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Three Cheese Fondue

Three Cheese Fondue
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  • Momentum Will Push Apple To $105 By Year-End [View article]

    Fair enough mate, it just appears to me to be that way, but if it appears to be different to you, like I said, fair enough.
    Jul 11 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Breathe Deeply, Embrace Tim Cook And Hold Until $120 [View article]
    This is dangerous stuff indeed. You can end up with all kinds of problems by selling near-term options and expecting to be "covered" with a LEAP.
    It is NOT without risk. In fact, it comes with substantial risk.
    I know because I tried it once with TWTR (I think it was TWTR). I was long a LEAP call and a short near-term call. I had planned to do exactly what you are doing. What could possibly go wrong, I thought. I'm hedged. Well, not quite.
    Basically, TWTR went up (as I expected it to) but the LEAP hardly went up at all whereas the near-term (short) option exploded, leaving me with significant losses on that leg.
    Furthermore, usually when stocks go up IV goes down. When IV goes down, guess what gets hammered the most? That's right, the far end, i.e. LEAP options.
    I think TWTR went up maybe 5 - 10% over a few days, and my LEAP went virtually nowhere, or maybe even went down in value. Meanwhile my short options had exploded.
    So, yeah, it didn't quite work out the way I had anticipated it to.
    Jul 11 06:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum Will Push Apple To $105 By Year-End [View article]

    Are you cognitively challenged? The point I was making with that sentence, if you had bothered to make it past the semicolon (that's the thing at the end that looks like a comma but with a dot on top) is that whether you are buying or selling AAPL as a trader or an investor, it makes no difference, because nothing is certain, i.e. we can all do what we think is the best analysis in the world, be it fundamental, technical, sentiment or some other type, but at the end of the day, whether you be trading or investing, the market will do what it will do, which is to say, it is unpredictable.

    If you have difficulty understanding that, then it is your opinion, in my opinion, that is worthless.

    All the best mate,
    Jul 11 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum Will Push Apple To $105 By Year-End [View article]
    I keep getting headlines in IB's TWS telling me AAPL is in the top xxx most shorted stocks.
    I haven't done my due diligence so maybe they are being 'economical with the actualité'. On one measure they must be correct, but on your measure (which makes more sense) AAPL is perhaps not very much shorted. Which is fine by me, and would make more sense given what I am coming across on SA and elsewhere.
    The lower the short interest, the more likely it goes down IMO but this is trading (or investing, makes no difference); nothing is certain.
    I just think we can't have this much bullishness (going by SA's AAPL articles and comments thereupon where absolutely any negative viewpoint is trampled upon by the angry bulls' thundering hooves) after this strong a run and actually see it repaid in the market with even higher prices.
    Well, I say, can't. More like, I would be surprised. But anything can happen in the markets, so let's see.
    This is an interesting experiment for me.
    Jul 11 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum Will Push Apple To $105 By Year-End [View article]
    What the world needs: another bullish SA article, another bullish price target on AAPL.
    On the one hand, raging bulls on SA.
    On the other, AAPL is apparently one of the most shorted stocks. Yes, I was shocked given the foaming at the mouth bullishness on SA, both amongst the article writers (outside MB) and the commentards.
    Result: a reasonable chance it goes nowhere for a long time, frustrating both camps.
    Jul 11 01:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Breathe Deeply, Embrace Tim Cook And Hold Until $120 [View article]
    "Anyone that takes a look at this one year chart and tries to tell you that the company isn't tearing upwards in the midst of a strong uptrend should probably not be looking at stock charts for a living."

    Perhaps you have a point. It will be interesting to look back in a few months and find out.
    Jul 9 11:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Swift: The Real Reason To Buy [View article]
    Yeah, because what the world needs, is more apps.
    Jul 8 01:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good News: Risk Aversion Is Declining [View article]
    LOL. You couldn't make it up.

    "Everyone has been very risk averse, but risk aversion is declining"

    Yes, everyone has been so risk averse they pushed the Dow to 17k, the SPX to within a whisker of 2000, and the VIX to multiyear lows, a whisker from single digits.
    Jul 8 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Payroll Corroboration, Or Lack Of It [View article]
    Very good work, and thanks.
    Of course, what we do with this analysis and information is up to us.
    Jul 4 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2008: How To Avoid A Common Bear Market Mistake [View article]
    You make good points, but implicit in what you say is an unshakeable belief in not selling, regardless of how low stocks go.
    It's quite easy to look back now and say that, but at the time, it was the most incredible bear market, seemingly with no end.
    And of course, even if we were cognizant that there had to be a "lowest low", we had no idea where that was, and furthermore, we had no idea what the recovery path for stocks would look like.
    Somebody who is reliant on their stock portfolio to see them through retirement and who is looking at that portfolio haemorrhaging by the day is going to find it pretty difficult not to cull some positions.
    Jul 1 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Will End In Tears, But When? (Part 1) [View article]
    Looks like we are seeing a blow-off top in the making prior to the cessation of QE3.
    Buying this distance from the 200dma this late in a bull run seems like madness but it's working for the buyers. In time, I guess we'll all look back and there will be a 10% drop from somewhere not far north of here and as ever it will look kinda obvious that a big drop was coming, but it always looks kinda obvious when looking back on a historical chart with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.
    Jul 1 11:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Sales Much Better Monthly, Context Still Ugly [View article]
    The title of the article mentions new home sales, which are released by the Census Bureau. The article meanwhile discusses existing home sales, which are released by the NAR. Or am I misunderstanding something?
    Jun 27 07:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bond Market's Pessimism Is Vindicated [View article]
    Not quite.
    There is a difference between seeing the economic situation through rose-tinted glasses and being a bull on the stock market.
    I am not accusing CBP of being a bull on the stock market; I am referring to his view of the economic situation. He may be one, but I am not sure and I have no inclination to research all his articles so I will simply back down graciously and say that perhaps my permabull appellation was a little unfair to him.

    But you are correct: the stock market bulls have been right for five-plus years, now. Well done to you if you are one of them.
    I have made money, very good money, but where I have not made it is in stocks. What battles I have fought there have had something of a Pyrrhic quality to them.
    Jun 27 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bond Market's Pessimism Is Vindicated [View article]
    Sounds like CBP has finally taken off his rose-tinted glasses.
    I thought I noticed a subtle change of stance in another recent article and this confirms it. I think he realises at last, truly belatedly, that this is truly a crappy recovery, as described by many in the comments on his permabull articles, and any individual data print that "beats" or surprises to the upside, is pretty much meaningless in the grand scheme of things.
    Here we are, after years of near-ZIRP in the U.S., UK, Japan, and EZ (NIRPing not ZIRPing), 3+ rounds of QE in the U.S., 4.5 trillion on the Fed's balance sheet, and things are just crawling along.
    Can't wait till the taper is over. Just a few months now, let's see if they have the guts to finish it.
    Jun 27 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Next Few Weeks, Seen By Market-Makers. What Then? [View article]
    I would consider myself somebody of reasonable intelligence but I find this article quite difficult to comprehend. Whether that is because the substance of it is beyond my comprehension or rather the unfortunate presentation of that substance has made it beyond my comprehension I do not know, but I suspect it is a bit of both.

    Still, I'll take the closing paragraph.
    Jun 27 09:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment