Seeking Alpha

mhanley

mhanley
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View mhanley's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • McDonald's: What To Do About A Stagnating Long Position [View article]
    What is not to like about this stock? Your income should have increased 8.6% (3.6% reinvested dividends and 5% dividend growth) in what would arguably be considered a BAD year. And this with a stock that has an EXTREMELY low beta in an sector not known for low betas (consumer discretionary) and where DG investors sometimes have difficulty finding good safe diversification candidates to include in their portfolio.

    Now is the time to be ADDING to your position, not selling.
    Sep 21, 2014. 09:28 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boom for fracking sand suppliers means gold for investors [View news story]
    Thanks to Todd Johnson and his SA article in June 2013, I am sitting on a bunch of shares bought at an average cost of $18.28 and loving life. Yield on original investment now is 25.6%!
    Aug 29, 2014. 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Evaluating GlaxoSmithKline's Dividend [View article]
    Interesting. You rate GSK dividend growth prospects as "Good" with your estimated dividend compound annual growth rate of 4% over the next 4 years (on a stock with a 4.71% yield). A couple of days ago, you rated APU dividend growth prospects as "Very Poor" with your comparable estimated dividend compound annual growth rate of 3.75% over the same period (on a stock with a much higher 7.7% yield). Hmmm...
    Jul 10, 2014. 08:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting The Returns Without The Risk [View article]
    PendragonY: you can't really use funds since they don't have any maturity per se. I would suggest you take a look at Guggenheim Bulletshares ETFs.
    Jul 8, 2014. 09:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Declining Propane Demand Will Eventually Threaten AmeriGas' Dividend [View article]
    Altria/PM has been facing declining demand for decades. ATT has also faced declining demand for its traditional wired product for decades as well. Sometimes, cash cows in declining industries are the best for Dividend strategies. Also, you make no account for any changes in the industry (eg. Growing the export business). Tobacco companies have been moving to e-cigarettes, ATT to wireless. Finally, you need to consider the wide moat available to APU: many of their customers a rural, where access to Natural Gas is not an option. Also, since APU owns the underground tanks, switching costs are high.

    Finally, how can you rate 4-5% annual dividend growth on a stock with an 8% yield as "very poor"? Preposterous.
    Jul 6, 2014. 08:25 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fast-food chains react to minimum wage increase in California [View news story]
    Sorry Redhat63, I meant to address that to Chazu.
    Jul 1, 2014. 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fast-food chains react to minimum wage increase in California [View news story]
    Albright, you are perfectly within your right to "gladly pay". Where you are NOT perfectly within your right is in your expectation (as a socialist) that you have the right to force me to gladly agree with you by paying extra.
    Jul 1, 2014. 06:01 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fast-food chains react to minimum wage increase in California [View news story]
    No Redhat63, the government doesn't tax you at a higher rate. You pay the exact same rates he does on capital gains and on ordinary income (actually, you probably pay a smaller percentage on both than he does). Get your facts straight.
    Jul 1, 2014. 05:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Pain Ahead For Target Investors [View article]
    "Target is still a valuable (and well-loved) brand that is facing several operational challenges." That is EXACTLY the time to buy good companies.

    The way I look at it, based on consensus analysts opinion current year EPS AND 3-5 year EPS growth estimates of $3.69 and 11.94%, current ROE of 11.66%, and Dividend yield of 3.57%, I see a projected return of 11.79% annually. Even if the growth figures are overestimated by as much as 824 basis points (ie growth is only 3.7% per year), I still see a projected 8% annual return.

    What is not to like about those returns on a stock with a beta of only .89?
    Jun 20, 2014. 11:08 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Premarket Gainers / Losers [View news story]
    EMES getting killed today. Good buying opportunity. What people are not realizing is that there is NO DILUTION going on here. Shares before offering = shares after offering. The only thing happening is that there is a short term increase in shares being offered for sale in the secondary market.
    Jun 20, 2014. 10:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Get $1,000 Annual Dividends From Royal Dutch Shell In 2024 [View article]
    Fhbecker, dividends on both A and B shares are exactly the same. The difference in yield is not due to the amount of the dividend but to the price of the stock. A shares are cheaper than B shares in the market basically because they are taxed. Also you have it backwards, A shares have a higher yield than B shares because they have a lower price.
    Jun 14, 2014. 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Get $1,000 Annual Dividends From Royal Dutch Shell In 2024 [View article]
    Sonia, yes you pay no tax on the B shares dividends, but when you instruct your broker to reinvest, they are reinvested in A shares. That is probably why you have both in your account. Further dividends on these reinvested dividends are then assessed a 15% tax. That is a very heavy cost on a strategy that relies primarily on compounding of dividend reinvestment and a growth of only 6%.
    Jun 14, 2014. 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Get $1,000 Annual Dividends From Royal Dutch Shell In 2024 [View article]
    Unfortunately, you can't reinvest dividends in RDS.B. Any dividend you get from RDS.B shares that you instruct to be reinvested will be reinvested in RDS.A shares. Problem is, the Dutch government withholds 15% tax on RDS.A shares. Since you whole thesis is based on dividend growth and compounding of the reinvested dividends this is a fatal flaw. You would have to reduce your purchases in the model by 15% each quarter unless you take the foreign tax "recovery" you get each April at tax time from the US government and reinvest that, which in that case would incur a large trade commission as a percent of purchase (on such a small purchase), which may even be larger than the 15%. If you hold RDS.B in a tax advantaged account, you could not even do that because you couldn't recover the foreign tax at all.
    Jun 14, 2014. 08:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Target Corporation - Dividend Fact Sheet [View article]
    I am long target. However, I think an 8 to 10% would be a more appropriate discount rate to use in the valuation analysis. What would those rate imply as a fair value in you model?
    Jun 14, 2014. 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Make Of That 5% McDonald's Dividend Hike [View article]
    Don't think so. Even if he is, which I don't see from his text, ignore it for a moment and just consider what the math shows: If MCD EPS grows at "only" 5% per year, then the cost to fund that growth per share would be: $.815 (EPSx(growth rate/ROE)=5.76x(5%/35.... If you subtract the cost of growth and the dividend payment from EPS you get $1.705 (5.76-.815-3.24) left over after providing for growth and paying the dividend that you can do other stuff with. Historically, companies have used that leftover for acquisitions (wasteful in my opinion) and/or share buy backs. $1.705 is enough to retire about 1.7% of the shares each year (1.705/102.45) at today's price, more if they do it on pullbacks. So even in this worse case scenario, you get a projected return of .05 EPS growth +.017 share repurchase + .0316 dividend yield = 9.9%. Nearly 10% worse case annual return with a third of it in the bag in the form of a dividend. And this is on a stock with a beta of only .27. I'll take that risk/return profile all day long.
    Jun 5, 2014. 08:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
43 Comments
100 Likes