strutzma's Comments

Interesting action in the precious metals had them continuing overnight a sharp fall begun after FOMC minutes suggested an earlier-than-expected end to Fed candy. This reversed with the 8:30 jobs report which showed still-sluggish employment growth. Gold has since bounced $21 to $1,651, though still off 1.4% on the session. Silver jumps $0.70, but remains -2.6%.

Fri, 04 Jan 2013 10:15:53 -0500

The same FOMC that was discussing the "end" of QE2 in March of last year...of course that end was just the beginning of QE3 & QE4EVR.

Encana (ECA -5.7%) shares stumble after the EPA says in a draft report the aquifer in a Wyoming gas field operated by the company "contains compounds likely associated with gas production practices, including hydraulic fracturing." EPA says Encana has been funding the provision of alternate water supplies to the area since 2010. (earlier)

Thu, 08 Dec 2011 22:49:46 -0500

FYI: EPA is a Nixon legacy

April Job Growth Improves as Jobless Rate Ticks Up

Fri, 06 May 2011 17:46:03 -0400

Yup,
The headline today should actually have been "Miracle in D.C.: Government program creates a wave of 175,000 fully-employed births and resurrections today!"

Why It's Time to Sell Silver Stocks and Buy Bank of America

Tue, 03 May 2011 11:59:02 -0400

...maybe they should increase margin requirements in stocks to get rid of the "froth" in stocks like BAC...

Why Natural Gas Disrupts the Energy Industry

Thu, 14 Apr 2011 12:25:18 -0400

Mr. Cooper,
You've obviously never worked in the construction industry or you'd have heard the running joke about concrete...there are only two kinds of concrete, concrete that has cracked, and concrete that will.... As for running steel rebar within the concrete, yes, it provides exponential increases to the strength of concrete, but last I checked, I've not seen crews of rod-busters tying 5000' of rebar at any of my local drill rigs......I would, therefore, assume that the concrete casing is not steel-reinforced along its length.....and the risk of cracked concrete would be, again, high.

Putting a Damper on the Big March Job Report Celebration

Sun, 03 Apr 2011 09:03:46 -0400

Dean,
....you forgot to add that, of the 216k jobs that were added, 117k were added by the birth/death model...and within those 117k jobs it was noted that the construction component of these theoretical jobs grew 50% year-over-year....an "unbelievable" number when one considers, as you mentioned, that the Commerce Dept reported a slowing in construction activity.

Why Natural Gas Disrupts the Energy Industry

Wed, 19 Jan 2011 20:54:56 -0500

No mention of the price of environmental costs in regard to 'fracking'... Of course, only those in the 'fracking' locale are affected, so who else is going to care about disease or death of a few when fuel prices can be so cheap! ...reminds me of some other situation...I ...just...cant'...put.... ...finger...on.... It's not like people in the U.S. wouldn't notice if we had people dying in order to secure cheap energy sources...nor would people in the U.S. not put 2 and 3 together and decided that their defense budget was funding cheaper fuel prices. So I'm sure that there'd be an absolute uproar about any collateral/environmental damage that wasn't accounted for in the price of fueling-up their chevy or running the air conditioner at 60degrees day and night.....

So put together, the total is €750B ($966B) of shock and awe to save the eurozone - €440B in loans from the nations, €60B from EU emergency funds, and €250B from the IMF - but it better be enough, as signals from the U.K. and from German elections suggest no future help is forthcoming. Euro +1.3% against the dollar; S&P 500 futures +2.6%.

Sun, 09 May 2010 23:29:56 -0400

So a little QE from the ECB… A little QE from the FED… Let the race to the bottom begin! By next fall I could be heating my house with worthless dollars/euros!

Is Deflation About to Rear Its Head? Part 1

Sat, 27 Feb 2010 00:24:56 -0500

"Historically, Government Intervention has ALWAYS been trumped by Market Forces. However, 2009 was a year that defied this trend for the following reasons:

1. The Government Intervention taking place was/is WITHOUT precedent
2. Most if not ALL market participants today have little if any knowledge of historic trends and so do not operate based on this information/ insight
3. Most if not ALL market participants operate under the belief that the last 30 years of credit/ financial expansion are “the norm.” This belief system features the following sub-beliefs:

* That the Fed can fix or save the market always
* That stocks are meant to go up and that bear markets are a thing of the past
* That deflation is not possible in the US"

I would argue that over the last 30 (actually, nearly 40) years credit expansion HAS become the "norm" and that deflation truly is NOT possible in the US, since the US abandoned the gold standard and set the precedent of the Printing Press. So long as the Fed/Gov't is not constrained by laws of austerity, deflation will not be possible AND, therefore, the stock market SHOULD continue its long-term upward trend in dollar terms, however, as one could EASILY argue, NOT in terms of VALUE (i.e., adjusted for inflation/the hostess-cupcake-inflat...

