Retirees In The Recessions [View article]
    DGI is the new gold.
    Oct 22, 2014. 09:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solving The Mystery Of 10 By 10 - How Does A Dividend Growth Investor Get From Point A To Point B? [View article]
    Thanks
    Oct 22, 2014. 12:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solving The Mystery Of 10 By 10 - How Does A Dividend Growth Investor Get From Point A To Point B? [View article]
    Do we have to pay dividend tax on the dividend money that we put back in DRIP?
    Oct 21, 2014. 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Nifty Fifty, Part 1 - Dividend Growth Style [View article]
    Chowder - I think you deleted your comment. Anyhow, this is what I had replied :

    Would you buy PG or WMT if they shoot to 150 tomorrow?

    (as an aside - a few months back, I did read each and every of your comment on SA! among many other long hours of others' comments. I have been a lurker DGI addict:-). I do get your point about income that is acceptable to the owner and that is very likely to keep growing - hopefully faster than cost of living. This is my core strategy.
    Munger in one of his talks mentioned about stock market being like a particular type of horse betting .... teaching point being that any strategy that is too popular will not do well going forward.
    Oct 18, 2014. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Nifty Fifty, Part 1 - Dividend Growth Style [View article]
    You are correct Chowder. It will continue to work for almost forever for those who got in at the right time - just like those who got in WMT HD or MSFT in their early days.
    If DGI becomes the new bubble, those who will get in at that time may have to wait a long long time before they get even...... just like housing bubble or tech bubble victims.
    Out of all the strategies that I have researched, DGI is the best. But even this would have not done too well in early 1990s - early 2000s decade. We have to keep in mind that last 40-50-60-100 years study does include last 30 years - that has been a big bubble in fixed income side. Who knows it will continue or not, though it sure seems that central bankers have been cornered and have a gun on their heads by the leverage addicted financial mafia.
    I did check how DGI would have done in 1970s - time when interest rates were quite high - ie giving tough competition to dividend yields. It did beat S&P by a narrow margin - 8ish% vs 9ish% but naturally my sample size was too small.
    Valuation on some of our pretty darlings is already close to historic highs and finding good opportunities is tough. A Fed mis-step could be of some use here.
    Oct 18, 2014. 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Nifty Fifty, Part 1 - Dividend Growth Style [View article]
    Unfortunately, any strategy that gets too popular will under-perform in near future.
    Oct 18, 2014. 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The 'Buffett Put' Provides Berkshire With Perpetual Positive Asymmetry Hidden In Plain Sight [View article]
    A few problems:

    BRK BV is fluid and when stock market is down, its BV will move down. WB may not buy at 120% of BV of previous quarter.

    If market craters, WB may find better value elsewhere.

    Put options on BRK dont generate enough premium income due to lack of dividends.

    BRK is heavily pegged to US economy and US economy is not guaranteed to grow at 4% a yr.
    Oct 7, 2014. 09:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Consider Adding To An Already Oversize Position In Berkshire? [View article]
    Define risk
    Oct 6, 2014. 11:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Consider Adding To An Already Oversize Position In Berkshire? [View article]
    Fed is now 80+ yr old. Things aint what they used to be in 1930s. Financials per se is not synonymous with risk - irresponsible leverage is. WFC is so conservative, they declined loan to even BRK in 2000-01. Geico is very conservative after their last rendezvous with toxic leverage in 1976. Gen Re got rid of all the alphabet soup in 2003-07 period.

    BRK's assorted collection of financials is the best we can find and boy do they make money!
    Oct 5, 2014. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Talk About The Nifty Fifty And Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    20% Fed
    10% CA
    3.8% tax on investment gains
    0.9% special medicare tax on high earners
    Sep 30, 2014. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirees, You CAN Count On Dividend Stocks To Deliver From Here [View article]
    Plenty.

    The reasons that DA stocks do well is not because of the dividends. .. though dividends do help.
    Sep 30, 2014. 02:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Talk About The Nifty Fifty And Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    If there is ever a valid criticism of DGI strategy, it is that it imposes a tax burden on you and many people may not like that a lot. I pay 30-35% on qualified dividends.
    Problem is that most high quality companies throw off so much cash and have so poor capital allocation skills in their CEOs that they have no choice but to pay dividends ...... which, BTW, also helps to reduce equity base and boosts ROE.

    I know of only one high quality company that does not pay dividend - BRK.
    Sep 30, 2014. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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