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  • Thoughts on an Inflationary Depression [View article]
    Do you see any chance that the current economic uncertainty will induce a significant increase in the savings rate, back to the rate(s) in the early '80s following the last bout of stagflation? This may be the only way to stem the rapid inflation you have otherwise indicated, however I would like your input on this possibility...?
    Feb 3, 2009. 05:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Housing Market: 1982 vs. 2009 [View article]
    Please also include a graph of the national savings rate with your housing affordability data. We need practical, dimensional data, not just a single piece of the puzzle.
    Feb 1, 2009. 12:12 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Has Government Grown? [View article]
    Is there any way you could create the same chart you have below (govt employees as a percent of total) for the manufacturing and construction data for these same dates? I'd be interested to see what we can see from those data....
    Jan 22, 2009. 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lower Gas Prices Are Saving U.S. Consumers $1 Billion a Day [View article]
    This 1bn in savings obviously makes up for the jobs lost in the last number of months.... I'm sure people in Michigan would celebrate if they only knew how much more money they have....
    Dec 29, 2008. 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 30-year bonds are helping Treasurys snap a two-day slump, after U.S. GDP shrank more than initial estimates, and lifted by month-end buying. 30-year +1.61%. 10-year +1.19%. 5-year +0.56%. 2-year +0.16%.  [View news story]
    "Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 13.6 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 6.6 percent in the second."
    What would the new preliminary GDP have looked like without the bouy of this increase in government spending?
    Nov 25, 2008. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ban on Short Sale Ends - Hold Your Breath [View article]
    Is there any chance that the shorts would want to go out and cover pretty quickly (today?) now that they have the opportunity and don't want to be stuck in this same position, potentially, days or weeks from now?
    Oct 9, 2008. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nouriel Roubini Predicts (Surprise!) a Long Recession [View article]
    Due to the fact that things have been unraveling faster than Rubini had expected, would that imply that we're moving along toward a FASTER turnaround than he's expecting? Just trying to look for positives...
    Oct 9, 2008. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortis Fails: Who's Next? [View article]
    Mr Cullen,
    Doesn't it matter more (most?) as to what types of assets are leveraged? Would this explain why a Fortis fell before the other higher-leveraged institutions on this listing? I believe that we all, perhaps yourself included, would love to know which assets are leveraged at all of the large financial institutions. If this information is available, is there a location where it may already be compiled?
    Oct 1, 2008. 10:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting $1T Subprime Mortgage Losses in Perspective [View article]
    Dr. Perry. Let's just use our imagination a little here. Let's use an often-advertised figure of the top 10% of US earners hold 90% of all US wealth. If we use a little extrapolation, then we might estimate that 50.4 T of that overall net worth is held by that top 10%, which I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that they are much less affected by subprime loan losses. That leaves 5.6 T for the remaining 90% of the population which would be more likely to be affected by subprime loan losses. This would mean that, compared to the lower 90% of US household wealth, global subprime loan losses is 17.9% of their wealth. ...Now THAT is a significant loss; let's get off of our white horse and get back down to earth where most people are NOT billionaires or millionaires... I'd suggest walking the darker streets of Flint some late evening for a little more insight.
    Jul 11, 2008. 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1,238 Billion Barrels of Oil Reserves: Is This an Oil Price Bubble? [View article]
    Another regurgitation of partial facts and out of context quotes from Dr. Perry! Nothing about percent recoverable or cost of recovery, or about how much is light, sour, or heavy crude, or bitumen... What a waste of time; this guy never breaks it down in terms of true economics.
    Jun 12, 2008. 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Concern for Inflation Inflated? [View article]
    Dr. Perry,
    I understand that you enjoy adding a quick writeup on SA from time to time, but when are you going to give us some of the work that you're capable, as an academic, of producing yourself? Why don't you and your students gather data on the median Michigan family and head out to Meijer and gather REAL data on price inflation and show us some of your own data on the subject. As we all know, we can't trust someone else's data, particularly when we can't replicate it ourselves (i.e., your referenced Gov't data). Take some time off from the arduous task of regurgitating someone else's information and bring us some of your own.
    May 15, 2008. 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1970s Style Stagflation? I Don't Buy It [View article]
    Dr. Perry,
    As an academic, I believe that you'd know that your data are irrelevant to each of your "Bottom Line" statements. As you point out in each statement, the data do not support the argument that we are ENTERING a period of stagflation, however you compare the 70s stagflation data with data from 2001-08. If we are ENTERING a period of stagflation, you should only be able to compare the last few months (perhaps beginning Jan.'08) with the beginning data of the 70s stagflation (1974 per your report's title).
    This kind of comparison would have had you laughed out of your dissertation defense... Give us the work you're capable of....
    Feb 23, 2008. 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons to Short Housing Stocks [View article]
    In the Denver, CO area, I've spoken with building supervisors in developments who have told me that, at least during the current winter months, it's costing them approx. $350.00/day for each house that sits idle. Lennar, for example, has quite a few communities in the area that I can think of, and within those, they might have 20-25 homes sitting empty...and many communities in surrounding areas.. Just those 20-25homes, by these calculations, are costing them well over 200,000.00/month; I can only TRY to imagine how many homes they have throughout, not only the state, but the U.S. How do any of these builders plan to survive?
    Jan 31, 2008. 11:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Yin and Yang Of The Housing Rebound [View article]
    Crescenzi's point that population growth/household formation creates the need for 1.1-1.2million homes each year neglects to point out that the majority of these new "families" are going to be in the lower/middle income range, have lower/middle credit, and will probably NOT be buying a large number of NEW homes, but *may* be able to take a bite out of the growing number of less-expensive existing homes.
    Better luck next time Crescenzi...
    Jan 24, 2008. 11:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Slow Growth' Or Recession? [View article]
    Why does everyone think the Fed is responsible to restore "GREED" (confidence) to the market. It's become very evident that people have been SPOILED by the years of the Greenspan-nipple... Like people who never discipline their children and then turn around and blame society when they get into trouble.... WoW!
    Jan 21, 2008. 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment