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JKN

JKN
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  • U.S. Drought And Food Inflation: Impact Of Corn, Soybean, Ethanol [View article]
    nice article man keep it coming
    Aug 29, 2012. 11:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 75% Free Fall In Diamond Foods' Stock Price Is Not Enough [View article]
    the CFO and CEO who left bought puts on this thing or told somebody too and made a killing 180k investment into like 2-3M

    wouldnt be surprised if this thing drops to 10
    Feb 13, 2012. 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Surprised To See A Correction [View article]
    i got out on 2/6 with a 10% gain so now i am waiting for a pull-back - i think around early march something will blow up with europe

    either way i am waiting for an obvious pull-back before i hop back in and ride another wave
    Feb 13, 2012. 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley's non-comprehensive table of EU banks' participation in the ECB's LTRO last month shows Italian and Spanish lenders diving in with both feet, with many more than satisfying their 2012 funding needs. "It is clear that Italian and Spanish mid-caps have no other option than to rely upon the LTRO." Data from French lenders has not yet been obtained.  [View news story]
    im glad i went 33% into Ticker: EUFN 2 days ago - european financials are here to stay

    like a repeat of everybody saying all banks are going to 0 in may 2008

    great basket to hold long-term --- loving it
    Jan 19, 2012. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Was Tuesday The Top? [View article]
    Itsgt1 - i am agreeing with you on this one...too many people out of the game already and if returns dont correct over the next 1-3 years then the stock market as a traditional investment vehicle is going to have a more tarnished view then it has today

    Over the first 11 months of 2011, plain-vanilla savings and checking accounts attracted eight times the money as stock and bond mutual and exchange-traded funds, according to data from market research firm TrimTabs.
    The pace accelerated to nearly 13 times from September to November, the most recent month for which data is available.
    SOURCE: http://bit.ly/w5OrEK|editorspicks|&par...

    Eventually when the fear has subsided you will be glad you are locked in somewhere where you can stay for the long-haul. I got out in November completely but back in because i hate being out for so long and believe there are some real deals in the names I am in.

    Sell the rips and buy the dips. If you are going to play the volatilty. But if you are individual stocks and dont have a discipline one move can knock you down a month in gains. So just be diversified and have a list of names you are watching closely is what i would recommend...
    Jan 18, 2012. 10:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Whisper Number Impact: Earnings Preview For BAC, UNP, LUV, MS [View article]
    LUV is a pretty solid airline and has recently bought out airtran to add more locations. Although, I would rather go with EUFN (European Financials) then US Airlines in general I believe LUV is a value play and has long-term growth prospects. However, I don't really like to buy individual stocks...

    LUV plans on opening multiple locations, but the most notable coming up is in Peurto Rico. I believe they are adding Atlanta this year along with other flights in the NE. They just added LaGuardia in the past months and looking to fly into more major cities...

    I only know this because I know a flight attendant that works for Southwest. =)
    Jan 18, 2012. 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tortoise North American Energy: An Attractive Energy MLP Closed-End Fund [View article]
    Tortoise like the name will provide you with long-term growth but just take time to get there. It provides a good dividend and really isn't for a short-term investor. I believe it was priced fairly by the underwriters but in this market new fund launches haven't been too hot.

    I agree that it is a good product, and the fund is constructed well. But like the name signifies this is going to be a slow pace race. However, you get what you expect in the long-run because it is a quality fund.
    Jan 18, 2012. 03:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Was Tuesday The Top? [View article]
    looking long-term into EUFN, VBR, and DGS

    think by the end of the year i will just be glad i opened the position and let the volatility work itself out

    no need to day trade for me just buy long-term
    Jan 18, 2012. 03:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Secrets Of An IPO Trader [View article]
    what do you think about PIPEs...
    Nov 11, 2011. 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Secrets Of An IPO Trader [View article]
    If you and the rest of the world doesn't know about the company going IPO then the company has more then 50% of going down.

