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Three Cheese Fondue

Three Cheese Fondue
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  • The Most Deceptive And Dangerous Financial Headline I Have Ever Seen [View article]
    SDNS, ManhattanEric has listed James' articles below

    (1. This Rally Should Be Sold And Shorted - Oct 6, 2011

    2. This Is A Bear Market: Get Used To It, And Invest Accordingly - Oct 7, 2011

    3. Global Financial Disaster Looms: European Banks Face Bankruptcy - Oct 18, 2011

    4. Upside Window Closing: Initiating Shorts Now - Nov 5, 2011

    5. Prepare For Europe Collapse Before New Year - Nov 11,2011

    6. ECB Set To Disappoint The World: Stock Collapse Will Result - Nov 14, 2011

    7. Deflating The Bullish Case For Stocks - Nov 20, 2011

    8. A 'Lehman Event' May Be Near - Dec 8, 2011

    9. James Kostohryz Positions For 2012: 100% Cash The Only Way To Play This Market - Dec 21, 2011
    )

    It looks to me like he was wrong.

    I would however like to re-emphasise that, for me, it isn't his being wrong that matters; it's his refusal to accept and state that he was wrong.
    We all get it wrong. I've got today totally wrong - I was short and caught napping by the PMI data and I've just given back two weeks' worth of profits. It sucks but it is what it is. It's not being wrong that irks me - it's refusing to accept that one was wrong. Of course this game is about timing probably more than anything else; so early calls (= wrong calls) don't cut it, because it's the account balance that counts.
    Apr 2 01:52 PM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Deceptive And Dangerous Financial Headline I Have Ever Seen [View article]
    Oh come on James, you need to (as the saying goes) "man up" and accept that your call was wrong, even if your reasons were right. It is evident to anyone with half a brain that you were wrong.
    I think the fact that you refuse to accept that you were wrong is far worse that being wrong in the first place.

    You may be right from here, however. But I wouldn't presume to know.
    Apr 2 12:14 PM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Bubble Time: A Study Of Peak PE For The S&P 500 [View article]
    The lack of equivocation is welcome.
    Apr 11 09:04 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James Kostohryz Positions For 2012: 100% Cash The Only Way To Play This Market [View article]
    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
    Autarky is the quality of being self-sufficient. Usually the term is applied to political states or their economic systems.


    What is it you object to: the use of words that perfectly convey the intended meaning, or words that you find challenge your limited vocabulary in a way that makes you feel like the dim-witted straw-chewing simpleton that you are?
    Dec 21 09:43 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500 Today Versus The 2007 Peak [View article]
    Surely talk of an average American's share of GDP is a little facile, since we know that as each year passes more wealth is accumulated by the richest members of society (if you can call it a society) at the expense of those further down? Pretty sure I've read a number of times that since 2007 the super rich have done incredibly well; the middle class and below, well, I think you know.
    Sep 21 06:36 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Green Light For Gold? [View article]
    Peter Schiff on SA. We are in the presence of royalty!
    Jul 15 09:56 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wunderbar Wednesday: $650Bn ESM Approved - So What? [View article]
    "By 2025 we'll be lucky if the average fleet mpg is 30"
    Well that will be truly pathetic, if true. There is a place that you may or may not have heard of, called Europe, where average fuel economy is at least double that of the US. Over here, 30mpg would be pathetic in any new car manufactured at least in the last 15, 20, who knows, years, unless it was in the supercar league. As an example, the current Porsche Carrera (http://bit.ly/OgSfxk)
    does 29.7mpg in the combined cycle, 39.8mpg extra urban. Do you really think it is beyond the wit of your auto industry to muster a fleet average fuel efficiency in 13 years' time that is only as good as a Porsche Carrera manufactured in 2012?

    .
    Sep 12 12:47 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dissecting Today's Bull Market [View article]
    Sorry, but if the aim of this article is to help us make money, then it is useless.

    " I believe the rally we’re experiencing now is actually a cyclical bull market that could easily go on for the remainder of 2012, assuming the European crisis doesn’t take a turn for the worse and we don’t experience other unforeseen market shocks."

