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  • Navigating These Inefficient Markets [View article]
    If over the last 81 years, or approximately 20,500 business days, a "1 in a 100" event happened 43 times, that seems like statistically very litttle. And a "three sigma" event that should have only happened 27 times (according to the article) would be about 1 in 760, so why would a "four sigma" event move be a "1 in 100"? Could someone explain? Thank you
    Apr 07 08:29 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment
  • Palin, On the Ongoing Financial Crisis [View article]
    The sad part is that Obama, Biden and McCain all basically agreed with her statement. We better hope for divided government....
    Sep 09 14:49 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • The Market's Back-to-Back Streak  [View article]
    Please post the answer and calculation method when you have a chance. Thank you. David
    Nov 27 19:55 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Eight Notes on Insurance, Economics, and Value Investing [View article]
    I would be interested in what insurance to buy. Thanks for the always interesting posts!
    Oct 23 10:30 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Intermediate-Term Market Outlook Shifts To Bullish [View article]
    I would definitely be interested in more details about the basis for the model.
    Jul 24 19:01 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Through the Looking Glass: Alice in Liquidity Land [View article]
    I enjoyed the article, but would like to suggest another meaning for "awash with liquidity". I think it might refer to the huge amount of dollars looking to be invested from Asia (trade surpluses) and the OPEC countries (oil revenues). Whether this constitutes the potential for a bubble, I am not sure. I consider it more of a growth in the US$ as the preferred currency for savings storage. If that changes, we might look back on it as a bubble. However, it is by no means clear to me that it needs to change anytime soon (i.e. in the next few years).
    Jul 20 18:21 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • The Current Bull Market: Stocks Up Significantly Less During Earnings Season [View article]
    First, we should annualize based on how much of the time are we in "earnings season" versus outside "earnings season". Second, in a bull market earnings have been strong. Its possible that investors have been buying the rumor of strong earnings and selling the news of it. Third, I wonder what a larger sample would show....
    Oct 09 16:29 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Questioning Questioning the Bull [View article]
    It is usually better for bull markets when a "wall of worry" exists. That tells me the market can still run a little further. Also, a big difference between this inverted yield curve, and the one in 2000, is that today's is driven by global US$$ liquidity, (i.e. China/Japan/India trade surplus, Mid-East oil revenues), pushing long rates down. Those same "technical" liquidity factors could be pushing stocks higher.

    David
    Tenafly, NJ
    Oct 01 11:31 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
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