The Most Deceptive And Dangerous Financial Headline I Have Ever Seen [View article]
SDNS, ManhattanEric has listed James' articles below
(1. This Rally Should Be Sold And Shorted - Oct 6, 2011
2. This Is A Bear Market: Get Used To It, And Invest Accordingly - Oct 7, 2011
3. Global Financial Disaster Looms: European Banks Face Bankruptcy - Oct 18, 2011
4. Upside Window Closing: Initiating Shorts Now - Nov 5, 2011
5. Prepare For Europe Collapse Before New Year - Nov 11,2011
6. ECB Set To Disappoint The World: Stock Collapse Will Result - Nov 14, 2011
7. Deflating The Bullish Case For Stocks - Nov 20, 2011
8. A 'Lehman Event' May Be Near - Dec 8, 2011
9. James Kostohryz Positions For 2012: 100% Cash The Only Way To Play This Market - Dec 21, 2011 )
It looks to me like he was wrong.
I would however like to re-emphasise that, for me, it isn't his being wrong that matters; it's his refusal to accept and state that he was wrong. We all get it wrong. I've got today totally wrong - I was short and caught napping by the PMI data and I've just given back two weeks' worth of profits. It sucks but it is what it is. It's not being wrong that irks me - it's refusing to accept that one was wrong. Of course this game is about timing probably more than anything else; so early calls (= wrong calls) don't cut it, because it's the account balance that counts.
The Most Deceptive And Dangerous Financial Headline I Have Ever Seen [View article]
Oh come on James, you need to (as the saying goes) "man up" and accept that your call was wrong, even if your reasons were right. It is evident to anyone with half a brain that you were wrong. I think the fact that you refuse to accept that you were wrong is far worse that being wrong in the first place.
You may be right from here, however. But I wouldn't presume to know.
James Kostohryz Positions For 2012: 100% Cash The Only Way To Play This Market [View article]
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... Autarky is the quality of being self-sufficient. Usually the term is applied to political states or their economic systems.
What is it you object to: the use of words that perfectly convey the intended meaning, or words that you find challenge your limited vocabulary in a way that makes you feel like the dim-witted straw-chewing simpleton that you are?
The S&P 500 Today Versus The 2007 Peak [View article]
Surely talk of an average American's share of GDP is a little facile, since we know that as each year passes more wealth is accumulated by the richest members of society (if you can call it a society) at the expense of those further down? Pretty sure I've read a number of times that since 2007 the super rich have done incredibly well; the middle class and below, well, I think you know.
Wunderbar Wednesday: $650Bn ESM Approved - So What? [View article]
"By 2025 we'll be lucky if the average fleet mpg is 30" Well that will be truly pathetic, if true. There is a place that you may or may not have heard of, called Europe, where average fuel economy is at least double that of the US. Over here, 30mpg would be pathetic in any new car manufactured at least in the last 15, 20, who knows, years, unless it was in the supercar league. As an example, the current Porsche Carrera (http://bit.ly/OgSfxk) does 29.7mpg in the combined cycle, 39.8mpg extra urban. Do you really think it is beyond the wit of your auto industry to muster a fleet average fuel efficiency in 13 years' time that is only as good as a Porsche Carrera manufactured in 2012?
Sorry, but if the aim of this article is to help us make money, then it is useless.
" I believe the rally we’re experiencing now is actually a cyclical bull market that could easily go on for the remainder of 2012, assuming the European crisis doesn’t take a turn for the worse and we don’t experience other unforeseen market shocks."
Well, there's the rub. Like you say, it could go on all year, except if something bad happens, in which case it might not. Do you know if something bad will happen? No.
The IV of AMZN options for expiry this Friday is around an eye-watering 140-150%. The price of the just OTM puts and calls (with AMZN at 217, 215 and 220 respectively) is around 8 dollars. The deltas on those are around 0.33, so roughly the market is only seeing a 1 in 3 chance that the price will be trading only as far away from the current price to the next put down (a couple of dollars) or the next call up (five dollars) by Friday. I'm no options geek but does that not suggest that the most likely movement is little or no movement in whichever direction? I don't know, but it will be interesting to find out. You pays your money, you takes your choice.
Portugal: Please Switch Off The Lights When You Leave [View article]
Excellent article, but difficult to put to use for the purposes of making filthy lucre (unless you're a dab hand at buying and selling Portuguese government debt perhaps).
The demographic problem will probably apply to most developed countries; even the UK with its massive (too massive, if you'll forgive my grammar) immigration problem and higher birthrate in recent years will be labouring under an unhealthily large number of dependants (old and young) drawing from an unhealthily dwindling pool of contributors in the not-too-distant future. The implication is clear: the future is not bright; it's fecking grim unless you're fecking rich.
