Hedged In

Winners and Losers from Oil Contango

Felix, in addition to the contango problem, USO was getting creamed by front-running: seekingalpha.com/user/...

Peak Oil: The Next 5 Years

Jim,

I'm now evaluating the investment case for oil via an ETF (USL), and was wondering what your thoughts on this article are a year later? Was it just demand that turned out to be lower than predicted, or was supply also unexpectedly high?

Which parts of the analysis here were correct and are still valid going forward, and which parts would you revise?

Oil's Slide: A Result of Capitulation Selling?

Good article, clearly illustrating that the recent oil price is determined not only by actual supply and demand, but is either heavily sentiment driven, impacted by commodities speculation, or both.

The 2 year chart for oil makes interesting viewing: finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...= . Perhaps oil is overshooting on the downside, just as it overshot on the upside.

One additional factor to take into account: Obama's team has stated that a chunk of the fiscal stimulus will be used to cut energy consumption, specifically consumption of heating oil (see seekingalpha.com/user/...). That will exacerbate the impact of the recession on the price of oil.

Three Ways to Lock in Low Gas Prices

Here's a longer list of oil and gas ETFs (taken from seekingalpha.com/artic...):

Claymore MACROshares Oil Up Tradeable ETF (UCR)
E-TRACS UBS Bloomberg CMCI Energy Index ETN (UBN)
iPath DJ-AIG Energy Total Return Sub-Index (JJE)
iPath DJ-AIG Natural Gas Total Return Sub-Index (GAZ)
iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETN (OIL)
PowerShares DB Energy Fund ETF (DBE)
PowerShares DB Oil Fund ETF (DBO)
PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long ETN (OLO)
PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long ETN (DXO)
PowerShares DB Crude Oil ETN (SZO)
PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN (DTO)
United States Gasoline Fund, LP ETF (UGA)
United States Heating Oil Fund, LP ETF (UHN)
United States Oil Fund, LP ETF (USO)
United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP ETF (USL)
United States Natural Gas Fund, LP ETF (UNG)

Where Will Oil Go from Here? Goldman Says $45, Iran Says $100

I'm not sure who has more credibility right now -- Goldman Sachs or Iran.
:-)

Mexico's Hedge Signals Bottom of Oil Price Drop

Very perceptive and contrarian -- I'm now going to track Tim Plaehn in my watchlist.

OPEC: The Saudis Have Left the Building

V. thought provoking article -- thanks.

In other words: It's in their long term interests to collectively hold prices high by restricting demand, but there's always a short term interest for one country to break the agreement.

Has anyone mapped this out in game theory?