David44

Navigating These Inefficient Markets

If over the last 81 years, or approximately 20,500 business days, a "1 in a 100" event happened 43 times, that seems like statistically very litttle. And a "three sigma" event that should have only happened 27 times (according to the article) would be about 1 in 760, so why would a "four sigma" event move be a "1 in 100"? Could someone explain? Thank you

Palin, On the Ongoing Financial Crisis

The sad part is that Obama, Biden and McCain all basically agreed with her statement. We better hope for divided government....

The Market's Back-to-Back Streak

Please post the answer and calculation method when you have a chance. Thank you. David

Eight Notes on Insurance, Economics, and Value Investing

I would be interested in what insurance to buy. Thanks for the always interesting posts!

Intermediate-Term Market Outlook Shifts To Bullish

I would definitely be interested in more details about the basis for the model.

Through the Looking Glass: Alice in Liquidity Land

I enjoyed the article, but would like to suggest another meaning for "awash with liquidity". I think it might refer to the huge amount of dollars looking to be invested from Asia (trade surpluses) and the OPEC countries (oil revenues). Whether this constitutes the potential for a bubble, I am not sure. I consider it more of a growth in the US$ as the preferred currency for savings storage. If that changes, we might look back on it as a bubble. However, it is by no means clear to me that it needs to change anytime soon (i.e. in the next few years).

The Current Bull Market: Stocks Up Significantly Less During Earnings Season

First, we should annualize based on how much of the time are we in "earnings season" versus outside "earnings season". Second, in a bull market earnings have been strong. Its possible that investors have been buying the rumor of strong earnings and selling the news of it. Third, I wonder what a larger sample would show....

Questioning Questioning the Bull

It is usually better for bull markets when a "wall of worry" exists. That tells me the market can still run a little further. Also, a big difference between this inverted yield curve, and the one in 2000, is that today's is driven by global US$$ liquidity, (i.e. China/Japan/India trade surplus, Mid-East oil revenues), pushing long rates down. Those same "technical" liquidity factors could be pushing stocks higher.

David
Tenafly, NJ