The Eurozone Crisis Is Slowly Fading Away [View article]
Is that so? I read this recently:
"The European Central Bank (ECB) would only have to see its assets fall by around 4% for its capital base to be wiped out, think tank Open Europe has warned. The think tank estimated that overall the ECB is now leveraged around 23 to 24 times, with only €82bn (£73.1bn) in capital and reserves. As a result, should the ECB see its assets fall by just 4.25% in value, from booking losses on its loans or purchases of government debt, its entire capital base could be wiped out. In its report, A House built on sand, Open Europe estimated that the ECB has exposure to struggling Eurozone economies of around €444bn – an amount roughly equivalent to the GDP of Finland and Austria combined. Of this, around €190bn is exposure to the Greek state and Greek banks."
The Big 4 Economic Indicators: Nonfarm Employment [View article]
Rich, the market is just finding a top. ES probably at 1620 should do it. The question is, how long and deep will the correction be? Could be just a load of chop in a small band, say 3-5% for months on end. It is impossible to know.
You have to consider, the result (stocks pushed up big) would probably have been the same regardless of how the jobs report came out - weak report = extended QE, therefore stocks up big. Strong report = strong economy, therefore stocks up big. The playaz have their playbook. They will do what they have to do, which means screwing as many punters as possible, before pulling the plug.
Why QE3 Won't Jump Start The Economy [View article]
By the way, to the author of this piece: thanks; this is a good article. Your argument is compelling; I am however troubled by the fact that this is the first time I have seen this argument made. If the points made are true, it would show how shockingly prevalent the groupthink in the markets really is.
Why QE3 Won't Jump Start The Economy [View article]
eh? prevents liquidation of MBS assets? That assumes that MBS assets would have been liquidated had the Federal Reserve not bought them. How do you know that to be true, given Congress put a gun to the FASB's head and told them to accept mark-to-myth on bank assets, thereby allowing the banks to sit on bad assets for as long as they need to, which, by all accounts, is what they have done?
Very good Paulo. I would only add a few caveats as I see them to what you say. First, as measured either in growth metrics, or SPX points, QE2 (1200-1350) was less effective than QE1 (800-1200). I expect QE3 to be less effective than QE2 per dollar of stimulus but I'm NOT a QE wonk so I'm not sure how well the comparisons of QE1/2/3 dollars will work out given that they differ qualitatively (e.g. QE3 being purchases of MBS). Second, QE3 has of the three been the most anticipated, and therefore there is a significant amount of expectations already priced into the market. Third, everyone thinks the market is now a slam-dunk long, and indeed one feels like an idiot to even publicly contemplate being short at this point, such is the power of the prevailing consensus that "it must go up".
I don't know where the market is going (down then up, up then down, down then down etc), and indeed there are many possible trajectories for the market (indeed infinite depending on the granularity), but I would caution (myself) against being long right now given the above points.
Market To Economy: Heads I Win, Tails You Lose [View article]
SA editors must be asleep at the wheel in labelling this an Editor's Pick article. I appreciate all efforts to post content, but this article is just a rehash of the prevailing sentiment that I've read a thousand times already.
Never mind Leo, you can't be right all of the time buddy. AMZN currently trading at 219, down..... 0.44% post-earnings. The option writers win, again. I rest my case.
The Most Deceptive And Dangerous Financial Headline I Have Ever Seen [View article]
(1. This Rally Should Be Sold And Shorted - Oct 6, 2011
2. This Is A Bear Market: Get Used To It, And Invest Accordingly - Oct 7, 2011
3. Global Financial Disaster Looms: European Banks Face Bankruptcy - Oct 18, 2011
4. Upside Window Closing: Initiating Shorts Now - Nov 5, 2011
5. Prepare For Europe Collapse Before New Year - Nov 11,2011
6. ECB Set To Disappoint The World: Stock Collapse Will Result - Nov 14, 2011
7. Deflating The Bullish Case For Stocks - Nov 20, 2011
8. A 'Lehman Event' May Be Near - Dec 8, 2011
9. James Kostohryz Positions For 2012: 100% Cash The Only Way To Play This Market - Dec 21, 2011
)
It looks to me like he was wrong.
I would however like to re-emphasise that, for me, it isn't his being wrong that matters; it's his refusal to accept and state that he was wrong.
We all get it wrong. I've got today totally wrong - I was short and caught napping by the PMI data and I've just given back two weeks' worth of profits. It sucks but it is what it is. It's not being wrong that irks me - it's refusing to accept that one was wrong. Of course this game is about timing probably more than anything else; so early calls (= wrong calls) don't cut it, because it's the account balance that counts.
The Most Deceptive And Dangerous Financial Headline I Have Ever Seen [View article]
I think the fact that you refuse to accept that you were wrong is far worse that being wrong in the first place.
You may be right from here, however. But I wouldn't presume to know.
James Kostohryz Positions For 2012: 100% Cash The Only Way To Play This Market [View article]
Autarky is the quality of being self-sufficient. Usually the term is applied to political states or their economic systems.
