Barry Isaacs

Penn West Energy Trust: My $50 Price Target

Despite fairly compelling logic and analysis, it turns out that PWE is probably an excellent $25-$30 stock rather than a $50 dollar one. Despite high oil and NG prices, PWE has continued to fall and has rarely had a decent day over the past 2 months. Indeed, its decline seems attributable to both rises and declines in energy prices. So for the near term, it appears to have been a poor investment choice.

Because of its yield, some kind of floor exists for its share price so over say the next year or two, those, like me, who were imprudent enough to purchase PWE in the low 30's will likely recoup their losses and show some gains eventually. Too bad. This looked like a good idea at the time...

Penn West Energy Trust: My $50 Price Target

The recently announced $1.5 billion short form shelf registration to raise capital for various entity purposes usually takes the form of a short term share price dilution for existing holders. Is that your reading too, Jack?
Perhaps the recent weakness in PWE's share price is a reflection, inter alia, of concerns regarding this even as oil prices have stiffened somewhat and gas prices have risen.

Penn West Energy Trust: My $50 Price Target

Your analysis and David Bui's sound so diametrically opposed to one another that one has the sense that you are each writing about a different entity. Perhaps Q2 will be decisive in terms of which way the wind is blowing. You confidently maintain that a fairly spectacular quarter is in store while David continues to be sceptical of PWE's near term and long term future even as he looks at the very same data. One of you, it seems, is destined to do what people around here do all the time in the Washington,DC area: revise and extend one's remarks. I bought PWE before you came out with your original piece, Jack, and will continue to hold onto my units--at least until I can see what is behind the Q2 curtain. May the only surprises be welcome ones.