    The whole point of the IPO is for the company to get equity financing. And they always try to do it at the highest level possible. There is no incentive for the company to "properly" price there stock at what the market will trade it. So during market efficiency for the new name it could move down immediately if priced wrong by the syndicate/investment bank. Which for a lot of the non-popular names happens.

    You have seen a lot more IPOs then me though. What do you think?
    Nov 11, 2011. 12:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Italy Factor Gets Ugly [View article]
    So I take it you guys are buying Italian debt? =)
    Nov 11, 2011. 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Jefferies As Debt Fears Abate [View article]
    I am waiting for JEF to dip a little lower to around 10 then I am going to move in. I might buy a protective put, but might go uncovered long in my position. I just haven't decided...

    My friend who also works on the sell-side thinks that the 12/20 earnings date will be bad regardless. There are two things that can occur regarding the reporting of this trade on 12/20. JEF can unwind the trade and report a big write-off loss. Or not unwind the trade which will result in more selling in the name. This builds on the general fears the market has given the jolt in recent memory to financial stocks in 2008 that went to 0, and the recent MF Global. I like how you mentioned they were only levered up 13-1 in comparison to 40-1 I think that is important to note...

    There is one thing that concerns me even though I am considering buying. They are always referring to net exposure. They never talk about about the gross exposure in Europe in detail and the potential that they cannot unwind the trade. They are long soveign debt and short securities/futures. This is a big problem with the underlying trade as the sovereign debt is not liquid in this environment...

    If they do fully unwind it then it will result in huge losses and depress the stock. And the question will remain; who was on the other side of that trade and what kind of price did they pay.

    However, given that the stock has already been beaten up so bad I believe expectations are in-line with the expectation that the 12/20 numbers will show that the trade will remain on the books/cannot be unwound.

    If you think like me then this is getting me in a buying mood for the long-term move into JEF

    JEF I think is a good long-term play once the stock reaches 10. this is considering no other news breaks regarding its European debt exposure...However, I believe with the unprecedented disclosure of Jefferies I think that highly unlikely.

    Also if you take a look as far as market negativity and how quick people are still putting on shorts on financials you will understand that this is unsustainable - Don't follow the herd and take advantage of making decisions when the stock is sufficiently depressed for a long-term move.

    But JEF is still very binary. Either its going to get killed on 12/20 or its extremely undervalued at current levels. The risk is yours, but the volatility is there and could warrant the insurance purchase when you put on the trade.

    Buy the dips and sell the rips in this market that is what you have to do during this volatility. However, I am looking at JEF for the long-term maybe 12 month play into the stock with a good amount of cash.

    The question remains to put on the trade now or put it on a week before earnings on 12/20.

    I am a believer that we are in the very early stages of a bull market. I work on the sell-side and just see better banking deals in the past weeks. Also, I believe a lot of names are trading at ridiculous levels and the fundamental business is still functioning well with great prospects...

    When you have 95% of investment books, articles, and people talking about the credit crisis/crunch, that the world is coming to the end, and everything is going to blow up. It makes you think...

    When are people going to get tired of putting leaving cash on the sidelines. When are people going to recognize Obama is in for another term and Romney will not be able to beat the best campaigner of our generation. When we people understand that the world is not coming to an end, and exit out of gold back into depressed stocks.

    I like to believe that time is coming soon, and with all these people on the negative side. Names like this will start showing light. I am a firm beleiver I have get into this but from a trading standpoint I am debating at a $10 level or a week before earnings on 12/20. Would love to hear from you.
    It is also important to note. I would never tell clients to invest in JEF given the amount of risk. This is a personal trade I am going to do. A lot of people I talk to in the industry are negative on the market because of the past couple of years. I can't really blame them given what it has done to the portfolio.
    My gut is just reaching out to me. I will learn how good of a gut I have on 12/20. =)
    Nov 10, 2011. 11:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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