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Three Cheese Fondue

Three Cheese Fondue
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  • A Goldman Bet That May Sink The Ship [View article]
    Indeed. And although I have zero knowledge and experience of the inner workings of entities such as GS, I would have thought the idea that they act as a monolithic entity, placing huge directional bets without appropriate hedging, slightly naive. Sure, it happens, but you expect GS to be a cut above the rest.
    Jun 11, 2012. 07:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Data Doesn't Contraindicate Modest Growth [View article]
    Totally agree. I've been watching (as of course many do) jobless claims every week for signs that the armageddon predicted by the bond markets and indeed it seems by most of the hysterical media (mainstream or otherwise) is actually going to eventuate. And, simply, it has not (or at least, not yet).
    I've seen it said that the correlation between jobless claims and SPX is very high (perhaps the highest of all indicators) so this is worth watching.

    Btw, that quote - "Growth is weak, but so is the argument that we’re falling off a cliff" - priceless, and couldn't have put it better myself.
    Jun 7, 2012. 08:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Surprise Ending For The European Drama? [View article]
    Great article.
    I especially like the point about everyone expecting a big bang solution, when what will come will be incremental pieces of the pie.

    Spain 10 years have dropped for six days in a row now, from 6.7% to touching 6% today. Does anyone care? How many have noticed?
    Jun 7, 2012. 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Move To Mobile Is Bearish For Internet Titans [View article]
    Interesting article, which puts to paper similar thoughts that crossed my mind (but which I discounted as just meanderings) a while ago.
    It is possible that the point(s) that you raise here is already being reflected in the GOOG chart.

    May 30, 2012. 06:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 Looking Better Than Gold [View article]
    Like whalercat says, dollar up, stocks down, but gold up.
    Yesterday, stocks up, dollar up, and gold down.
    Gold tested 1530-40 area again today after yest'day's bearish engulfing, third time, third time rejected.
    But still, this is all inconclusive and the big picture is one of declining highs.
    May 30, 2012. 06:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Euro Crisis? [View article]
    That is not a cure for the cause; merely for some of the symptoms.
    The PIIGS need to address a number of issues, some common to all, some less so. In other words, each country has its own problems that it needs to address; to the extent that any one country has problems that have not been addressed to the satisfaction of the markets, that country's debt is priced accordingly.
    Waving a magic wand that causes monies to become available to distressed states at a "reasonable" rate does not incentivise them to fix the underlying problems with their economies.
    May 30, 2012. 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Stocks To Trade, And What's Next For The Market [View article]
    I see. Thanks.
    May 30, 2012. 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Silver - The End Is Near! [View article]
    Big bearish engulfing on gold today (haven't checked silver). It could be just games but tomorrow could be do or die for the bulls. Any follow-through on today's weakness would suggest 1500 will soon be history. It's a bit odd in the context of the economic backdrop but it is what it is.
    May 29, 2012. 07:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Silver - The End Is Near! [View article]
    "For those who are extremely risk adverse, you can sell cash covered puts on both metals."

    What is a cash covered put because it sounds suspiciously like a naked put, which is anything but a strategy for those who are risk averse.
    May 29, 2012. 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard (HPQ): FQ2 EPS of $0.98 beats by $0.07. Revenue of $30.69B (-3% Y/Y) beats by $770M. Expects FQ3 EPS of $0.94-$0.97, below $1.02 consensus. Expects FY12 EPS of $4.05-$4.10, above $4.03 consensus. Shares +7.1% AH. (PR)  [View news story]
    FY12e exp $4 on a $21 stock and people wonder why it didn't tank like Dell? How cheap do you want it for f*** sake?
    May 24, 2012. 06:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Quit Jicky Jackin Around' [View article]
    2.15pm buy program or not, it was a reasonable bet that the 1295 area presented a decent R/R long opportunity on ES.
    May 24, 2012. 05:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Stocks To Trade, And What's Next For The Market [View article]
    "We have a reverse iron condor in PAY."

    Sorry, what is a reverse iron condor? Thanks in advance.
    May 23, 2012. 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For Dell And Analog Devices [View article]
    Ok, maybe 3/46 is not a huge miss in percentage terms, but if the market was expecting the whisper number, or the consensus number (of course it makes no difference as they are the same), it certainly didn't consider it a moderate miss, considering the stock is trading down 18%. But granted, there are factors other than the headline number at play.

    If I knew the earnings were going to be 43, I would have stayed out. Which I did anyway, so it makes no difference.

    Thanks anyway.
    May 23, 2012. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Testy Tuesday: All Better Or Just Bouncing? [View article]
    Don't be such a fool. 401ks are long term plans; in the short-term all kinds of machinations go on with all kinds of actors deviously involved but in the long term it's TPTB that set the parameters within and according to which the economy, and the markets that track it, must function.
    As traders/investors we do our best to play a rigged game. As Phil says, sure, it's rigged; you need to know that and have a go at gaming their games in order to be able to make anything out of this game.
    May 22, 2012. 06:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We're Off To See The Wizard [View article]
    Bit of a weird article. You spend most of it talking about how the Chinese are unlikely to be able to forestall a perhaps significant contraction which will have significant and deleterious ramifications on various markets, and just before the end, you slip in the line that you believe the drop in commodities will be an enormous stimulus to the US economy.
    Perhaps you should just make it easy for us and tell us whether you are bullish or bearish on equities from here. Man speak with forked tongue!
    May 22, 2012. 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment