john1940

6 Comments

    • Apple Returns to a Tempting Price [view article]
      I still am not comfortable with Apple. The computer market is having difficulty due to turmoil in the economy and this affects all manufacturers. The Iphone, Itunes, and Ipod products growth rate is slowing. Revenue growth is going to be difficult for Apple and I predict a stalled stock price at current levels for six to nine months or longer. Sep 25 10:10 AM
    • Will Standardizing the Derivatives Industry Help? [view article]
      Need more specifics on what standardized derivatives means. What's wrong with commodity futures? Aren't they standardized? They work well. Jul 23 10:24 AM
    • General Discussion on BKCC
      I've been buying and bleeding. It's not your typical financial company. They specialize in middle market loans and the leverage to their balance sheet is limited. All of their loans and evaluation is in their last quarterly report. How stale can it be? Both Blackrock and Kelso are experienced financial companies. I'm hoping that the financial meltdown has created a buying opportunity here but can't claim that I'm enjoying it. I wish the company would make some statement, start buying stock (their easiest best investment), or supply some information that would make me either laugh or cry but give finality to this position. Jul 09 05:25 PM
    • How To Solve the Housing Crisis Tomorrow [view article]
      I'm glad the prior posts took care of this idea. I had to read the plan three times to see if I was reading it correctly. I was. It's ridiculous and won't even get to first base. Do not send this to Washington. They may turn it into law immediately. Apr 16 11:38 AM
    • Goldman: Better Risk Process or Just Better Outcome? [view article]
      Well, that's not my definition of risk management. You can't isolate individual wins or losses and claim great risk control or lack thereof. Risk management refers to how you contain your overall risks so that an adverse event won't materially affect performance overall or over time. Materially means little chance of loss for different investing objectives. It would be different between long bond funds and leveraged commodity investing. Apr 16 04:00 AM
    • Dollar Decline: The Phantom Menace [view article]
      When in doubt forget all the academic theories and collect real data. Any plot I've seen of the dollar vs gold/yen/Euro/CAD/ etc over a long period (50 years) shows a long period of dollar decline. The financial currency of a country only gives the holder the right to buy something in the issuing country. As long as the holder is happy and he can hand the currency to another happy holder, the currency can stay stable. As soon as worries come up, the currency declines and inflation begins. I don't think you need to do too much theoretical and book research. There is a long history of governments issuing too much currency and eventually the result is the same -- inflation, defaults, economic crisis. The only question: is it now the United State's turn? The middle eastern kingdoms, China, and others who hold a lot of dollars are now starting to diversify out of the dollar. Is this it? Don't know but I am hedging. I've never seen the US in such bad financial and political condition and with an aging population there is no economic driver to bail us out. Strangely, the populations of China, Japan, Russia, and European countries are in worse shape than US and that contributes to their upcoming economic problems. Mexican immigration won't help but highly educated immigrants from China, India, Eastern Europe can help. Forget that debt vs GDP BS. Debt is serviced by balance sheets and not gross size. The US balance sheet is broke if you include present value of currently committed future liabilities. Sep 27 10:07 PM
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