Chad Gray_

The ETF Resource Page

Great list. One thing that I'm searching for is a source of data on daily (or weekly or monthly) changes in shares outstanding - especially for sector ETFs. It seems that there would be lots to learn based on where the money flows are headed

Synaptics Diversifies Product Range and Rides the Smart Phone Wave

Don't forget the netbook trend. If unit volumes in this new form factor take off as many trend-watchers are prognosticating, SYNA may see revitalized PC segment growth along with their handheld design wins.

Synaptics: Staying Ahead of Expectations

SYNA continues to execute - and you're dead on about the leadership position they've established in a very interesting niche. One growth driver you didn't mention explicitly is the netbook trend (especially with the forthcoming Win7 including significant support for touch screen inputs). Lastly, don't forget the *massive* short position that's still on (which continues to be a mystery to me). Still in the 40% + of shares outstanding, and I've never heard a single reasonable justification for it.

(long SYNA)

Credit Card Crunch: Creating a New Generation of Subprime

Thorough write-up, but I agree with Dussault Capital's comment above about the "en masse" drop in FICO scores. Very possible that Fair Isaac adjusts the magic formula and the curve will shift. This isn't unlike the administrators of the SAT tests who, in the mid 90's, decided to grade the test on a curve to prevent scores from continuing to decline - problem solved.

The other equally likely scenario is that the FICO scores do drop in aggregate causing credit card companies to lower their cutoff. They've got X billions of dollars that they'd like to lend to keep up with their growth targets etc... Much like a university who has X thousands of seats to fill and the bar gets drawn accordingly.

Of course this is all an inconsequential argument. At the end of the day, those who had been buying credit ABS's are going to be much more selective, and CDS insurance will be much harder to come by. That will dry up the source of funds available to lend and the overall lending pie will shrink.

The Hidden Cost in Inverse ETFs

cma cma, you're correct - that was a type-o. I meant short SH and short IVV

The Deflation Scam

Well written analysis. The Chronicle article, however, was a little disingenuous. The "cost" of $7.1T includes a whole lot of loans that will get paid back (commercial paper or loan guarantees to GE, for instance). There are two kinds of spending: the kind that goes into your own economy (stimulus checks, infrastructure projects, and to some extent, loans to viable domestic companies) and there's money that vanishes (the million dollar tanks you build or the dollars you send overseas for foreign oil). Sort of like the difference in opening your bedroom door in the winter vs. opening your front door. In both cases it feels like heat is escaping, but only one of the cases is it lost for good.

I too am concerned that we're setting a course for strong inflation, which is exactly what Bernanke wants IMHO. Inflation bails out the borrower and screws the lender, but in an invisible way. My only hope is that we focus as much of the inflationary stimulus on things that have the most residual value to the economy (bridges & roads, R&D, broadband infrastructure), limited amounts on things like $1000 checks to consumers and similar, and as little as possible on foreign oil and bombs.

What Caused Berkshire's Freefall - And How Investors Can Benefit

Nicely presented analysis. Makes me regret selling half my BRK shares the other week mid-swoon... Buy the vultures, not the meat.

Housing Price Corrections in the Bay Area

Good comments. As for the San Jose and silicon valley corridor question, you're right that it's important, but I think you'd agree that there are a great deal of people who live in the south bay who drive north, but just as many that live north (SF, San Mateo, Palo Alto, etc...) and commute south. Too bidirectional to determine which is the "outer" location and which is "Inner".

It would be interesting if anyone ran the same comparison for Phoenix. I'd gladly send the same spreadsheet if that saved you time.

Housing Price Corrections in the Bay Area

Thanks for the good comments. John, read your article as well, spot on. As for the San Jose & Santa Clara effect, I excluded them because as you go south from SF (the corridor between SF and San Jose) it's hard to say what's "outlying". Many people live in SF and commute to San Jose or Santa Clara. Others live in Santa Clara and commute to SF.

Most would agree that when you go North (Novato, Santa Rosa) or east (Stockton, Tracy, etc...) it's pretty clear which direction is "outer" and which is "inner".

If anyone knowledgeable about Phoenix was interested in running a similar analysis that would be an interesting second data point (and relatively quick to do). I'll gladly send you the spreadsheet I used if interested.

Just How Widespread is the Fallout from the Unfolding Credit Crisis?

The article is very correct that those who weren't themselves using subprime debt are seeing negative fallout from the meltdown, but don't forget that they were also benefiting greatly for the past 5 years from the upward price surges created by easy credit. It's a little like someone who saw their shares of Intel or Microsoft go down in 2001 on the backs of the dot com implosion. True, those companies weren't dot coms, but they were trading at astronomical multiples (for them) because the exhuberance had spread beyond just the .com's. Then, just as now, you didn't hear a peep from Cisco shareholders who saw their investment growing well beyond rationality, but lots of hard luck stories when valuations returned to earth.

As my grandma used to say, easy come, easy go.