Seeking Alpha

c21vintage

c21vintage
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View c21vintage's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • El Pollo Loco's Q4 Disaster Is Hidden In Plain Sight [View article]
    I believe you are seeing that weakness in price right now, wouldn't wait too long to get in as you might be looking into the proverbial gift horse's mouth right now. Gas prices spiked back up in CA during Feb/March, even as oil stayed in the 40's/bbl which took $ out of the consumers' pockets but now they can't sustain the illusion as they are running out of places to store the glut of excess crude and must move it. As those gas prices come down in S. Cal, land of the car, home to about 75% of LOCO's restaurants, you will see same store sales take off as the healthy, tasty, reasonably priced offerings of LOCO are just what diners are looking for. I'm in till 40.
    Mar 29, 2015. 08:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • El Pollo Loco's Q4 Disaster Is Hidden In Plain Sight [View article]
    I would love to see more growth in units but what's been proven is that well planned, incremental growth is more sustainable. LOCO is building from a base of only around 500 so 27 is substantial, very conservative, coupled with increases in same store sales should account for a 10-12% sales increase at a minimum, I expect 15%+ to be easily attainable. You say a "disaster in plain sight." Maybe you need to have your vision checked.
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • El Pollo Loco's Q4 Disaster Is Hidden In Plain Sight [View article]
    Absolutely hilarious article, right up until the last sentence when the author says "My intention is to short LOCO..." I guess he's waiting for it to run back up to 40. What a disaster! LOL!!!

    Not only are same store sales up, profits up, margins up and 27 new restaurants scheduled to open (about 5% of current total), but with gas prices coming down again, after the recent rip off of CA consumers, you can expect LOCO to gain traffic with the people having more disposable income available. I'll wait for LOCO to hit 40 and then consider joining this fool in shorting it, if the company stumbles that is.
    Mar 25, 2015. 04:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Wheaton Gets Streaming: Why Management Doubled Down On Solobo [View article]
    I think the answer to why Vale made this deal is because it was clearly one sided, a golden opportunity to take advantage of SLW so to speak. There is no question why Vale did this deal (their management team must have blistered each other's palms high fiving for days afterwards), the only real question is why SLW management did this when it is so obvious that they grossly overpaid given current market conditions...20 years from now, in retrospect this may seem like it was worth it but how many stockholders today will still be holding shares in 20 years? We are the owners NOW and we got screwed to the wall. Time for heads to roll.
    Mar 10, 2015. 11:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoran: Separating The Noise From The Necessity [View article]
    Might be time to begin nibbling as this could be the opportune time. Someone on CNBC discussing infrastructure in the US mentioned that parts of Thomas Edison's first power grid on the Lower East side of Manhattan is still in use. Yes, THAT Thomas Edison, from 100 years ago.
    Mar 10, 2015. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Wheaton Gets Streaming: Why Management Doubled Down On Solobo [View article]
    I have to wonder if the author has ties to management to write such a rosey missive given the facts and the resounding decision of the market since this blunder. This move may pan out in the long run but has been devastating to those of us holding the stock now and will likely take years for us to recover what we lost. Dumping 20 million shares on the market is devastating. It is hard not to believe that we overpaid given the length of time it will take to break even at today's prices and the purchase was done at today's price. Management literally bet that we will see significant price increases for gold as this makes very little sense at $1,200/oz. I've been in this stock long enough to remember it under $5/share, over $40 a share and frankly, I wonder if we're not going to see a round trip as management has, in my opinion, gotten reckless. I expected that this would be a great opportunity to grow the stream at a great price. They did not do that here, quite the opposite in fact. It is shocking that they paid as much as they did and that they couldn't find better opportunities elsewhere. Only holding about 1/3 of my former position and questioning that to be honest. Yes, this MAY prove to have been a good move in the long run but right now I have lost confidence in management and feel like they owe us a much better explanation or a resignation. Nobody invests in stocks with a 30 year horizon these days, long term investing has a much different meaning than it used to and a year is now a very long time. I've been in this stock for over 5 years but I bet that puts me in the 1% of current owners. I am shocked, saddened and really struggling to hold on.
    Mar 10, 2015. 09:53 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoran: Separating The Noise From The Necessity [View article]
    Understood it was a neg when govt forced FCX to build a smelter, but why was stock hit again when a competitor was forced to invest in that smelter, reducing capx for the project? Fuel biggest cost to mine, oil still below $50. Seems like if you haven't sold already, why sell now, even if copper stays flat? At some point US will be forced to replace 100 yr old infrastructure, Europe is now looking to stimulate economy. May not be the bottom but closer to it than a top to be sure. Not a flashy trade but long term? I'm holding about 1/2 of what I had at the peak.
    Mar 9, 2015. 06:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Wheaton Shares Decline As New Gold Stream Brings Only Limited Immediate Value [View article]
    I've had faith in mgt and been long SLW thru great times and now bad (at a reduced # of shares) but would have thought that while this should be a good time to acquire reserves, they would have gotten those assets at a great price given mkt conditions. Still holding but not happy.
    Mar 5, 2015. 07:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New York Mortgage Trust beats by $0.20 [View news story]
    Yet another beat, I believe that's 5 out of the past 6. NAV up again. Huge dividend, well covered. What's not to like?
    Feb 24, 2015. 05:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memo: General Motors' Activist Group Net Stock Sellers In 2014 And 2015 [View article]
    Author states the activist group has been a net seller during 2014 and thus far in 2015, so tax loss selling was not the motive. They have been selling into a 20% price rise this year, how much higher would the price have gone by now if they were not selling? I don't know how many shares they've sold so can't quantify the damage they've done to those of us who are long. Rarely do the shareholders gain full benefit from stock buybacks, I'd rather get paid.
    Feb 17, 2015. 09:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Memo: General Motors' Activist Group Net Stock Sellers In 2014 And 2015 [View article]
    So this activist group sells, driving down the stock price, then whines about the price going down while the company is increasingly profitable, paying a dividend and sales of their most profitable vehicles are benefitting from lower gas prices. Yeah, I give a crap about what they say. Pay a special $1 per share dividend, use the rest to develop the next generation of fuel efficient and clean vehicles and I'll be quite happy.
    Feb 15, 2015. 12:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GM Shareholders, Say No To Self-Nominated Board Member, Proposed $8 Billion Stock Acquisition [View article]
    Far better uses for the $8 billion, that belongs to CURRENT shareholders....How about a $1/share special dividend to CURRENT shareholders and investing the rest in technology that will allow GM to lead, rather than follow, the industry into the future?
    Feb 14, 2015. 12:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Gold Prices Are Pulling Back [View article]
    Central banks will buy about 2,000 tons of gold this year. Rising interest rates? Last time I checked the yield on the 10 yr it was still about 1.9%. Or you could lend your money to the Swiss or Germans and get a NEGATIVE rate of return. Many marginal mining operations have been shut in due to low grade ores, high costs of labor and up until a few months ago, high fuel costs. The Indians have cancelled their tax on imported gold and they are the world's 2nd largest gold market.

