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RonFay

RonFay
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  • It's Bubble Time: A Study Of Peak PE For The S&P 500 [View article]
    James,
    Thanks for the article.
    So if they stopped ZIRP and QE, how would your analysis hold up?
    This would put the economy more on a level playing field with historical data.
    How would the credit markets hold up without the Fed buying all the MBS?
    How do you think company earnings would hold up without cheap money?
    Thanks again.
    Apr 12 07:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Outlook For Rest Of 2014: Acceleration [View article]
    Thank you for your considerate reply.
    Apr 6 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Outlook For Rest Of 2014: Acceleration [View article]
    Thanks for the article, James.

    In the last 6 years, market increases can largely be attributed to the Feds printing. QE has resulted in several overbought stock market bubbles with its liquidity.

    If growth starts to accelerate, the Feds will be forced follow through with the taper and look to raise interest rates sooner than later (your estimates exceed the Feds).

    How will the Feds forced reaction figure into your estimate of 3.7% GDP growth for the second half?

    (I can see the growth coming in commodities and energy - largely due to increasing prices. Tech - not so much.)

    Also, I disagree with the autarkic comment. US is very dependent on cheap goods from China, Indonesia, etc.

    And lastly, consumer balance sheets are getting better as a result of aging demographics and an overvalued stock market. I wouldn't expect people closing in on retirement to start cashing out their investments and buying ipads.

    Thanks again.
    Apr 5 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Detailed Case To Short The S&P 500: This Time Isn't Different [View article]
    I appreciate the author sharing his position, whether i agree with it or not.

    Those of you with contrary comments should post your own articles.

    Those of you "not reading beyond..." should consider reserving comment only after reading the whole piece. Discrediting an article based on a data point...really - is that how you make stock decisions?

    Thanks...and yes, God Bless.
    Mar 24 05:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Stock Market Crash Is Imminent [View article]
    Thanks for your insights. Nice to read something from someone other than a momentum trader.
    This market has ignored many signs and it may ignore this one.
    Mar 17 05:44 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Yellen Takes The Stage [View article]
    The "Good" is not very good.
    Earnings growth: Yesterday's news.
    Retail Sales: As you pointed out, had several downward revisions. 1.5% YoY is the new "good" perhaps.
    More millionaires...increasing the great divide. I guess they would see this as good.
    Jobless claims. I like your qualifier of "noisy".
    JOLTS: Also yesterday's news, but the data remains basically unchanged from December to January. December Jobs openings were revised down.
    Mar 16 07:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Time It Is Different - Americans Are More Pessimistic [View article]
    I agree with the author's conclusion if the Fed turns the printing press back on.

    I disagree if the taper continues.

    One only needs to map QE to the S&P to find out what is happening in the markets.
    Mar 8 05:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon - Buy Into Earnings [View article]
    Years ago I learned never to bet against Amazon. Today I just had to. 1400 P/E - that's just ridiculous. For those of you that gave me a great shorting opportunity today - thank you.

    Amazon is a great company, but there is a limit.
    Jan 30 04:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Should We Aid Detroit? [View article]
    There's a natural process that needs to be allowed to happen.

    Letting Detroit go bankrupt is the best and only help that is needed. They can start with a clean slate.

    People forget that bankruptcy is a privilege - one that student debtors no longer have.
    Jul 30 05:52 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fight The Fed: Investment Strategy For The Coming 'Unwind' [View article]
    Thanks for posting some sanity in all this.

    The Fed will print because there is no other choice. They set the 6.5% unemployment target because it is not possible in global re-balancing.

    Make your investment choices based on that.
    Mar 29 05:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke's Kryptonite [View article]
    Whoever bought into the QE3 = High Gasoline prices early on made a bunch of money. Check out UGA since QE3 started.

    The argument that makes me money is the right one.
    Feb 17 06:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke's Kryptonite [View article]
    So you deny the increase in prices at the pump?
    Feb 17 06:33 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke's Kryptonite [View article]
    Like it or not, the depression is on its way.
    The sooner, the shallower.
    Feb 17 06:32 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Congress Could Fix Its Budget Woes, Permanently [View article]
    Last I knew the Fed was the largest buyer of government debt.

    So how isn't what Ellen is proposing already happening? The Fed is essentially printing the money and handing it over to the government.

    What am i missing? Is it the way they are spending it that's coming into question?
    Feb 13 05:59 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Hyperinflation Is A Myth (And What It Means For Gold Prices) [View article]
    So as the central bank finds its policies to be less and less effective, it will not be able to stop, slow down, or even maintain its printing. The only solution will be more and more printing.

    That's the road we're heading down. No hyperinflation yet, but definitely in the cards. Just watch the price of oil when the next market correction happens. I bet it won't budge.
    Feb 12 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
21 Comments
62 Likes