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c21vintage

c21vintage
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  • Prospect Capital And The Cat And Mouse Game [View article]
    If you think selling low is a good strategy, this is a good time to sell. I sold 2/3 of my position in the mid 10s but would not think of selling the other 1/3 now. History shows that this stock will slowly climb back to that point from here as the dividend is now stable over 10% for at least a good while, which will attract investment in a 2% world. The risk of further losses is much lower than the probability of a slow melt up in price from here, it's all about risk vs. reward, which I believe is in favor of the reward at this point. If you wanted to sell, that train has already left the station.
    Dec 25, 2014. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport McMoRan: Secure 5.5% Dividend, And The Stock Will Soar On Any Commodity Rebound [View article]
    What does the TP have to do with anything? LOL! The Tea Party now controls both houses of the congress and after 6 years of constant obstruction of any program that might create a job on Obama's watch, they think they have a shot at the White House. To win a general election, instead of just local elections where their gerrymandered districts ensure victory , they have to convince the greater electorate of the American people that they really don't hate them and to prove it, they might actually vote to replace the 80 year old grid, the bridges and the schools (OK, that's a long shot, they hate public education). History shows that the year before a Presidential election is almost always the best for the economy and the market for this very reason, all the pols want to show they care about the country. You might be sympathetic to the Tea Party, that's fine, but everyone who invests should realize this is a good time in the cycle for political reasons. Commodities are in the dumps because the focus is now on China but this country was the economic engine of the world for 100 years and can be the leader again with a congress trying to actually do it's best. We've had 6 years of a wet blanket trying to smother our economy and we've had growth despite that, what will happen when the wet blanket is lifted, even if just a little? I see a much greater chance of commodities going higher than much lower from here.
    Dec 25, 2014. 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sysco: Cautious View On Business Dynamics [View article]
    We all place bets with our money and I'm not a short term trader. The price of oil will be low for at least a year, likely far longer. This company has a history of hedging and will likely lock in those low prices to prolong it. To be at this stage of the collapse of oil and think that it somehow threatens this company's profits in the coming year or more is, well, absurd. The political cycle, which you refuse to recognize as a factor, is in favor of job creation with a Presidential election in 2 years and folks with jobs seem to like going out to eat. People with higher wages are less sensitive to possible price increases at the retail level, a plus not a negative. DEflation would compress profit margins, inflation presents an opportunity to expand margins, no? The author is worried about unemployment rising when all signs point to accelerating job growth, even after 53 months of uninterrupted job growth. Do you worry about a snowstorm in July too? It WILL snow again, but not for quite a while. Whatever, place your bet, mine is sticking with this company, which has paid a small but appreciated dividend and is up over 25% since I got on board. This is no rocket but I believe it is a case of slow and steady winning the race, a stable melting up situation with less competition moving forward, glad to have it in my IRA and keeping it for at least another year as the risk of loss is not as great as the promise of further gains.
    Dec 25, 2014. 08:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport McMoRan: Secure 5.5% Dividend, And The Stock Will Soar On Any Commodity Rebound [View article]
    What if the Tea Party wants to appear to be sane and approves bills to replace the 80 year old grid that is so vulnerable to hacking? What if they pass a bill to replace the 85,000 unsafe bridges? I know, that would create millions of jobs during Obama's term but hey, he can't run again and they might not want everyone to be focused on their obstruction. Voters have short memories and they might get away with it. But it's not all about China, we had 5% GDP growth last quarter and we can once again be the economic engine. Maybe. History shows the year before an election is the best for the economy, just a fact. I'm sticking with Freeport, much more likely to see big gains from here than big losses.
    Dec 24, 2014. 08:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sysco: Cautious View On Business Dynamics [View article]
    This might clear things up for YOU....GDP just revised for 3rd quarter UP to 5%, FASTEST GROWTH in over a decade! 53 months of uninterupted private sector job growth, another record and wages are finally on the upswing as well. Coming up on Presidential election, this is usually the best year for the market and the eocnomy historically. The Tea Party, having smothered all attempts at growth for 6 years with constant obstruction of anything that might create a job on Obama's watch are going to want to appear sane and not to hate the American people. It is likely that they will pass an infrastructure bill that might deal with our 80 year old grid, so vulnerable to hacking, they might pass a bill to begin to replace the 85,000 unsafe bridges, etc. Plunging gas prices are going to stimulate not only restaurants but retail sales as well. The world has been drowning in crude for over 5 years, tankers being used as floating storage as no land based storage has been available, now it's a crises and no one has stopped pumping. This will be a cycle and in a few years they MIGHT even reach a balance but what on Earth would POSSIBLY lead you to believe "the energy sector can also be this company's demise" as that is utterly laughable in the context of reality?
    Dec 24, 2014. 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sysco: Cautious View On Business Dynamics [View article]
    Quick check of ag commodities for the past year...corn is down 8.1%, rice is down 21%, oats are down 11.3%, soy is down 21.9%, sugar is down 7.7%, wheat is down 4.7%.

    Restaurants will be one of the first market sectors to benefit from cheap gas, not just my opinion, very much a theme of how to play the collapse of oil on all investment shows/sites. Job growth has been ongoing for 53 straight months and both job growth and wage growth are accelerating. SYY has how many trucks driving how many miles every day? Seems like I can't drive very far without seeing on of their trucks on the road.

