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  • Richmond Fed Index Rally Suggests Economic Recovery  [View article]
    How's manufacturing in Flint these days?
    Jun 23, 2009. 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will China Drop U.S. Debt? Unlikely  [View article]
    I agree with Wrixon, Option 1.5 is actually that they slow their purchases of Treasuries (note also that they're buying short term Treasuries lately, rather than longer dated paper) and increase their purchases of raw commodities with their existing dollars/Treasuries. This way they can talk tough to keep their own purchasing power while dumping their reserves for commodities or controlling stakes in their producers.
    Jun 18, 2009. 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Negative Swap Spreads: Current Game in the Derivatives Market  [View article]
    Dave, what, then, are the near. term macro implications if this swap spread quickly corrects itself (goes back to positive)?
    Jun 8, 2009. 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Falling Real Price of New Cars  [View article]
    What Mark neglects to tell you is that Real Wages are zero to negative during this same period. There is no benefit to American Consumers over this time period except the availability of new and more exotic debt instruments that have buried Joe America to his eyebrows. You'll have to draw the flat line for wages across your computer screen for a better comparison, because Mark isn't going to reveal this dirty little secret.
    Mar 31, 2009. 05:50 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Helicopter Ben Turns into Ballistic Missile  [View article]
    Could the Fed be buying 300bn in Treasuries because the Chinese told them they'd be selling?

    On Mar 18 05:52 PM The Real Deal wrote:

    > Fed took this step because of one big thing - all actions thus far
    > failed to fix the banks, and as economy further tanks, even more
    > banks will be hit. There is no way to arrest the spiral. Except to
    > print the money to absorb the banks' bad assets, and to fund Obama
    > stimulus package. It is also a reflection that foreigners no longer
    > will by Treasuries.
    > And so here we are. This is probably the last step in monetary policy.
    > Either this is the beginning of a fix, or the beginning of hyper-inflation.
    > Bernanke made the call. Now it's our turn.
    Mar 18, 2009. 11:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Twist Again, Like We Did Last Summer: FOMC vs. the Dollar  [View article]
    Could the Fed be buying 300bn in Treasuries because the Chinese told them they'd be selling?
    Mar 18, 2009. 11:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Luckiest Generation in History: Young Americans  [View article]
    My apologies, Steve, that's Trillion with a "T"...
    Mar 15, 2009. 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Luckiest Generation in History: Young Americans  [View article]
    Steve in Greensboro,
    You forgot to mention that the "thousands of dollars in food, housing, cash, clothing, gifts, etc." were, in the larger scheme of things, funded by a loan that you took out on Susan's future and she will be paying for it with interest. My how the "borrow and spend" generations ignore this small (50+ Bn)detail...

    On Mar 15 10:00 AM Steve in Greensboro wrote:

    > I agree with Dr. Perry. The current generation live in a society
    > that is an order of magnitude more wealthy than their parents (who
    > were an order of magnitude more wealthy than theirs).
    > It makes me wonder why this obvious fact didn't prevent more young
    > voters from voting left. I know the answer of course. The public
    > school system and leftist colleges turn out profoundly ahistorical
    > graduates.
    > Some of you might enjoy the following note from the comments section
    > of one of my favorite websites.
    > www.grouchyoldcripple....
    > Comment begins:
    > Guess you heard that 68% of the youth vote went to Obama. My granddaughter
    > called this morning to tell me she was one of them. I replied with
    > this e-mail:
    > Dear Susan,
    > The election of Obama comes down to this. Your grandmother and I,
    > your mother, and other productive, wage-earning tax payers will have
    > their taxes increased and that means less income left over. Less
    > income means we will have to cut back on basic purchases, gifts and
    > handouts.
    > That includes firing the Hispanic lady who cleans our house twice
    > a month. She just lost her job. We can't afford her anymore.
    > What is the economic effect of Obama's election on you personally?
    > Over the years, your grandmother and I have given you thousands of
    > dollars in food, housing, cash, clothing, gifts, etc. By your vote,
    > you have chosen another family over ours for help. So in the future,
    > if you need assistance with your rent, money for gas, tires for your
    > car, someone to bring you lunch, etc. ... call 202-456-1111 .
    > That's the telephone number for the Office of the President of the
    > United States. I'm sure Mr. Obama will be happy to send a check from
    > his personal or business accounts, as we have, or leave cash in an
    > envelope taped to his front door for you, as we have.
    > It's like this. Those who vote for the President of the United States
    > should consider what the impact of an election will be on the nation
    > as a whole and not just be concerned with what they can get for themselves
    > (welfare, stimulus checks, etc.). What Obama voters don't seem to
    > realize is that the government's money comes from taxes collected
    > from tax paying families. Raising taxes on productive people means
    > they will have less money to spend on their families.
    > Congratulations on your choice. For future reference, you might attempt
    > to add up all you've received from us, your mom, Mike's parents and
    > others and compare it to what you expect to get over the next four
    > years from Mr. Obama.
    > To congratulate Mr. Obama and to make sure you're on the list for
    > handouts, write to:
    > The White House
    > 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. NW
    > Washington , DC 20500
    > Love you Susan, but call the number listed above when you need help.
    > Grandpa
    Mar 15, 2009. 08:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Annual Real GDP Growth Teach Us?  [View article]
    I second the point provided by bbzz24... Mark needs to break down these data to show the percent of GDP growth supplied by government spending, as well as include a separate histogram to show the increase in government spending throughout this same period. We need better presentation of these data.

    On Feb 05 04:38 AM bbzz24 wrote:

    > in short: it teaches nothing.
    > since GDP numbers include government spending financed through debt
    > as well (aka budget deficit) it makes no sense to look at GDP.<br/>zimbabw...
    > has triple digit GDP growth (adjusted for inflation) yet they are
    > not the envy of the world.
    Feb 5, 2009. 08:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts on an Inflationary Depression  [View article]
    Do you see any chance that the current economic uncertainty will induce a significant increase in the savings rate, back to the rate(s) in the early '80s following the last bout of stagflation? This may be the only way to stem the rapid inflation you have otherwise indicated, however I would like your input on this possibility...?
    Feb 3, 2009. 05:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Housing Market: 1982 vs. 2009  [View article]
    Please also include a graph of the national savings rate with your housing affordability data. We need practical, dimensional data, not just a single piece of the puzzle.
    Feb 1, 2009. 12:12 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Has Government Grown?  [View article]
    Is there any way you could create the same chart you have below (govt employees as a percent of total) for the manufacturing and construction data for these same dates? I'd be interested to see what we can see from those data....
    Jan 22, 2009. 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lower Gas Prices Are Saving U.S. Consumers $1 Billion a Day  [View article]
    This 1bn in savings obviously makes up for the jobs lost in the last number of months.... I'm sure people in Michigan would celebrate if they only knew how much more money they have....
    Dec 29, 2008. 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 30-year bonds are helping Treasurys snap a two-day slump, after U.S. GDP shrank more than initial estimates, and lifted by month-end buying. 30-year +1.61%. 10-year +1.19%. 5-year +0.56%. 2-year +0.16%.   [View news story]
    "Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 13.6 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 6.6 percent in the second."
    What would the new preliminary GDP have looked like without the bouy of this increase in government spending?
    Nov 25, 2008. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ban on Short Sale Ends - Hold Your Breath  [View article]
    Is there any chance that the shorts would want to go out and cover pretty quickly (today?) now that they have the opportunity and don't want to be stuck in this same position, potentially, days or weeks from now?
    Oct 9, 2008. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment