buyitcheaper

The Economic Week Ahead: Inflation, Growth, Confidence and Retail Numbers

Enjoying the ride down so far everyone! This has been GREAT!!!!


On Aug 17 05:15 PM User 244491 wrote:

> Short the Russell,Dow,Nasdaq,SP from Monday cover on Friday.
> I am preparing myself for ride on e-mini Dow till 11000 on Friday,maybe
> will close some of shorts done on Thursday previous week.

The Bedrock Case for the Return of the Gold Bull

Over a typical interest rate cycle, gold will retain its purchasing power and is convertible to legal tender. so that is specious. And anyone who would buy GLD or any other equity without a stop, deserves to lose their money. So again, somewhat specious.

Inflation doesn't rise 14% in amonth, it rises 0.09% a month, every month, for two or three years, and then you look back and that same suit that cost you $500, now costs you $950. That $1.29 dozen eggs costs $3.99 (CLM a recommendation there.)

Also, you will see beef inflating significantly this fall as the early culling due to grains incredible rise forced beef producers to push their product to market much earlier which will result in a scarcity of supply this fall. This will make support the higher overall inflation numbers which is ultimately why gold will start tracking back up toward the end of the year absent a SERIOUS intervention by the Fed, i..e a real interest rate increase of 1% point or more.

Does anyone have Volcker's number?

The Economic Week Ahead: Inflation, Growth, Confidence and Retail Numbers

You're spot on = SDS, DXD, SKF, SRS will yield a nice bounce.

Is the Dollar Rallying on Realigned Expectations?

It's rallying b/c long term rates are going up, significantly, that's killing gold and oil, and that's strengthening the buck. PLUS other countries are acting intelligently and raising rates themselves which perversely it seems to be strengthening the dollar as well. I think we MIGHT see oil below $100 by year end, only to see it double in the next five years or less.

Fed Rate Cuts May Have Been Counter-Productive

Inflating your way out of this mess is no good. There are trillions in leveraged positions in the CDS sector that must be unwound, or simply, written off. Some banks, a la Grantham, must fail, including an I-bank or two. Otherwise, this has the potential for a great depression style market event. The dollar will be sacrificed until a Volcker style chairman emerges, jacks up rates, strengthens the dollar with its concomitant decline in commodity and oil prices. In the meantime does anyone know where I can get a Swiss Franc denominated CD?