What is it you object to: the use of words that perfectly convey the intended meaning, or words that you find challenge your limited vocabulary in a way that makes you feel like the dim-witted straw-chewing simpleton that you are?
The S&P 500 Today Versus The 2007 Peak [View article]
Wunderbar Wednesday: $650Bn ESM Approved - So What? [View article]
Well that will be truly pathetic, if true. There is a place that you may or may not have heard of, called Europe, where average fuel economy is at least double that of the US. Over here, 30mpg would be pathetic in any new car manufactured at least in the last 15, 20, who knows, years, unless it was in the supercar league. As an example, the current Porsche Carrera (http://bit.ly/OgSfxk)
does 29.7mpg in the combined cycle, 39.8mpg extra urban. Do you really think it is beyond the wit of your auto industry to muster a fleet average fuel efficiency in 13 years' time that is only as good as a Porsche Carrera manufactured in 2012?
.
Dissecting Today's Bull Market [View article]
" I believe the rally we’re experiencing now is actually a cyclical bull market that could easily go on for the remainder of 2012, assuming the European crisis doesn’t take a turn for the worse and we don’t experience other unforeseen market shocks."
Well, there's the rub. Like you say, it could go on all year, except if something bad happens, in which case it might not. Do you know if something bad will happen? No.
Really then, not much use at all.
Trading Amazon Before Earnings [View article]
The price of the just OTM puts and calls (with AMZN at 217, 215 and 220 respectively) is around 8 dollars. The deltas on those are around 0.33, so roughly the market is only seeing a 1 in 3 chance that the price will be trading only as far away from the current price to the next put down (a couple of dollars) or the next call up (five dollars) by Friday. I'm no options geek but does that not suggest that the most likely movement is little or no movement in whichever direction? I don't know, but it will be interesting to find out. You pays your money, you takes your choice.
Portugal: Please Switch Off The Lights When You Leave [View article]
The demographic problem will probably apply to most developed countries; even the UK with its massive (too massive, if you'll forgive my grammar) immigration problem and higher birthrate in recent years will be labouring under an unhealthily large number of dependants (old and young) drawing from an unhealthily dwindling pool of contributors in the not-too-distant future. The implication is clear: the future is not bright; it's fecking grim unless you're fecking rich.
The Eurozone Crisis Is Slowly Fading Away [View article]
I read this recently:
"The European Central Bank (ECB) would only have to see its assets fall by around 4% for its capital base to be wiped out, think tank Open Europe has warned.
The think tank estimated that overall the ECB is now leveraged around 23 to 24 times, with only €82bn (£73.1bn) in capital and reserves. As a result, should the ECB see its assets fall by just 4.25% in value, from booking losses on its loans or purchases of government debt, its entire capital base could be wiped out.
In its report, A House built on sand, Open Europe estimated that the ECB has exposure to struggling Eurozone economies of around €444bn – an amount roughly equivalent to the GDP of Finland and Austria combined. Of this, around €190bn is exposure to the Greek state and Greek banks."
Source: http://bit.ly/wURSVZ
And that was in June 2011 - doubtless the ECB's exposure to Greek government debt has increased since then.
Why do you think otherwise to the authors of that report?
The Big 4 Economic Indicators: Nonfarm Employment [View article]
The question is, how long and deep will the correction be? Could be just a load of chop in a small band, say 3-5% for months on end. It is impossible to know.
You have to consider, the result (stocks pushed up big) would probably have been the same regardless of how the jobs report came out - weak report = extended QE, therefore stocks up big. Strong report = strong economy, therefore stocks up big.
The playaz have their playbook. They will do what they have to do, which means screwing as many punters as possible, before pulling the plug.
Why QE3 Won't Jump Start The Economy [View article]
Why QE3 Won't Jump Start The Economy [View article]
There's No Longer A Bernanke Put [View article]
First, as measured either in growth metrics, or SPX points, QE2 (1200-1350) was less effective than QE1 (800-1200). I expect QE3 to be less effective than QE2 per dollar of stimulus but I'm NOT a QE wonk so I'm not sure how well the comparisons of QE1/2/3 dollars will work out given that they differ qualitatively (e.g. QE3 being purchases of MBS).
Second, QE3 has of the three been the most anticipated, and therefore there is a significant amount of expectations already priced into the market.
Third, everyone thinks the market is now a slam-dunk long, and indeed one feels like an idiot to even publicly contemplate being short at this point, such is the power of the prevailing consensus that "it must go up".
I don't know where the market is going (down then up, up then down, down then down etc), and indeed there are many possible trajectories for the market (indeed infinite depending on the granularity), but I would caution (myself) against being long right now given the above points.
Market To Economy: Heads I Win, Tails You Lose [View article]
Trading Amazon Before Earnings [View article]