Hedged In

The Penny-Pincher's All-ETF Portfolio

This is a useful article -- well written, good data, interesting thesis. Thank you, Murray -- it's appreciated.

The issue for investors is whether the indexing matra -- low costs, asset allocation, don't try to time the market -- works. Not in the sense that you'd do better picking individual stocks or expensive mutual funds, but in the sense that you might have done a lot better staying out of the market.

For that reason, an investor needs to combine a low cost portfolio with rigorous work on asset class pricing or some other approach to market timing. I'm not sure your assertion that some asset classes are "bargains" is convincing -- your expertise (which I admire) is clearly in index fund selection more than asset class pricing.

More rigorous work on asset class pricing would give investors an indicator of when to enter the market with this sort of portfolio.

Bond Market Expecting Outright Depression

Excellent data here on relative bond yields. Steinhilber is a must-read.