    Well, there's the rub. Like you say, it could go on all year, except if something bad happens, in which case it might not. Do you know if something bad will happen? No.

    Really then, not much use at all.
    Jan 27 06:50 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peter Schiff Is Wrong On Gold... Again [View article]
    Quite a lot, it would seem.
    Mar 20 10:28 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hussman: Topping Patterns And The Proper Cause For Optimism [View article]
    I think you'll know when you look at your account and think "how come I never sold when it first started dropping?".
    Feb 18 02:36 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Amazon Before Earnings [View article]
    The IV of AMZN options for expiry this Friday is around an eye-watering 140-150%.
    The price of the just OTM puts and calls (with AMZN at 217, 215 and 220 respectively) is around 8 dollars. The deltas on those are around 0.33, so roughly the market is only seeing a 1 in 3 chance that the price will be trading only as far away from the current price to the next put down (a couple of dollars) or the next call up (five dollars) by Friday. I'm no options geek but does that not suggest that the most likely movement is little or no movement in whichever direction? I don't know, but it will be interesting to find out. You pays your money, you takes your choice.
    Jul 25 07:28 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portugal: Please Switch Off The Lights When You Leave [View article]
    Excellent article, but difficult to put to use for the purposes of making filthy lucre (unless you're a dab hand at buying and selling Portuguese government debt perhaps).

    The demographic problem will probably apply to most developed countries; even the UK with its massive (too massive, if you'll forgive my grammar) immigration problem and higher birthrate in recent years will be labouring under an unhealthily large number of dependants (old and young) drawing from an unhealthily dwindling pool of contributors in the not-too-distant future. The implication is clear: the future is not bright; it's fecking grim unless you're fecking rich.
    Jul 15 06:31 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Got Mega Millions? Buy Real Estate And Not Stocks, Bonds Or Gold [View article]
    "If someone had bought Philip Morris and Berkshire Hathaway in 1957 and Microsoft in 1985 and then never sold these stocks, I can guarantee you that they would be a lot richer than someone who invested in real estate"
    You do realise the chances of buying the right stock, of the universe of stocks listed in the past 50 years, at the right time, and holding, for the right period of time, is incredibly low, whereas, the chances of buying a property 40 years ago, that's worth a good deal more now, is actually quite high?
    Can you tell us all now, which stocks to buy, that will still be here in 40 years' time, and, more than that, will be doing very well in 40 years' time?
    I can tell you now, that you can buy property almost anywhere in any developed country - UK, USA, Oz, Canada, NZ etc, - that will very probably be worth significantly more in 40 years' time. And what's more, you (or somebody who pays you) gets to live in it, or run a business in, on or from it, for the next 40 years.
    Sure, some stocks can do very well. But which ones? And furthermore, you can't enjoy living in a stock certificate.
    Dec 21 12:46 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Eurozone Crisis Is Slowly Fading Away [View article]
    Is that so?
    I read this recently:

    "The European Central Bank (ECB) would only have to see its assets fall by around 4% for its capital base to be wiped out, think tank Open Europe has warned.
    The think tank estimated that overall the ECB is now leveraged around 23 to 24 times, with only €82bn (£73.1bn) in capital and reserves. As a result, should the ECB see its assets fall by just 4.25% in value, from booking losses on its loans or purchases of government debt, its entire capital base could be wiped out.
    In its report, A House built on sand, Open Europe estimated that the ECB has exposure to struggling Eurozone economies of around €444bn – an amount roughly equivalent to the GDP of Finland and Austria combined. Of this, around €190bn is exposure to the Greek state and Greek banks."

    Source: http://bit.ly/wURSVZ

    And that was in June 2011 - doubtless the ECB's exposure to Greek government debt has increased since then.

    Why do you think otherwise to the authors of that report?
    Jan 26 06:04 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Swift: The Real Reason To Buy [View article]
    Yeah, because what the world needs, is more apps.
    Jul 8 01:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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