john1940

The Oil Casino: SEC Heading for Monte Carlo, Part I

Great. Who do we trust now? Certainly not anything coming through vested interests, regulators, big business, and politicians. Why did I learn this so late in life?

Readers Pick the Top 20 5-Year Horizon Stocks

I'm not impressed. The list feels more like a popularity result than carefully considered financial analysis. They are all US companies (was that a requirement?) although I admit they have good international positions. For the next five years, I would have picked a more international group with China, Brazil, and commodity based companies. Anything depending on the US consumer is suspect in my opinion. My best? Hongkong and Shanghai Hotels. It's the owner of the Peninsula hotels. 45 (that's it's HK exchange symbol) is expanding in Asia and is best in class. Disclose? I own 45 but not enough yet.

Pondering Cramer's Call to Issue More U.S. Debt

Ridiculous is the right description for this idea. An offering of that size for 30 year bonds couldn't be sold at an affordable interest rate. Worse yet, even with the bond proceeds and assuming it would create some breathing room on the US Treasury's maturities, there is still an enormous looming problem. In ten years, at the current rate of borrowing and future cash flows with current and proposed programs, the US will have to borrow money to pay interest. That will be the end of borrowing by the US Treasury. I can't wait.

Want to Own Silver? Forget About SLV

Is gold the same? I've used CEF because I thought they held bullion in the same amount as their stock issued. Now I wonder about GLD. Have to do more work.

Buying Apple Today: Like Buying Microsoft in 1998?

One thing Apple has to deal with is pricing power erosion. Computers are dropping in price (including Apple). The iPhone is overpriced and should come down soon. The iPods have already eaten their own tail in pricing or substitute Apple products. To offset this revenue decline takes incredible new products at premium prices (because that's what they're replacing). I think there's risk out there for Apple and at current prices, it's time to lower your risk to this company by selling or hedging some of your position. That's conservative investment advice, not AAPL advice.

A Comcast-Time Warner Cable Merger Would Be Justified

BS!!!!!! Picture Insanity. You've lost your way. The object of all business is to provide a product or service efficiently. Your case is one for creating a monopoly and merger fee for some investment bankers.

I have had experience with Time Warner, Comcast, and ATT. They represent the poster child and case for what's wrong with regulated monopolies. Their service and offerings are the poorest of any I experience. I've found that to get repair, an attempt to terminate your service and simultaneously request new service is sometimes successful. This response coincidentally is the first email I have sent in four days because of the third outage in one month with beloved ATT. By the way, I use ATT because I had Comcast/Time Warner and they were worse. So here comes more nonsense on the consumer so some bankers can get a merger fee.

Picture this. Open up communications to a free market and let anyone who wants to take the risk compete with these antiques. They'll be gone in sixty seconds with wireless distribution over existing towers or some other technology.

Upholding the Sanctity of Contracts: Is Gazprom Listening?

These kabuki dances are popular with the Russian people because it helps them feel good and remember when Russia was a superpower.

Ignore Apple Naysayers: Look at Its Earnings

Apple is a great company and is executing well. It's still difficult to envision significant growth at these levels -- especially with a p-e of 30, prices falling on computers, and new competitive smartphones on the way. Could be done, but difficult.

Wall Street Securitizing Life Insurance Policies. Seriously.

Not as bad as it sounds. Prior posts are correct that this purchase of life insurance policies began with the aids epidemic and filled a real need for people who were dying and running out of money. Recently it has been more "financialized" and Wall Street is packaging it for investors. Wall Street does that all the time so it should not surprising here.

The major question I have is how is there enough vigorish (a bookie term) available so that a Wall Street firm can do what the insurance company won't? The answer has to be that insurance is overpriced and not in a competitive market. I had an insurance salesman try to sell me a policy so that we could sell it to a fund two years later and make a substantial profit (before tax). It sounded like a get rich quick scheme and I avoided it. Like most insurance products, the seller knows the risks better than the buyer.

The Case for Shorting Apple

Apple certainly is priced high but it deserves a good part of that lofty height based on it's products and financial performance. I think Apple's stock is overvalued also, but you don't short the best of breed without substantial risk. Hunt for an overvalued company that has some obvious weaknesses that the market hasn't dialed in. Then buy a put.

Mutually Exclusive Inflation

You need a flame but not for the reason you think. FutureGen was a govt project. They always grow bigger than original estimates. Wait till you see future healthcare. Put this post on your wall because you saw it here first. Healthcare will double in cost within five years after legislation authorizes a universal coverage govt plan. FutureGen will only be rounding error in govt waste.

A Socratic Dialogue: Fearing the Collapse of U.S. Treasury Bond Prices

Any article this long and boring must be flawed. US initial problems were liquidity in the financial markets, bank asset deterioration, and fear of depression. Nothing here included these specific problems except opine on what governments are doing and what works or not. Academics and philosophers can debate this all they want. The rest of us need a solution. And I don't see it anywhere yet. Why was this such a great post on SA?

Caterpillar: The Strong Will Get Stronger

An excellent post. Few people recognize the change in manufacturing that has occurred among well managed companies. Inventory reduction is a major component and has been accomplished by new technologies and not accounting changes. It takes a large capital investment but can keep a company in a competitive position. Contrast with the auto companies; they tried and knew what to do, but were stonewalled by the unions.

Washington Drinking the Kool-Aid of Incompetent Economists

I may have missed it, but nothing in this article or comments mentions the impact of US unions. The unions have crippled the auto and many other industries and are at the core of the near bankrupt status of the states, cities, school systems. I can't see a US solution of any kind without taking on the unions.

Palm vs. Apple vs. RIM: The Mobile OS Wars Heat Up

Pretty good summary. Competition will help this whole category of product. Next should be the carriers and contracts. The US is behind the rest of the world on carrier speed and functions. I am surprised none of the reviewers mention that the current application developers now have a new market. Properly executed, Pre should be able to attract the games and a lot of other applications in a short period of time.