U.S. Treasuries: Heading for a Rally or an Implosion?: Part 2

Wed, 17 Feb 2010 19:17:14 -0500

I believe it's called the Fed's "Treasury Plunge-Protection" team...as China (AND Russia) have been selling/not buying/allowing maturity... Greece/Europe will eventually be just a sideshow.

Goldman Sachs (GS) played a key role in helping Greece hide its true debt levels, reports Der Spiegel. In 2002, Greece and Goldman "devised a special kind of swap with fictional exchange rates" that created additional credit of up to $1B for the debt-laden country.

Wed, 17 Feb 2010 18:57:05 -0500

Of all things...Congress should hold hearings into how/where GS has performed these services...(yes, include the US)...instead they want a company president to come in and testify, through a translator, about some engineering problem that, technically, he knows nothing about.

Divining the Next Crisis: All Eyes on the Dollar

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 23:58:49 -0500

Graham,
Not to be facetious, though it is my "style", but is there any evidence that the Fed could placate Treasury demand through "backchannels" (having 3rd party purchase Treasury bonds during sale only to have, a week or two later, the bills sold back to the Fed in order to provide the initial "demand" during initial bidding...) now that the Fed has stopped buying...? Perhaps I'm just grasping at straws................and more straws...and more....OR..perhaps I've had too much to drink....
Cheers!

GMAC Financial Services is reportedly in talks with the Treasury Department for its third lifeline: between $2.8B and $5.6B in fresh capital, on top of the $12.5B the lender has received since December, coming via preferred stock.

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:52:14 -0400

What ever happened to shooting the horse when he came up lame?

Chart of the Day: Median CPI vs. BLS CPI

Thu, 17 Sep 2009 04:45:35 -0400

Mark,
Are you beginning to lay out your case for stagflation, whereas we've had increases in inflation even while losing millions of jobs???

Surging Gold Not Sign of Inflation

Thu, 10 Sep 2009 08:27:17 -0400

How about comparing the price rise in gold from 1982-83 and from 1985-87 against the issuance of U.S. Debt during and around those periods. You may find a stronger correlation.

An Increase in Minimum Wage = A Decrease in Hours

Mon, 27 Jul 2009 09:11:31 -0400

On Jul 26 01:33 PM WAKEUP wrote:

> College professors of a quasi-literary bent are, essentially, unskilled
> workers. Therefore, Dr. Perry should be paid $7.25 per hour, at most.
> Of course, if the minimum wage standard is reduced, he should be
> paid less.

Yes, but he'd get more hours and still be paid the same, in his words~ Sounds like if everyone were paid nothing, we'd have 100% employment across the board.

The One Mega-Trend NO ONE is Talking About

Mon, 13 Jul 2009 16:49:56 -0400

"Thanks to easy credit and cheap goods from China (formal trade with the US opened on 1971), the Boomers operated under the illusion they were getting richer almost every year, when in reality they were spending their and their parents’ savings."

Note that during this time, the government was also spending the savings of the boomer's children. The cash cow has been milked dry.

Richmond Fed Index Rally Suggests Economic Recovery

Tue, 23 Jun 2009 20:04:36 -0400

How's manufacturing in Flint these days?

Will China Drop U.S. Debt? Unlikely

Thu, 18 Jun 2009 20:10:33 -0400

I agree with Wrixon, Option 1.5 is actually that they slow their purchases of Treasuries (note also that they're buying short term Treasuries lately, rather than longer dated paper) and increase their purchases of raw commodities with their existing dollars/Treasuries. This way they can talk tough to keep their own purchasing power while dumping their reserves for commodities or controlling stakes in their producers.

Negative Swap Spreads: Current Game in the Derivatives Market

Mon, 08 Jun 2009 20:04:18 -0400

Dave, what, then, are the near. term macro implications if this swap spread quickly corrects itself (goes back to positive)?

The Falling Real Price of New Cars

Tue, 31 Mar 2009 05:50:02 -0400

What Mark neglects to tell you is that Real Wages are zero to negative during this same period. There is no benefit to American Consumers over this time period except the availability of new and more exotic debt instruments that have buried Joe America to his eyebrows. You'll have to draw the flat line for wages across your computer screen for a better comparison, because Mark isn't going to reveal this dirty little secret.

Helicopter Ben Turns into Ballistic Missile

Wed, 18 Mar 2009 23:57:51 -0400

Could the Fed be buying 300bn in Treasuries because the Chinese told them they'd be selling?

On Mar 18 05:52 PM The Real Deal wrote:

> Fed took this step because of one big thing - all actions thus far
> failed to fix the banks, and as economy further tanks, even more
> banks will be hit. There is no way to arrest the spiral. Except to
> print the money to absorb the banks' bad assets, and to fund Obama
> stimulus package. It is also a reflection that foreigners no longer
> will by Treasuries.
>
> And so here we are. This is probably the last step in monetary policy.
> Either this is the beginning of a fix, or the beginning of hyper-inflation.
> Bernanke made the call. Now it's our turn.

