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Three Cheese Fondue

Three Cheese Fondue
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  • Spain's Banking System: Circling The Drain [View article]
    Good point, except...what does "helping" Spain entail, exactly? Specifically, can the French be certain that all "help" to Spain will be repaid?
    Jul 19, 2012. 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Double Bottom In 30-Year Treasury Yields: End Of The Bond Bull Market? [View article]
    And along comes the zillionth article predicting the end of the bond "bubble". Sheesh. Everyone wants to be able to say "I nailed it!".

    By the way, it's only a double bottom in hindsight. That is, for trading purposes, it will either turn out to be a double bottom or it will not. You can't know until after the event.
    Jul 19, 2012. 11:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: It's Not About The Reason; It's About ... [View article]
    Oh come on, the market is rallying because sentiment is poor and economic growth is slowing even from its paltry current rate.
    You've only got to look at a chart of SPX going back years to see the troughs followed by vicious rallies followed by vicious troughs. It's a game, always has been, always will be.
    It will drop in time, QE or no QE, but only when the big accounts are positioned for it and agree that the time is right.
    Jul 19, 2012. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Hope For QE3, But It Will Not Be Enough [View article]
    Fiscal policy is circumscribed by practical limits. The US cannot run trillion dollar-plus annual deficits for much longer. Well, it probably could, if those deficits were being monetised by the Fed. But doing so would simply drive the dollar down by an equal amount, thereby rendering any impact largely negligible. I believe this is what we have seen in the UK.
    When there is no money, there is no magic solution. In fact, there is no solution, other than to destroy the debt, by paying it off or cancelling it.
    Jul 18, 2012. 10:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Morning - Little Reason To Rise [View article]
    Shorts have been roasted and toasted? What a load of guff.
    The market goes up and the market goes down. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
    Jul 18, 2012. 09:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Way Wednesday: Beige Book Boogie [View article]
    " they all lay out the evidence of man-made global warming/influence so that any halfway educated person could understand."

    Sorry, that's where you're going wrong, because most of the comments on here are from crackpots for whom being half-way educated is but a long-lost dream.

    Probably the 40% of Americans who believe we all came from a single man and woman who ate a bloody apple from a bloody apple tree thereby condemning all humans to be sinful forevermore are the same people who bring such weighty cognitive insights to bear on their consideration of whether or not global warming is in any way induced by the behaviour of humans.

    What *IS* it about the Yanks that makes so many of them so stupid?
    Jul 18, 2012. 07:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.K. Is The Real Epicenter Of This Crisis [View article]
    Some of what the author of this piece has to say makes sense, some does not.
    The UK is not by any stretch of the imagination a socialist country, but like most if not all non-US developed countries, it has a bloated welfare state which has grown over the decades from what were noble ideals into some kind of Leviathan which resists any and all efforts to control its growth. This can be readily seen in what is almost laughably called "austerity" which is what it is claimed is being implemented in the UK but which has yet to even reduce government spending year-on-year.

    The author states that:
    "The EUR/GBP exchange rate I believe will actually rise in value. This was indeed the case in the 2008 financial crisis- the pound fell much harder than the euro."

    However what he has failed to realise is that the UK acted quickly to short up its imploding financial system, which required a huge amount of borrowing, and at the same time launched an incredibly aggressive policy of QE. The EZ countries did not do this, and only over time have we seen the true state of the EZ's banking system reveal itself, with incremental steps by the ECB to prevent an implosion as necessary. So yes, sterling fell first, almost to parity with the euro, but where is it now? Almost back to where it was before the crisis started. It is the dollar that sterling is still weak against. But the US economy has been supported throughout Obama's term with trillion dollar-plus deficits each year. What has that bought the US exactly? The US cannot continue to run these deficits.
    What do you think will happen to US growth when the US HAS to do what the UK is doing? What do you think will happen to the dollar? What do you think will happen to global growth?
    Jul 18, 2012. 07:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portugal: Please Switch Off The Lights When You Leave [View article]
    Excellent article, but difficult to put to use for the purposes of making filthy lucre (unless you're a dab hand at buying and selling Portuguese government debt perhaps).

    The demographic problem will probably apply to most developed countries; even the UK with its massive (too massive, if you'll forgive my grammar) immigration problem and higher birthrate in recent years will be labouring under an unhealthily large number of dependants (old and young) drawing from an unhealthily dwindling pool of contributors in the not-too-distant future. The implication is clear: the future is not bright; it's fecking grim unless you're fecking rich.
    Jul 15, 2012. 06:31 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Season Trading Strategy: Time To Catch Falling Knives [View article]
    "The stock price immediately gaps sharply lower as investors react to the company specific news. But once this sudden wave of selling is completed, the stock often finds a bottom and begins to gradually recover."

    Often? Have you performed a comprehensive analysis of gaps to support that assertion, because my own experience is that in a shitty market such as we have had since 2008 and will probably have for years yet stocks that gap down invariably wander sideways for months before deciding whether to come up for a little air or just sag lower as if under the force of gravity.
    Jul 15, 2012. 06:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today In Commodities: Friday The 13th Not Very Superstitious [View article]
    I wouldn't want to short 30 year bonds myself. It looks too easy/obvious a trade, therefore I'd rather wait for a probe of the highs.
    Jul 14, 2012. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Friday The 13th Bad News Bulls [View article]
    I think you're spot-on. The market loves to outflank as many as possible, and Friday was a typical example (yes I was caught as well - I had expected it push up to high 30s/ low 40s on ES).
    I would be *very* surprised if we didn't see a test of the yearly lows, but the market will want to shake as many shorts out as possible before it does so, with moves not dissimilar to Friday's, and it will probably take its time also, to make as many puts expire worthless as is possible to do.
    Could be a test of the recent high at mid-1370s on SPX next week, or even a continuation of the bear flag taking us a little higher up to maybe 1380.
    I'm watching for a proper breakdown of bonds to confirm any 'game-changing' move higher.
    Jul 14, 2012. 12:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why EUR Could Rally Even If ECB Cuts Rates [View article]
    Or...maybe not.
    I'll look to buying EUR when I think the bottom is in for the year. At only half-way through the year, with the bottom so far some 100 SPX points below us, the ECB has just cut, the China CB has just cut, and the BoE has QEased again. If the prognosis for global growth is so good, why are they stimulatin', and why now?
    I want to see more blood before I start getting long EUR, which I see as pretty much a risk-on trade.
    Jul 5, 2012. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q2 2012 Market Review - Europe Dictates Market Direction [View article]
    On reflection, my comment is unfair, since you clearly state in the title "Q2 2012 Market Review".
    Jul 5, 2012. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q2 2012 Market Review - Europe Dictates Market Direction [View article]
    I'm sorry Sir to not have anything positive to say, but these types of articles really are the least useful type of article on SA that one could hope not to stumble across. What you've essentially done here is written a rather dull history article. If you had sat down and written the title first ("This is what happened in Q1/Q2 2012") then the article's contents would have been quite apposite. Unfortunately history articles are both uninteresting (we all already know what happened in the first six months of this year) and unhelpful (where is the insight? Where is the (perhaps contentious) speculation?) when it comes to the fine arts of investing and trading.

    Just my thoughts; best regards.
    Jul 5, 2012. 08:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EU Rescues Markets Just In Time - Again [View article]
    You mean "dissent", not "decent".
    Jul 2, 2012. 08:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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