mark mchugh

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    • Fri Oct 3rd 11:50 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The 20-Month Gold Puzzle
      Louis,

      Here's the 2006 report:
      web.archive.org/web/20.../

      and 2005:
      web.archive.org/web/20...

      and 2004:
      web.archive.org/web/20...

      Long live the Wayback Machine!!!!
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 2nd 16:18 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold Bulls: Beware
      recentgldfan,

      This article was actually written on Monday (and yes, I'm a little irritated that it took this long to publish). So, I'd have seemed smarter on Tuesday.

      The Ouija board tells me that $830 is a low-risk entry price right enow. I did not expect that target to be hit so quickly. So, I would expect an over-shoot to the downside, before the next advance.

      The Ouija board expects to see the low after the tenth of the month. So, I'd wait and see for now, which means no new money (not sell), unless, prices go below $775 (which I see as unlikely).

      The omen that I'm looking for is, what will appear to be, a convincing bounce in stocks. Hope this helps.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 2nd 13:27 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The 20-Month Gold Puzzle
      Thanks Louis, for asking on of the great unanswered questions. Is anyone expecting an answer anytime soon?

      GMiki - always love your comments.
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 27th 10:29 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      WaMu Shows, Again, Smart Money Can Be Wrong
      Insiderman,

      You probably should submit your comments as an article to SA. You're right, this does not pass the smell test (little does these days).

      Please consider seeking a bigger audience for this information. The mainstream media is running a thousand different directions right now, and that's the best time for crooks to loot.
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 23rd 09:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      An Open Letter to Congress on the $700B Paulson Bailout Plan
      Well reasoned, beautifully written.

      Thanks
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 20th 21:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A World Without Shorts
      jcollins01

      Please don't misunderstand Friday's price action. Goldman is in big trouble because their longs dumping them (the short interest on GS is small). The prices mysteriously popped (read that manipulated) overnight and in Goldman's case, still drifted lower all day. That can only be longs liquidating.

      There is no such thing as a "perfectly fine" investment bank right now. The world's financial system damn near collapsed last week, and it had nothing to do with the shorts.

      I kid you not when I say this may be the smartest time to panic.
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 19th 13:27 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      There's Only So Much That Goldman Can Do
      Jase,

      Looks like you're gonna win. The thing you should be happiest about, is that it won't be your tax dollars that will pay for this astonishing rally.

      You won't here me complaining as an investor, it's all in the game (including government intervention). As a taxpayer, however, I'm looking for a revolution to join.

      good luck to all.
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 19th 09:53 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Bull Market in Credit Default Swaps
      Shorted TLT at the open today, should have done it yesterday.
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 18th 12:03 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Bull Market in Credit Default Swaps
      I can't ever recall seeing bigger price spreads on puts than there are on LQD right now.

      I have no doubt that you are right about TLT as well. But, it seems like this "flight to quality" craziness might have some legs yet. I bring this up because I have managed to lose money being 100% right before. I've got a bad feeling I'm gonna manage to screw this one up too.

      Thanks for alerting us to data that almost everyone else ignores.
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 18th 11:21 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      There's Only So Much That Goldman Can Do
      Jase,

      I think you've got a very good grasp of the situation. My own survival instincts tell me not to bet against Goldman (and no, I wouldn't do it now either).

      Perhaps, what people outside the US don't understand (thanks to our ever-cheerful media) is that, realistically, the bottom of the housing market is nowhere in sight. More and more loans are gonna go bust.

      I'm sorry I can't find a link for you right now, but I am sure that I've read that Goldman is exposed to huge amounts of counterparty risk. So, when things turn ugly, it doesn't matter if you made the bad purchase, or loaned the money for it.

      I wish you luck with your decision, and I admire your conviction, but I really think we are just kidding ourselves as to how much systemic risk there is right now. Just keep your wits about you (we've already got enough poor people).

      As for the pint - you're on.
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 18th 09:22 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      There's Only So Much That Goldman Can Do
      Jase,

      C'mon. People who bet against Goldman are already rich YTD. They are the thieves who have run out of victims, even with their boy running the treasury (and that's a hint for you). The shareholders are next.

      And in case you've been living in a cave this last year, book value don't mean sh*t.

      Hopefully, they put themselves on their conviction sell list.
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 17th 14:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Deflation Takes the Reins
      I agree with iThinkbig, well-written. I also agree that you need flexibility in your approach. But there are times, infrequent as they may be, that you should cling to your thesis. These strong-dollar fundamental guys are psychotics.
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 15th 13:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Paragraph That Changed the World: Will Treasuries Crash?
      If you have any doubts, check Mike's track record. He's pretty much the sharpest pencil in the box. His article "Time to Short Both Long-Term Bonds and Crude" was brilliantly timed, and his logic amazing. I regret not following his advice.

      Just tell us when to put the trade on, Mike.
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 13th 13:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Stagflation or Deflation?
      jt,

      You can't just casually drop a bombshell like that, "just as an aside." I haven't heard that Rothschild - Central bank connection before. Could you elaborate a little?

      Good article James, I think what you've underplayed is that the root causes, both in the 1920's and now, were credit bubbles. Clearly, the credit bubble popped in 1929, and triggered the depression. But today, it would certainly seem to me that the credit bubble is still expanding as bad housing loans morph into US Treasuries (being issued at an unprecedented clip).

      What's terrifying to me is that the root cause has yet to be identified by most, let alone dealt with
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 8th 23:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Metals Manipulation - Or Simply Deleveraging?
      Bob,

      Truly enjoyable read. I happen to believe that what has happened in metals lately, is a combination of both manipulation and de-leveraging. But like green socks (really?) and no tigers, it doesn't matter.

      What concerns me most is that a lot of us are having great difficulty buying at these bargain prices. I've got to say, I now consider buying the precious metals ETF's a mistake. The haircut that I'd have to take
      to unwind these positions and buy actual bullion would be painful to say the least. I share your spider-sense that something big is about to happen.

      So what's the move? Buy, ETF's, options, futures, physical or all of the above?
      View article »
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