Let's Twist Again, Like We Did Last Summer: FOMC vs. the Dollar

Wed, 18 Mar 2009 23:44:53 -0400

Could the Fed be buying 300bn in Treasuries because the Chinese told them they'd be selling?

Luckiest Generation in History: Young Americans

Sun, 15 Mar 2009 20:53:41 -0400

My apologies, Steve, that's Trillion with a "T"...

Luckiest Generation in History: Young Americans

Sun, 15 Mar 2009 20:51:44 -0400

Steve in Greensboro,
You forgot to mention that the "thousands of dollars in food, housing, cash, clothing, gifts, etc." were, in the larger scheme of things, funded by a loan that you took out on Susan's future and she will be paying for it with interest. My how the "borrow and spend" generations ignore this small (50+ Bn)detail...

On Mar 15 10:00 AM Steve in Greensboro wrote:

> I agree with Dr. Perry. The current generation live in a society
> that is an order of magnitude more wealthy than their parents (who
> were an order of magnitude more wealthy than theirs).
>
> It makes me wonder why this obvious fact didn't prevent more young
> voters from voting left. I know the answer of course. The public
> school system and leftist colleges turn out profoundly ahistorical
> graduates.
>
> Some of you might enjoy the following note from the comments section
> of one of my favorite websites.
>
> www.grouchyoldcripple....
>
> Comment begins:
>
> Guess you heard that 68% of the youth vote went to Obama. My granddaughter
> called this morning to tell me she was one of them. I replied with
> this e-mail:
>
> Dear Susan,
>
> The election of Obama comes down to this. Your grandmother and I,
> your mother, and other productive, wage-earning tax payers will have
> their taxes increased and that means less income left over. Less
> income means we will have to cut back on basic purchases, gifts and
> handouts.
>
> That includes firing the Hispanic lady who cleans our house twice
> a month. She just lost her job. We can't afford her anymore.
>
> What is the economic effect of Obama's election on you personally?
>
>
> Over the years, your grandmother and I have given you thousands of
> dollars in food, housing, cash, clothing, gifts, etc. By your vote,
> you have chosen another family over ours for help. So in the future,
> if you need assistance with your rent, money for gas, tires for your
> car, someone to bring you lunch, etc. ... call 202-456-1111 .
>
> That's the telephone number for the Office of the President of the
> United States. I'm sure Mr. Obama will be happy to send a check from
> his personal or business accounts, as we have, or leave cash in an
> envelope taped to his front door for you, as we have.
>
> It's like this. Those who vote for the President of the United States
> should consider what the impact of an election will be on the nation
> as a whole and not just be concerned with what they can get for themselves
> (welfare, stimulus checks, etc.). What Obama voters don't seem to
> realize is that the government's money comes from taxes collected
> from tax paying families. Raising taxes on productive people means
> they will have less money to spend on their families.
>
> Congratulations on your choice. For future reference, you might attempt
> to add up all you've received from us, your mom, Mike's parents and
> others and compare it to what you expect to get over the next four
> years from Mr. Obama.
>
> To congratulate Mr. Obama and to make sure you're on the list for
> handouts, write to:
> The White House
> 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. NW
> Washington , DC 20500
>
> Love you Susan, but call the number listed above when you need help.
>
> Grandpa
>

What Does Annual Real GDP Growth Teach Us?

Thu, 05 Feb 2009 08:05:52 -0500

I second the point provided by bbzz24... Mark needs to break down these data to show the percent of GDP growth supplied by government spending, as well as include a separate histogram to show the increase in government spending throughout this same period. We need better presentation of these data.

On Feb 05 04:38 AM bbzz24 wrote:

> in short: it teaches nothing.
> since GDP numbers include government spending financed through debt
> as well (aka budget deficit) it makes no sense to look at GDP.
zimbabw...
> has triple digit GDP growth (adjusted for inflation) yet they are
> not the envy of the world.

Thoughts on an Inflationary Depression

Tue, 03 Feb 2009 05:29:01 -0500

Do you see any chance that the current economic uncertainty will induce a significant increase in the savings rate, back to the rate(s) in the early '80s following the last bout of stagflation? This may be the only way to stem the rapid inflation you have otherwise indicated, however I would like your input on this possibility...?

U.S. Housing Market: 1982 vs. 2009

Sun, 01 Feb 2009 12:12:39 -0500

Mark,
Please also include a graph of the national savings rate with your housing affordability data. We need practical, dimensional data, not just a single piece of the puzzle.

How Much Has Government Grown?

Thu, 22 Jan 2009 08:07:13 -0500

Mark,
Is there any way you could create the same chart you have below (govt employees as a percent of total) for the manufacturing and construction data for these same dates? I'd be interested to see what we can see from those data....

Lower Gas Prices Are Saving U.S. Consumers $1 Billion a Day

Mon, 29 Dec 2008 18:26:11 -0500

This 1bn in savings obviously makes up for the jobs lost in the last number of months.... I'm sure people in Michigan would celebrate if they only knew how much more money they have....