    I am always cautious but every now and then an investor has to make a judgement call to make a profit, or just put it in a CD and watch it shrink. I think SYY just might benefit from a combination of the deflation in commodities, the restaurant boom that is surely coming, the cheaper fuel for their trucks, the reduced competition from US Food takeover, the divestiture of $5 billion in assets to complete that takeover.
    Dec 23, 2014. 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sysco: Cautious View On Business Dynamics [View article]
    Inflation is going to hurt restaurant sales? No kidding! I thought we had no or very low inflation and that the rapid DEFLATION in the cost of gas would INCREASE sales at restaurants, in fact that dining out would be on of the great beneficiaries of low gas prices, making fast casual dining one of the best ways to play the collapse in the price of oil. Also, I understand that much of SYY's fuel is hedged, but at some point the lower fuel prices will directly add to the bottom line for this best of breed company. You might be right but as for me, I'll be holding on to SYY as part of my long term IRA portfolio and enjoy the dividends while doing it. I'm happy to take the other side on this.
    Dec 22, 2014. 04:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is The Gold-Oil Ratio Telling Us? [View article]
    So, we have now witnessed the Yen lose 25% of it's value in a year.
    We have now witnessed the Rubble lose most of it's value in a couple of months.
    We have now witnessed Europe sink into prolonged recession and unemployment soar to over 20% in Spain, Greece, chaos in Italy, Iceland. They will be forced to stimulate their economies by printing more euros.
    Many countries are now demanding that they "repatriate" their gold reserves from New York and London.
    And gold is in a 3 year slump...how much longer does it remain out of favor after having proven it's value for 5,000 years? Hmmm....bit coins, 2% 10 year notes or gold....gee, what a hard choice! LOL!
    Dec 21, 2014. 08:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Capitulation Moment Appears Imminent - See Bottoming Within Days Thereafter [View article]
    Random thoughts for gold. First, Putin invaded the Ukraine months ago and was bold about it, now in a matter of months, he's on his knees. Far from invading more countries, it's very likely he will be forced to withdraw his forces from the Ukraine since the difference between the US and Russia is that even though we are both broke, the US has good credit. No one is going to lend Putin a dime, money is fleeing Russia, not going to it. Has anyone noticed that many European countries have begun to "repatriate" their gold stores? This will require the depositories in both NY and London to produce the goods. Should be interesting in itself as there are thousands of tons of gold in play just here. The rubble has collapsed and Russia will become focused on gold. The Indians removed the onerous tax on gold imports. In which direction will this pressure send gold? The miners have been punished far more than the price of the metals and when prices rise, the stocks of those miners will outpace the rise in the metal. Always does.
    Dec 20, 2014. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan declares $0.3125 dividend [View news story]
    What would happen if the Tea Party congress, after 6 years of doing everything possible to obstruct economic recovery to destroy the President, grew a brain (they would have to share one, of course) and realized they had 2 years to prove they don't really hate the American people, just Obama, and passed an infrastructure bill to replace the 80 year old grid? To replace over 80,000 unsafe bridges? To build mass transit systems that aren't a century old? (OK, this is never going to happen as "urban" people would use them and we hate our cities). Why do we need to rely upon the Chinese to buy the copper when we have some much needed right here? It COULD happen if the Tea Party wants to public to vote for them in a Presidential election and they were smart. (OK, stop laughing).
    Dec 20, 2014. 09:01 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan declares $0.3125 dividend [View news story]
    Seems like a chance to buy low and get paid over 5% to wait for the metals to recover. So far we've seen the rubble and the yen collapse, with the exception of Germany, Europe is in recession and needs to stimulate economies....may not be a great day trade but long term? I don't need to hit my IRA for 5 years, I'm in.
    Dec 19, 2014. 12:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coeur Mining To Buy Paramount Gold And Silver - Was It A Good Deal? [View article]
    Gold at 1,350 not too far off today's prices, 20%, but the $22 silver is a 50% gain from here. I would love to see both those #s become reality but the fact is that they are not reality right now and right now is when the purchase is happening, isn't it?
    Dec 19, 2014. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is The Gold-Oil Ratio Telling Us? [View article]
    Still laughing as I write this...just looking at the ratios the author himself posted here, the range of the ratio being from about 6 to about 22 to 1 proves only ONE thing, THERE IS NO CORRELATION BETWEEN THE TWO!!!! It is all over the place, what we in science call a nearly perfect "scatter graph." This is one of the most specious, hilarious grasp at straws to try to find some meaning that simply is not there. Like trying to find a plausible story line in a Seth Rogan movie, don't waste your time.
    Dec 18, 2014. 09:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors May Be Bottoming [View article]
    BTW, EVERY manufacturer has had millions of recalls of late, including Toyota (memba their killer sudden acceleration?), Honda and all the rest but the media like to play up GM's recalls. My girlfriend has a 2013 Ford Fusion, brought it in for sched. maint. (oil change) and they kept the car for a week because of a recall on the computer, which the dealer's mechanic fried accidentally while resetting it, requiring whole new unit. She never received a notice of this recall, was being done quietly to avoid publicity. NICE!
    Dec 18, 2014. 08:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors May Be Bottoming [View article]
    Well Capt. My Benz has the AMG option (extra $10,000) which pumped it up to 349 hp. Go to local parts store and ask for the oil filter, nope. Have to go to MB to buy the part, over $40. I tinker on my hot rod, have nothing to do with these modern bizarro engines, don't have the computer to diagnose the constant problems the come with the Benz. I would bet a load that not 1% of people who buy a new Benz work on it themselves, this isn't 1955. Do think that I am in idiot and never tried the gas cap? That the dealer, who had 7 whacks at it, didn't either? BTW, the lemon law doesn't work as they write it up, or the "diagnosis" differently each time and you need 3 of the exact same repairs to call them on it. They are not stupid, they, like you, me and everyone else, knows about the gas cap possibly setting off the light. Hey, if you want one, pony up about $90,000 and get one, see for yourself that it is a shitpile. Meanwhile, i LOVE my 2011 Malibu, just turned 74,000 yesterday and I wonder what I replace it with in a few years. It will likely be a GM product.
    Dec 18, 2014. 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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