    So, with rising demand (not shrinking as the author postulates), shrinking supply, NEGATIVE interest rates and paper currencies (Yen, Looney, Euro, Rubble) all crumbling one by one in their own turn, I will gladly take the other side of the trade. What's that old saying about "buy low, sell high?" Or that one about "buy when there is blood in the streets?" Yeah, go ahead and sell your gold. I'll be waiting, along with the other smart investors, to scoop it up. THANKS!!!
    Feb 12, 2015. 10:35 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM: Investor Sentiment - The Last Piece Of The Puzzle On The Road To $40+ [View article]
    Amazed that some still focus on the bailout, both ancient history and utter nonsense. If GM and Chrysler were not bailed out, Ford would have gone down too as all common suppliers would be out of business. Over 1.5 million high pay jobs were saved. Almost all $$$ has been repaid directly and via sale of stock, the small remainder more than paid back by payroll taxes on the still employed. But stock prices are about the future, not what happened 5 years ago. All companies have had major recalls, Toyota, Honda, even Tesla. GM going to 45 is a no brainer and made easier by all the senseless haters who are short and about to be creamed. It's about PE folks, without the E you don't have a damned thing going for you. Tesla makes a great car and even sells a few of them. At a loss. $200/share? LOL!!!!
    Feb 12, 2015. 09:52 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM To Deliver Inexpensive 200-Mile EV 2 Years Ahead Of Tesla [View article]
    Still amazed at the hate directed at GM for the bailout, which is ancient history regardless of how you feel about 1.5 million high paying jobs having been saved in the US auto industry. I honestly don't give a crap about your feelings about that. This forum, I THOUGHT, was about buying/selling stock for profits.
    Tesla has a fan base of devotees that own a stock selling for $200 while making no profits and it sells ONE very beautiful luxury car in a niche market.
    GM sells a broad product line that is kicking ass across all market segments, making billions in profits with a high profit margin and it's stock sells for $36, pays a dividend, just INCREASED it's dividend and the sales of the upcoming Bolt will be roughly equivalent to it's current sales in Luxemburg.
    In 2 years it is very likely that Tesla will be selling for $35 a share and GM will be selling for $50 a share.
    The real question is which STOCK would you rather own?
    Feb 9, 2015. 02:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
122 Comments
216 Likes